Over the past year, rising interest rates drove many investors away from the market's higher-growth tech stocks. However, a lot of babies were tossed out with the bathwater during that brutal sell-off.
If you can tune out all the near-term noise and stomach some volatility, then it's time to pick up a few of those babies. Here are three promising tech stocks I'd buy in this challenging market: The Trade Desk (TTD 3.35%), Palo Alto Networks (PANW 0.11%), and Cisco Systems (CSCO 0.06%). Let's find out a bit more about these three top tech stocks.
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1. The Trade Desk
The Trade Desk operates the world's largest independent demand-side platform (DSP) for digital ads. DSPs enable advertisers to place real-time bids on advertising space across various digital platforms. It sells advertising space across desktop and mobile devices, but it generates most of its growth from the connected TV (CTV) market -- which has been booming as streaming video services supplant linear TV channels.
Many digital advertising companies struggled over the past year as Apple's (AAPL 1.27%) privacy update on iOS disrupted services that relied heavily on crafting targeted ads with third-party data. The Trade Desk addresses those challenges with Solimar, its new AI-powered platform, which accumulates and analyzes more first-party data for advertisers.
The Trade Desk's revenue rose 26% in 2020 as companies purchased fewer ads during the pandemic, but surged 43% in 2021 as those headwinds dissipated. It expects its revenue to rise at least 32% this year as the ongoing expansion of the CTV market offsets the slower growth of its desktop and mobile markets in this tough macro environment.
Its adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) also grew 33% in 2020 and 77% in 2021, and it anticipates another 30% growth this year. The Trade Desk's stock isn't cheap at 31 times next year's adjusted EBITDA, but I believe its robust growth and exposure to long-term secular tailwinds justify that higher valuation.
2. Palo Alto Networks
Palo Alto Networks is a diversified cybersecurity company that operates three main platforms: Strata, which houses its on-site networking security tools; Prisma, which operates its cloud-native cybersecurity services; and Cortex, its platform for AI-powered threat detection services. Most of its growth has been driven by Prisma and Cortex, which it dubs its next-gen security (NGS) services, over the past several years.
Palo Alto serves more than 80,000 enterprise customers, including almost all of the Fortune 100 companies and the majority of the Global 2000 companies. That scale and diversification enable it to generate more stable growth and profits than many of its smaller cybersecurity peers.
Palo Alto's revenue and adjusted earnings rose 25% and 26%, respectively, in fiscal 2021 (which ended in July of the calendar year) and indicated it was well-insulated from the pandemic. In fiscal 2022, its revenue and adjusted earnings grew another 29% and 23%, respectively.
For fiscal 2023, it expects its revenue to increase 25% to 26% as its adjusted earnings grow 34% to 37%. It also expects to turn profitable by GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) measures this year. Those rock-solid growth rates, which are seemingly impervious to the near-term macro headwinds, make Palo Alto a top bear market buy -- even if its stock looks a bit pricey at 53 times its forward adjusted earnings.
3. Cisco Systems
Cisco, the world's largest networking hardware company, is a solid pick for value-oriented income investors in this tough market. It's a slow-growth company, but it's been expanding its higher-growth cybersecurity and software businesses to gradually reduce its dependence on its slower sales of routers, switches, and other networking hardware.
Cisco's revenue rose just 1% in fiscal 2021 (which ended last July) as its adjusted earnings per share (EPS) remained flat. In fiscal 2022, its revenue and adjusted EPS grew 3% and 4%, respectively, even as its hardware business grappled with component shortages and supply chain disruptions throughout most of the year.
For fiscal 2023, it expects its revenue to rise 4.5% to 6.5% and for its adjusted EPS to grow 4% to 7%. That accelerating growth -- which it attributes to the market's pent-up demand for its networking products coinciding with a gradual resolution of its supply chain challenges -- indicate its long-term goal of growing its revenue and adjusted EPS at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5% to 7% between fiscal 2021 and 2025 is still within reach.
Cisco's stock trades at just 14 times forward earnings, and it pays an attractive forward dividend yield of 3.2%. That low valuation and high yield should make it a solid safe haven stock to own as the bear market drags on.
