Roll out the red carpet! It's time for Rule Breaker Investing to look back at its top 10 episodes of 2022. We've got guest stars galore! Fools of all stripes who made us smarter, happier, and richer in this challenging year.
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David Gardner: This year has been one for the ages. Frequently, contrary to expectations -- sometimes to all expectations. Life, death, a lot of growth, regrets, changing our minds. Reactions and counter-reactions. What a year. I'm only just talking about this podcast. Movies have their Oscars, television has its Emmys, music has its Grammys, and Broadway, its Tonys. I'm not really sure what podcasts have, but the one podcast I know best anyway -- this podcast -- has its Besties. You deserve it. We deserve it. All the stars are back. Looking back at this year's work together. Looking ahead to 2023. All tied up in a bow for you -- the Besties of 2022 -- only on this week's Rule Breaker Investing.
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Welcome back to this, possibly the most special edition of Rule Breaker Investing this year. Cameos for many of my best guests this year, reflecting back and looking forward. It's our Besties of 2022. I've identified 10 of my favorite podcasts that we brought to you this year. These are not ordered, by the way. These are not ranked in any way, shape, or form. But looking back and thinking through the roster of the 50 new podcasts we brought you so far this year, I thought: What are 10 that stand out to me -- and I hope, to you? And why not talk briefly about them and when possible, have some voices return to share some reflections both about the year that was and the year that will be?
Now again, these are not ranked, and of the 40 podcasts that will not be included here, I wouldn't want anybody to think I didn't think they were really great too. I love all my children. So we have an Author from August that I'm bringing in this week, but it doesn't mean that the other Authors in August weren't each spectacular -- because they were, but you can only fit so much in a Besties of 2022. Just like the Oscars and Emmys and Grammys and Tonys. In the end, the Besties have to pick only one, or actually, only 10.
Of course, a big reason for doing the Besties every year is to encourage you, dear listener, if you didn't hear one of these 10 podcasts, in fact, to go back and listen to our Besties.
Now before I get started, I want to mention next week's podcast and that's "The Market Cap Game Show." Next week's edition will include one exciting new rules tweak and is guaranteed to bring you some Foolishness and a lot of holiday cheer. So get the wood in the fireplace, invite the in-laws over, time for warm cider -- traditional or hard -- and live it up with us next week with "The Market Cap Game Show, Holiday Edition" to help you close out the year.
That's the second to last podcast of this year, but let me in particular also mention our last podcast of the year, which is, of course, your mailbag. Now the reason I'm underlining that is because we're recording both of those podcasts I just mentioned early next week. That way, Rick and I can enjoy our holidays, and you can too knowing that we're bringing you awesome podcasts to close the year. But we're doing them ahead of time, so we have extra time with family. Thus, if you would like to be featured on the year-end mailbag, you need to write to us right away. We are recording that next week, so we'll need to hear from you now or right after finishing this week's podcast or over the weekend.
Anyway, did I get it right with Besties picks? Did I overlook a gem? Did one of my all-star guests improve your life this year? Do you maybe have a story about that? Well, the email address is [email protected], and of course, you can also tweet us @RBIpodcast.
So to summarize again, next week, "The Market Cap Game Show." The week after, the year-end mailbag. But we need to hear from you right away if you'd like to be considered for that mailbag.
Now, ladies and gentlemen and Fools, everywhere the red carpet has been rolled out. You are invited and we welcome you to this year's Rule Breaker Investing podcast Besties, complete with our own theme music, chosen specially, of course, by my producer, Rick Engdahl. Rick, thank you for another great year. I know the process for selecting the theme music for our Besties every year is multilayered. At times it can be onerous. One of the bigger challenges in the world of entertainment, really, the Besties' theme music each year. Rick, can you briefly detail how that all came together this year, and what do you have for us?
