Down nearly 85% in 2022. That's the situation for Invitae (NVTA 200.00%) stock. There's no way to spin that as positive news. However, this steep sell-off is also water under the bridge.
Could Invitae be a good pick to buy going forward? Opinions vary. Here are the bull and bear arguments for Invitae stock.
Bull case: A path toward positive cash flow
Adria Cimino: It's true Invitae has struggled to turn revenue gains into profit. But it made a move in July that may have put it on the right path. The company launched a strategic business realignment plan. The goal is to bring Invitae to positive cash flow as quickly as possible.
How does Invitae plan to do it? The company aims to exit certain countries and focus on its core business.
For example, Invitae will serve fewer than a dozen geographies worldwide. It's chosen to stick with ones most likely to meet cash flow goals. Invitae will also suspend products or programs that aren't directly linked to its main genetic testing business. The plan also involves job cuts and various efforts to streamline day-to-day operations.
If all goes smoothly, Invitae expects to reach $326 million in annualized cost savings by the end of next year. And the plan should extend the company's cash runway to the end of the following year.
Since Invitae announced this plan, it's reported earnings for one quarter. And the company is making progress. Invitae said in its third-quarter update that it's on track to reach its cost savings goal. The company lowered its cash burn guidance for the 2022 full year -- to the range of $585 million to $625 million. That's down from the range of $600 million to $650 million. That means it expects to go through less cash than planned to operate its business.
Invitae has grown revenue significantly over the past five years. So there is demand for its genetic tests. That's definitely positive. As for the shares, they're trading at about 1x sales. This looks like a good entry point -- if Invitae meets its realignment plan goals.
Invitae isn't the best pick if you're a cautious investor. If the company struggles to cut costs and reach positive cash flow, the stock could tumble. But if you don't mind some risk, right now -- during this recovery stage -- could be the best time to get in on Invitae.
Bear case: Too much risk in an uncertain market
Keith Speights: If we were in a raging bull market, I think that Invitae might be worth a look. But we're not. Instead, the U.S. could be headed toward a recession. In my view, Invitae comes with too much risk to buy in such an uncertain market.
I'm glad to see that Invitae is achieving progress in reducing its cash burn. However, there's still a possibility that the company could run out of money without a dilution-causing stock offering.
Even more worrisome to me is that the company still isn't anywhere close to generating a profit. That's a huge red flag with the current market conditions.
Perhaps we could cut Invitae some slack with its lack of profitability if it was delivering sizzling sales growth. That's not the case, though. In Q3, Invitae's revenue increased by only 16.7% year over year. The company expects only low double-digit revenue growth for full-year 2022. That's not bad, but it's not strong enough to put the stock on a front burner for investors.
While investors shouldn't attempt to be market timers, they should still look at the prevailing winds in deciding which stocks to buy and when. I don't think the time is right for Invitae.
Bull or bear?
Which argument is more compelling? It probably will come down to your risk tolerance and time horizon.
The DNA testing market could have tremendous growth prospects. For example, some estimate that the hereditary cancer testing market penetration is only between 10% and 20% of potential patients. Invitae could be one of the biggest winners in this market over the long run. On the other hand, it could remain a highly volatile stock over the near term.
