Last week was another welcome step up for investors long the market. The "three stocks to avoid" in my column that I thought were going to lose to the market last week -- Big Lots, Baozun, and Coinbase -- fell 4%, rose 26%, and climbed 8%, respectively, averaging out to a hearty 10% gain.
The S&P 500 experienced a 1.1% move higher. I was wrong. I have still been correct in 37 of the past 59 weeks, or 63% of the time.
Now let's look at the week ahead. I see Coinbase (COIN 4.68%), Baozun (BZUN 4.51%), and AeroVironment (AVAV 5.73%) as stocks you might want to consider steering clear of this week. Let's go over my near-term concerns with all three investments.
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1. Coinbase
Cryptocurrencies bounced back slightly last week, and that helped the leading trading exchange for digital currencies recover with its 8% climb. But I don't think the worst is over for the platform.
We've seen a few prolific crypto hubs implode this year. Just when you think there are no more shoes to drop, more start falling. But Coinbase won't collapse anytime soon. It's a conservative player with a strong balance sheet. However, all of the hits that crypto traders have faced -- with their assets frozen at best and lost forever at worst -- is going to hurt all trading exchanges. Consumer confidence isn't going to return overnight. Coinbase bounced back from all-time lows two weeks ago, but the climate is still risky and unkind.
2. Baozun
The biggest gainer from last week's column was Baozun. The Chinese provider of e-commerce tools soared after reporting fresh financials. Hopes that the country will ease pandemic-related shutdowns also got investors excited about China as a reopening play.
The third-quarter results weren't great. Revenue declined 8% to $244.8 million, roughly in line with expectations. Its the third consecutive year-over-year slide in top-line results. Baozun's margins improved, but the bottom line still wasn't bullish. The company that helps global brands get noticed by China's internet users posted an adjusted deficit of $0.03 a share. Analysts were holding out for a small profit. It's the third time in a row that Baozun falls short of the market's profit targets. It has also now missed on the bottom line in four of the past five quarters.
Baozun deserves credit for helping rein in its costs, but last week's pop was an overreaction. With Chinese restrictions capping the growth of homegrown enterprises and scaring away interest in international players, it's hard to see Baozun shining in the near term.
3. AeroVironment
This may seem like a good time to be selling military drones. The war in Ukraine finds allies providing the country with small to midsize unmanned aerial vehicles, and AeroVironment is ready to serve. It reports fresh financials on Tuesday, and Raymond James upgraded the stock last month on a bullish thesis that orders have been strong.
Analysts generally aren't as hopeful. They see revenue declining 7% from the prior year's showing. They also are looking for AeroVironment's profits to fall sharply in Tuesday afternoon's report. It has fallen short of Wall Street earnings expectations in back-to-back quarters heading into this week's financial update. AeroVironment may be a thinking investor's bet on the continuing escalation of military conflicts, but with the stock already up nearly 50% in 2022, it could take a hit if it doesn't deliver a blowout financial performance.
It's going to be a bumpy road for some of these investments. If you're looking for safe stocks, you aren't likely to find them in Coinbase, Baozun, and AeroVironment this week.