Rick Engdahl: Well, I'm not going to spoil anything, so I can't tell you what I have coming. I wouldn't want to spoil it for anybody, least of all myself. How it comes together? There's a mindfulness practice. I sit down with my instruments -- and I certainly never would think of searching any stock music site or anything like that. That's definitely not how I do it.
David Gardner: Certainly not, Rick. Well, I don't think you've composed any original music for our Besties this year, but those who can't see Rick -- and no one can because this is an audio podcast -- but I see Rick through Zencastr every week to do this podcast, and behind him are about four different keyboards, a guitar or two, maybe, I don't even know, some Renaissance instruments somewhere in your house. Rick, you are a very talented musician and photographer by the way. But I think what you're saying, in so many words, is this is not original music that you're about to theme us in with this year.
Rick Engdahl: Well, there are some samples that I might use in my competitions.
David Gardner: Bestie Number 1. Well, the first Bestie this year goes to "Market Got Ya Down?" That was originally published on March 16 of this year. Now the intent was, with "Market Got Ya Down?", to speak to you and me really often on this podcast, I'm talking to me too about how it feels to watch your stocks lose money, sometimes really fast. Sometimes even to get cut in half once every decade or so, which is pretty much how things have been for me over the last 18 months. With that podcast, I'll remind you of three quick points I made. I'm not going to illustrate them here because it's all there in the March 16 "Market Got Ya Down?" podcast. But the three quick points to remention here are that the pain of loss is three times the joy of gain. While that's true of human psychology in investing, it's actually not true at all. So don't let the mindset that all of us have evolved over ages as human beings, always worrying about the downside, control your investing decisions.
Because the joy of gain, the math of it will show for any investor over the long term, the math of it will show the joy of gain is infinite times the pain of loss. You need to be reminded of that, especially in year 2022. I also mentioned in that podcast that picking market highs and then ultimate market lows and saying things like, "It took 18 years to get back to even" -- you'll sometimes your market historians or other market articles talk about that. That totally misses such an important point, which is that over that 18 years where you pick the very highest high just before things hit some bad low and took a while to get back to even -- over those 18 years, you and I are, I hope, should be at least investing all the way through. So over those 18 years, we are way past even if we just kept investing Foolishly every two weeks. Don't be misled by these ideas that it's going to take forever even to get back to even. Not true.
Finally, I mentioned Pascal's Wager. Some of my listeners will know Blaise Pascal far better than I, I'm not going to go deep on this one.
But it always seems smart with Pascal anyway, to me, to wager for the market -- to stay invested because we're betting on a good future. By the way, in this Pascal's market wager, if we're wrong, our money and our stock market money won't make much of a difference anyway. So if the world is all coming to naught, then investing won't matter much at all. Therefore, we should invest with the assumption the world will get better. By the way, that's been an awfully good bet to make for a few centuries now anyway. So I don't know if that provides you any respite, any solace, even when the market has gotten you down. But I'm here to remind you of all of the good times, and they certainly far outnumber the bad times.
So why was "Market Got Ya Down?" a Bestie? Well, I think I just illustrated why. I hope it's going to be a timeless reminder, the podcasts you can go back and listen to during any bad time or pass along to a friend in need of some empathy, it should stand the test of time, I hope.
Part of what I did with the opening for that podcast, where I spoke directly to our market drops, the pain of that, the mindset -- we need the opening of that podcast, which sounded freshly written for March 16 of 2022. Well, capital-F Foolishly, I actually had simply pulled from a previous podcast I did seven years before, when the market was indeed in its own decline. I concluded we've seen market declines before. We're seeing them right now. We certainly are. They will happen again in future. That's why I'm concluding it's not to be feared really. Certainly should not ruin your love of investing when markets declined as they have these last 18 months, or change your mindset or most of all your approach of saving and investing. Saving and investing, rinse and repeat your whole life long.
