This has been a historic year for all the wrong reasons. The bond market has delivered its worst year on record, the S&P 500 produced its worst first-half return in 52 years, and the nation's central bank is aggressively raising interest rates as the stock market plunges. There simply haven't been many safe havens for investors.
Yet in spite of these challenges, most Wall Street analysts maintain an optimistic tone. The reason being that recessions and bear markets tend to be short-lived. With the major U.S. indexes eventually erasing corrections, crashes, and bear markets over time, it generally pays to be an optimist.
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However, some analysts are taking optimism to an extreme. Based on the highest price targets issued by Wall Street, the following three supercharged growth stocks offer upside ranging between 393% and 1,153% in 2023.
Plug Power: Implied upside of 393%
The first fast-paced company with serious upside is hydrogen fuel-cell solution provider Plug Power (PLUG -5.17%). According to analyst Amit Dayal of H.C. Wainwright, Plug Power can reach $78. For those of you keeping score at home, this would work out to a near-quintupling in the company's share price in 2023.
Dayal's optimism stems from a number of catalysts. First and foremost is the ongoing shift by most developed countries toward a renewable-energy-driven future. Plug expects to play a key role in supplying fuel cells for vehicles and industrial equipment (e.g., forklifts), as well as building the infrastructure needed to support fuel cell vehicle refueling.
Additionally, Dayal is excited about management's efforts to improve operating margin while continuing to rapidly growing sales. Earlier this year, Dayal cited the opening of the company's fuel cell gigafactory in New York (this occurred in mid-November) and the rollout of next-generation GenDrive units, which are less costly to service, as reasons the company's margin can improve.
But the biggest catalyst of all might just be Plug Power's ability to forge partnerships and joint ventures. It landed an equity investment from SK Group in early 2021 and is working with Renault via a joint venture to go after a significant portion of Europe's light commercial vehicle market. These partnerships should help lift Plug from just over $500 million in sales in 2021 to a company-forecast $3 billion in revenue by 2025.
However -- and this is the big "however" -- Plug Power isn't profitable, and the growing likelihood of a U.S. recession, coupled with high inflation in most developed countries, could coerce businesses and governments to postpone their green-energy transition/spending to a later date.
With Plug Power already valued at north of $9 billion, a lot of its future sales growth appears to be baked in. Until the company can plant its proverbial feet in the ground and deliver on the bottom line, a $78 price target will be hard to justify.
Bionano Genomics: Implied upside of 474%
A second supercharged growth stock with monumental upside, at least according to one Wall Street analyst, is small-cap genome analysis company Bionano Genomics (BNGO -4.73%). If Oppenheimer analyst Francois Brisebois is correct, Bionano shares will hit $12 in 2023, which would represent upside of a cool 474%.
Although Brisebois is the current analyst covering Bionano for Oppenheimer, it was his predecessor, Kevin DeGeeter, who primarily laid out the case for Bionano Genomics running to $12. In DeGeeter's view, Bionano's optical genome mapping (OGM) system, known as Saphyr, has demonstrated that it's faster, less expensive, and in many ways more effective at identifying structural genome variations than other OGM systems.
One thing investors don't have to worry about with Bionano Genomics is a lack of data demonstrating Saphyr's efficacy. Over the past two years, the company has released numerous studies and data points extolling Saphyr's ability to recognize structural variations in everything from various types of cancer to genetic disorders and recurrent pregnancy loss. In theory, Saphyr can play a key role in helping researchers and drug developers fight hard-to-treat diseases.
Another positive for Bionano Genomics is its healthy cash position. After its share price went parabolic to begin 2021, management wisely chose to issue stock to raise plenty of capital. The company ended September with approximately $180 million in cash, cash equivalents, and available-for-sale securities. That's more than enough to offset quarterly losses as the company continues to innovate and look for ways to expand Saphyr's utility.
So, why is Bionano Genomics at $2.09 per share and not $12? The answer to that question largely has to do with Saphyr not being an approved diagnostic system by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Without this approval, Saphyr's utility is limited within the United States. It's not exactly clear if and when Saphyr might get the green light from the FDA, either.
Although Bionano's cash does provide a somewhat safe floor, the ceiling proposed by Brisebois and DeGeeter doesn't seem achievable without FDA support.
Image source: Getty Images.
Novavax: Implied upside of 1,153%
The third supercharged growth stock with truly jaw-dropping upside potential, based on the price target of one analyst, is biotech stock Novavax (NVAX 2.06%). According to H.C. Wainwright analyst Vernon Bernardino, who last updated his firm's price target in March 2022, Novavax is poised to hit (drum roll) $207 per share. That represents a whopping 1,153% upside from where shares ended this past week.
Bernardino's price target, which sits as the high-water mark among covering analysts, was based on the idea that Novavax would receive authorization to sell its protein-based COVID-19 vaccine, NVX-CoV2373, worldwide. Whereas the Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines rely on messenger-RNA (mRNA) technology, the Novavax vaccine is differentiated in that it relies on an older and more traditional application of introducing harmless pieces of spike protein to teach a person's immune system how to fight and/or prevent infection. The thinking here is that folks who were leery of getting an mRNA vaccine might be more willing to receive an initial series or booster shots from Novavax's protein-based COVID-19 vaccine.
Something else that's working in Novavax's favor is the efficacy of NVX-CoV2373. Only three COVID-19 vaccines have reached the highly coveted 90% vaccine efficacy (VE) level. Those being Moderna (94.1%), Pfizer/BioNTech (95%), and Novavax (90.4%) with its U.S./Mexico trial in 2021. Even though VE is just one measure of efficacy, it's a strong enough headline number to keep Novavax in the global rotation as a major initial series and booster vaccine player.
Similar to Bionano, Novavax is swimming with cash. The company ended the third quarter with $1.28 billion in cash and cash equivalents, which is more than enough to cover the future repayment of its convertible notes and fuel ongoing research. In particular, Novavax could be one of the first drug developers to bring a combination vaccine targeting COVID-19 and influenza to market.
But even being a shareholder, I don't in any way foresee $207 as a viable price target for Novavax in 2023. With the company enduring numerous emergency-use filing delays and production snafus, it missed out on most of the low-hanging fruit in developed markets in 2022. Moving forward, it'll primarily be focusing its attention on recurring booster shots in developed countries and initial series vaccinations in emerging markets.
While I believe Novavax is an amazing value at its current share price, it could take a couple of quarters before Wall Street realizes that as well. If sales growth continues, losses shrink, and the company advances its combination vaccines, it could certainly end 2023 on a much higher note than it'll finish 2022.
