Some stocks have tumbled so much this year it's easy to imagine spectacular recovery stories. I'm talking about the idea of becoming a multibagger for investors ready to bet on better days ahead. Two stocks that could climb fivefold if they make progress toward their goals are Teladoc Health (TDOC 3.31%) and Invitae (NVTA 16.13%).
Teladoc and Invitae shares both have lost more than 70% this year. Teladoc disappointed investors with two massive noncash goodwill impairment charges linked to an acquisition. Invitae has failed to turn growing genetic testing revenue into profit. Moving forward, though, the picture looks brighter for both healthcare players. Which one is more likely to 5x first?
1. The case for Teladoc
Teladoc is a leading player in the world of telemedicine. The company serves more than half of Fortune 500 companies. Teladoc already was growing revenue before the pandemic. But when the health crisis hit, revenue and visits took off -- climbing by triple-digit percentages. That's as people favored online visits over going into a medical office.
Growth has come down from those levels. But revenue and visits still are advancing in the double digits. And Teladoc is growing the important metrics of U.S. paid members and revenue per member from quarter to quarter. Deal size also is on the rise. Teladoc says the average size of deals signed today is 50% larger than the average one a year ago.
Earlier this year, Teladoc reported two billion-dollar impairment charges -- linked to its purchase of Livongo in 2020. That's weighed on the stock. But Livongo, with its strengths in chronic care, eventually could be a key element for Teladoc. Nearly half of Americans suffer from chronic conditions. So, this is an area where need exists.
Teladoc hasn't yet reached profitability. This isn't surprising for a telemedicine company at this stage of its story. And Teladoc did narrow its net loss in the third quarter.
As for valuation, Teladoc is trading at 1.8 times sales. That's around its lowest level ever.
2. The case for Invitae
Invitae sells a variety of genetic tests to healthcare providers and directly to patients. These tests fall into the areas of pregnancy, wellness, cancer, and genetic illness. The idea is to take a test to determine whether you may be at risk for a certain genetic illness -- or whether you may pass risk on to your child.
Revenue hasn't been a problem for Invitae. That's been on the rise. But the company has burned through cash and has been unable to turn revenue growth into profit. As revenue has gained over the past few years, operating losses have deepened.
NVTA Revenue (Annual) data by YCharts
Now, here's the good news. This year, Invitae announced a "realignment" plan meant to streamline the business and lead to positive cash flow. The company is cutting jobs, exiting certain countries, and focusing on products that will best drive growth.
In the third-quarter report, Invitae said it's on track to reach the goal of a cash burn reduction of $326 million next year. And it lowered its 2022 cash burn guidance to the range of $585 million to $625 million. That's down from an earlier forecast of $600 million to $650 million. At the same time, during the quarter, revenue and commercial partnerships climbed in the double digits.
Today, Invitae shares trade a price-to-sales ratio of 1. That's down from more than 24 early last year.
Teladoc or Invitae?
Teladoc and Invitae both represent some risk for investors right now. The market has sanctioned these stocks. And it may be difficult to turn that sentiment around. So, investors who aren't comfortable with risk are better off watching both stories from the sidelines.
But if you are comfortable with risk, you may want to add a few shares to your portfolio. Which one of these players may rise fivefold first? If Invitae can fulfill the promises set forth in its realignment plan, it might score a win here, too.
Invitae's plan means there are several potential catalysts ahead -- for example, progress on cash burn goals or a narrowing of the company's loss. And any progress just might push Invitae ahead of Teladoc in this race to increase fivefold.