Last thing I'll note about that podcast is it was the podcast when I believe I first invoked my big line for this year, reiterated as an uber-theme any number of times on Rule Breaker Investing since. That was the phrase, and I ended the podcast with that phrase, pulled from Pixar. Thank you again, Dory. Just keeps winning. "Market Got Ya Down?" is a Bestie for 2022.
The second Bestie goes to "The Power of Regret" with Dan Pink, originally published on Feb. 2 of this year. Now, for his book, The Power of Regret, Dan Pink fomented an entire project, his regret project, where he had thousands of people around the world submit their biggest regrets, and Dan used that repository of human knowledge and emotion to spin out a fantastic book that speaks to and helps us understand the power of regret. Now if you haven't read the book yet, put it on your 2023 reading list. You'll learn that more of our fellow humans have regrets of inaction versus regrets of action, and that is in part because regrets of action, when we do something and screw up, Dan explains, well, we can then go back and make up for that.
You can say you're sorry, but there is no such way to fix regrets of inaction. You'll also learn that you really shouldn't say things like, "Hey, I got no regrets," "That's how I live my life, no regrets." You'll learn about the four types of regrets: foundation regrets, boldness regrets, moral regrets, and connection regrets. I even learned in that podcast as Dan broke down regrets into a taxonomy of four categories that he admires taxonomy itself and, at least he did back then, had a stuffed doll of Charles Darwin on his desk. "Power of Regret" was not just a Bestie for the excellent work enabling more human flourishing, which when I think about it is maybe what I care about most, but also reintroduces us to the wonderful personality of Dan Pink, a perfect mix of intelligence and fun.
I am delighted to tell you now that Dan Pink is back for a cameo in celebration of this year's Bestie for "The Power of Regret." Dan, welcome back to Rule Breaker Investing.
Dan Pink: Thank you, David. Of course, I am joined by my stuffed Charles Darwin doll who will be whispering answers into my ear.
David Gardner: I often wish we were a video podcast. We probably should be at some point. Listeners cannot see that remarkable doll, but Charles Darwin has not much hair up top.
Dan Pink: No.
David Gardner: A ton, not just beard, but like Santa Claus, I would say first of all. Santa Claus without the red cap.
Dan Pink: In this Charles Darwin doll, he has a very long beard and he has this vest and these cool shoes. It's almost like he has a hipster vibe going if you look at him.
David Gardner: Well, Dan, you are the first of a cavalcade of guests, I'm going to call you a personality or guest personalities on this week's podcast. I'm going to ask each of my guests two questions. The first is, Dan, what's one reflection that you have now about that podcast we did together? Now I have to admit it was almost a year ago. Your memory is, I hope better than mine. I will point out for numerologists, it was on 02/02/2022, which is really weird when you think about it, but, Dan, what's one reflection you have now about that podcast we did together?
Dan Pink: Well, one of them is that I didn't realize that you counted in base 3.
David Gardner: 012, 012.
Dan Pink: I don't know if I have a reflection, David, about that podcast per se, but I do have, I guess, a reflection about just doing that podcast because as you know, you and I have known each other for a long time and we've talked about a lot of the books that I've written and a lot of the stuff that you've done. And so to me, it's like, life is moving on and here we get to go back to the Fool and talk to the Fool, and for me, it's just a great marker in time. Writing books gives me an opportunity to reacquaint with all the people at the Fool, including you. That's what I remember most of anything else.
David Gardner: Thank you, Dan. You can't put your foot in the same river, but it is the same river. Both are true.
Dan Pink: Well, it's a different river, but it's still a good river. It's a valuable river. It's a rewarding river. It's an icy cold river stocked with all kinds of great fish.
David Gardner: Do you have any regret about the book The Power of Regret?
Dan Pink: I don't think so. I don't have any deep regrets. Actually, I do. I feel like the final third of the book, I wish I had organized it in a slightly different way. As I've gone out and talked about it and had interviews about it and tried to explain it to people, I realized that there was a better way to explain it. Now, the good news here is that with books, you can sometimes get a second bite at the apple. When the paperback edition comes out, I will likely make some small changes during that to that back third to reflect some of the things that I've learned since the book came out.
David Gardner: Thank you, Dan. That's great, and we look forward to the paperback. Is that headed our way in 2023, by the way?
Dan Pink: I think, we don't have an exact date yet. It should be sometime in 2023, probably late 2023.
David Gardner: Nice. My second question for my guests this week, Dan Pink: What's a wish, an interesting thought, or a prediction that you have for the year 2023?
Dan Pink: A wish, an interesting thought, or a prediction? I'm going to go for prediction. Again, it's not that great of a prediction because I would have made this prediction a month ago and I feel like in the last week, the world caught up, but I am convinced that this year, the world of generative AI -- a world of AI that is actually creating things, not finding things, not finding answers that already exist, but truly creating things that have never been created -- I think that's a big deal and I think this is the year that it's really going to crest, and all of the jabbering about the metaverse or about crypto is going to seem pale in comparison to the effect that generative AI is going to have on how we work and how we live.
David Gardner: My son was already on this and you're talking about the last month because of I think ChatGPT among others.
Dan Pink: Exactly.
David Gardner: My son had already registered. I registered earlier this week and chatted briefly with ChatGPT and one thing a friend of mine said is you're witnessing right now in live time the death of the college essay, which is an interesting question.
Dan Pink: Absolutely
David Gardner: You agree, Dan. When an AI can write a pretty well-written, convincing essay of whatever length we specify for it, even sometimes specifying a genre that we would like it to be produced in -- all of a sudden, if you can't tell the difference between that and a human essay, wow.
Dan Pink: Well, I'll see your son and raise you my son. My son is a sophomore in college and I told him -- it's a couple months ago -- you should be checking this out. My son is also a journalist. He works for the college newspaper and said, I'm sure there are students at your school who are using this to write their papers. Finally, it's like, whatever dad. I sent him a, I had a free link to one of the many generative AI services, not ChatGPT, but building similar technology, it's called Lex, L-E-X.
One of the things that you can do with Lex is that you can write a paragraph or something like that on anything you want and then at the end of the paragraph, type, plus, plus, plus, and it will generate the next paragraph or next two paragraphs. I say, "Hey, just check it out to see what I mean, and I didn't hear from him. Then two days later, I get a text from him. "OMFG! I just typed in the first three sentences of my art history paper and got several paragraphs and they're not bad."
It's pretty remarkable. I have the same, I don't know, almost visceral in my bloodstream, almost physical sensation that I had when I first saw email in 1989 and somebody was sitting at a desk and typing a note to somebody who lived in Seattle or somebody in Connecticut typing a note to someone in Seattle and I'm like: "Wait a second. He just got that right away?"
David Gardner: Incredible.
Dan Pink: You can just do it? This is a big deal. I feel like the ChatGPT is essentially the Netscape Navigator moment for generative AI.
David Gardner: Early days, but we basically will look back and say the world changed forever that month or that year.
Dan Pink: We'll get to a point where we can, again, do the counterfactual. Let's use the same cognitive powers that allow us to experience regret, which is counterfactual thinking, do a counterfactual. Imagine doing your job or my job or any of the work today without email, without the web, without search engines, without smartphones. It's woven into the fabric of our lives that we can scarcely imagine life without it. That's where this generative AI is going.
David Gardner: That is an outstanding prediction and it is more likely given the last few weeks, but you were saying that before it was cool to even point these things out.
Dan Pink: Listen, I was posting images that I generated using, there's Stable Diffusion, there's DALL-E that came out six or eight months ago. I can't remember who said this, but somebody said -- it's a pretty good line. He said, "If you want to see what the next big thing is, look for what's been failing for the last 20 years."
You know what, actually in college, I studied linguistics in the days before there was even a full-fledged discipline of cognitive science, and even then we were talking about AI, artificial intelligence, we can't get it right. We just can't get it. We've been talking about it and suddenly it happens. We saw the same thing with solar power. Solar power failed for 40 years, and now suddenly we're going to have, in two years, more electricity generated with solar than with coal.
David Gardner: Remarkable. Dan, in closing, can you either confirm or deny that your paperback tweaked edition of The Power of Regret will be fully written and edited by Dan Pink?
Dan Pink: I can confirm that now. I want to offer a footnote because the thing is it's an interesting epistemological, metaphysical question. In the previous version of the book, if I used spell check to correct spelling areas, was that fully written by me?
David Gardner: Good point.
Dan Pink: No. I'll let all your millions of listeners debate that over the holiday table.
David Gardner: That feels like the perfect mike-drop moment to say thank you again, Dan, and goodbye. I look forward to seeing you in 2023. Fool on.
Dan Pink: A pleasure, always.
David Gardner: Well, the third Bestie goes to "5 Times I've Changed My Mind, Volume 1," originally published on July 20 of this year, the height of the summer. Now the intent of "5 Times I've Changed My Mind" was to be real, to be human, to draw a contrast between conservatives who conserve and progressives who progress, and realize that it isn't one or the other. I would never give my vote to just one, not the other. Because those are two important human dynamics, keeping what is -- conserving; and making something new -- progressing. I think true wisdom lies in knowing when to conserve and knowing when to progress.
This first episode in the series -- because after all, "5 Times I've Changed My Mind, Volume 1," -- this first episode in the series was really an opportunity for me to share out key times when I completely reversed my beliefs and/or approach to life.
When I do remember this phrase, "flip-flopped," which I think is to be celebrated -- and I know you, dear listener, have done the same and can look back on times in your life when you thought one thing and then you went through a door, whatever shape that door was. Wherever you'd been before you went through that door, you went through that door and ended up in a different place where everything had changed forever.
One example from that podcast, one of the five times I changed my mind for investors, I was speaking to shorting. I initially thought shorting was completely un-American and nobody should do it -- until all of a sudden, I found myself doing it. One of the companies I shorted successfully, of course: Trump Hotels and Casino Resorts. A very successful short for the Motley Fool. Well, before there are any political implications, none were intended back at the time. It was just a very bad business at the time.
But for a young guy who thought shorting was wrong, all of a sudden to be shorting and shorting successfully online at keyword Fool on AOL later www.fool.com on the web -- to all of a sudden be shorting publicly was a huge reversal for me.
And just to continue changing my mind, I don't think I've shorted in 15 or 20 years since because, while I still really appreciate it, -- after all, if you go back and listen to the podcasts, you'll be reminded that it's really just the same thing as buying in opposite order. In both cases, you're hoping to buy low, as they say, and eventually sell high. But in the case of shorting, you're hoping to be selling high and then later buying low. The actions are agnostic. If you're a market-maker or the stock market overall that we're all just buyers and sellers anyway at different points. And yet, at the same time, in recent years, I've realized it's not a great way to make money.
I would far rather buy something and hold it for a long time and watch it multiply in value than constantly be taking a short-term angle, trying to make a little bit of money, maybe 20% on the downside, let's say over six months if I can short a stock at the right moment. In the case of shorting, I've actually changed my mind twice.
Well, why was that podcast a Bestie? While I hope it was liberating for you -- it certainly was for me, to describe how I once thought about things and how I, you now, think about things very differently and I hope it models and even indeed champions this behavior for you, my dear listener, my fellow Fool, because therein lies your growth. Doing that, let's say once a year -- reflecting back on a time that you changed your mind, or at least once every few years, is a worthy effort. So yeah, go back and listen to it. I love doing that podcast. "5 Times I've Changed My Mind, Volume 1" is a Bestie for 2022.
The fourth Bestie goes to "Death Over Dinner," originally published on April 20 of this year. Just a week before, I had welcomed and interviewed author Michael Hebb, who wrote a wonderful book that I believe every one of my fellow humans -- but at least my fellow Fools -- should read, and that's, Let's Talk About Death Over Dinner. Michael's book takes the world's touchiest, most important subject, and breaks it down, makes it accessible, socializes it, even in that he encourages us to host suppers or other social occasions to talk about death. I think the secret here is that you spend most of your time talking and thinking about life, and so I find it profoundly changing and helpful, which is what that book interview was and that was on April 13.
That book interview was indeed one of my favorites of the year and easily could have won a Bestie on its own. But I think most memorable and special was the following week when we unleashed a tour de force on this podcast. Michael graciously hosted a Death Over Dinner with me and a few special guests, including one of my wife's rare appearances on this podcast. I and a few special friends for one hour got to enjoy the author himself talking us through a Death Over Dinner -- well, over Zoom dinner anyway -- and all of you, our dear Rule Breaker Investing listeners, get to listen in. I think it's one that we'll particularly stand the test of time. The mailbag was replete afterward with notes of appreciation and people talking about what an eye-opener that was. Indeed, I'm delighted to be joined now by Michael Hebb. Michael thank you again so much for doing back-to-back podcasts with me in April, and especially for a very special dinner.
Michael Hebb: Absolutely. You say "Jump," I say "When?" Here we are.
David Gardner: Well, listeners won't know this, but Michael is good enough to take a portion of his Saturday -- that's right. A few days ago, since this podcast, of course, comes out on Wednesdays, but we're talking on Saturday over the weekend to fit this in, so thank you very much for spending a little time with us, Michael, and I'm wondering now, thinking back. I know it was eight months ago, what's one reflection that you have now about that podcast we did together?
Michael Hebb: Well, I'll cheat a little and I'll give you two. One is the fact that you are normalizing this conversation into communities that don't necessarily always think about that. The fact that you brought the whole conversation and the whole experience to your community so that people could demystify it or take some of the scare out of it and see that this is a very human, very approachable, sometimes funny, definitely profound conversation that anybody can have. That's one. That means the world to me that you took the time to really just walk people through the paces and have the experience yourself and be vulnerable.
The other thing is that this is a conversation that's perfect for people that think about investing, that think about their legacy, that think about their financial fidelity and health, because there's almost nothing better that you can do than thinking about end-of-life. Thinking about your parents' end-of-life, and loved ones, and prepare. It's actually an exercise of tremendous financial fitness, and we tend to push it on down to when there's a tragedy or crisis or someone's in ICU or someone has died. I think doing it in advance opens up lots of opportunities for people.
David Gardner: Well, thank you, and that is so true and I'm really glad that you underline that. Having updated my will once again this year, I think it's something that we need to pay attention to and of course, we highly over-index on this podcast toward people who do think about this, who are leaving legacies, actively thinking about what makes the most sense, but that does leave the vast majority of the world often without wills as statistics show, or without a lot of thought or care in this area. We're not going to pump ourselves up too much. We're Fools here. We've got a lot to learn about the world. But I do think that you have queued up this as a topic for all of us, and you're the real hero here, Michael, because I remember part of our conversation in that podcast, you were talking about how you're not even a big business person. It's not like you have a huge Twitter following and you're generating all kinds of social media around what you're doing. In fact, I remember one thing you said on that podcast, you said it's in some ways better that you haven't been or tried to be a big personality or the big founder and CEO of this organization because it allows all of us in. It allows all of us to have conversations without feeling like, I don't know, you're Martha Stewart.
Michael Hebb: Yeah. It's a real lead-from-behind phenomenon. It's not about me. It's about the people that actually go beyond just creating a will and have the conversations with their loved ones. Because really, the magic happens in the conversations -- not just in a document, not just in your stock portfolio, but that nuanced conversation that you have with loved ones will inform the decisions you make when somebody is having a hard time. It's never been about me.
David Gardner: Michael, let's talk just a little bit more about you, though, if you will indulge us. What are you working on these days? What's ahead for you in 2023?
Michael Hebb: Well, we just had a huge launch of a new project based on Death Over Dinner. The blueprint has been so successful that we've gone back to the drawing board, and we created a project called Generations Over Dinner, and partnered with the Modern Elder Academy and Chip Conley, and the folks at Stanford Longevity, and CoGenerate. And the idea is, as it sounds, Generations Over Dinner -- how many generations can we get together at the dinner table? And how can we share wisdom across those generations? The focus of the project came out in beta two months ago, and we have an upcoming national day of dinners with AmeriCorps and with the AARP that is focused on bringing together youth activists and folks that are living in senior living. So really, a huge generational gap that we're filling in and bringing people together. And just the idea of young activists sitting down with folks in senior living and gleaning wisdom and sharing their own is something that gets me really excited. So people can find out about that at GenerationsOverDinner.com. It's now live. Anyone can go, you can organize a dinner and take part in one.
David Gardner: Fantastic. For me obviously, you have written the book, Michael, I felt as if I could pick up your playbook and read a couple of hundred pages and understand what you're about and do it myself. Is there a Generations Over Dinner book coming out, or are you staying focused on the web? I know your partners -- Elder Academy, Chip Conley, by the way, somebody I've gotten to know through conscious capitalism, a very good man. I'm delighted to hear about that partnership. Is there a PDF playbook on the website?
Michael Hebb: There is. There's everything you'd need to know to get started. There may be a book. I've started to write about my really interesting family history and also, just the movement as it's taking place in real-time. We'll see if publishers like it. I like it.
David Gardner: GenerationsOverDinner.com. Thank you for that. Michael Hebb. OK, Michael, before I let you go: What's a wish, an interesting thought, or a prediction that you have for the year 2023?
Michael Hebb: My wish is that people come out of their shells. We've launched this project in the midst of post-pandemic reality, we have become pretty asocial. It is very hard to get people to get out of their houses and to think about the social contract and civil society. It takes us being engaged with others. We can't do it while watching HBO or Netflix. I'm just as much at fault for this, but my hope for all of us is that we come back out into the world and we talk to people that share our opinions and more importantly, people that don't.
David Gardner: Michael Hebb, congratulations on your success. Thank you for your work on behalf of us all, and I wish you the very best in 2023. Thank you for being a fellow Fool. Fool on, friend.
Michael Hebb: Absolutely.
David Gardner: Well, onto Bestie number 5. The fifth Bestie goes to "Two Fools: Tennis Pro Sem Verbeek." Originally published on Oct. 12 of this year. This conversation with a professional athlete who is also a Foolish investor was a true delight -- he's about to join me, so Sem can confirm -- but it started as, I think, a mailbag item a year or so ago. Sem, welcome.
Sem Verbeek: Hi.
David Gardner: Writing in. Having had a father who, when you reached out and said, "Dad, I want to start understanding investing or personal finance" -- Sem, am I right that Verbeek senior said, "Hey, check out the fool."
Sem Verbeek: Fool.com was the link that he sent me.
David Gardner: Do you have any idea how he had first found out about us or why he pointed to the Fool?
Sem Verbeek: I haven't actually asked him. I should be very grateful to him though.
David Gardner: This is a very wise, brilliant, mature man.
Sem Verbeek: Yes, absolutely.
David Gardner: Somebody very successful in life with a very successful son. I can't imagine a better source for that advice, but slightly more seriously, I'm delighted because that's what connected us. It was so much fun to have you coming on and telling your story. I think in particular, what I appreciate about you, Sem, is that I feel as if you have both sides of your brain working hard here, and you are an all-around human being. You are a very successful athlete, but you're also very smart. I like these people. People who are really good at lots of different things. I think in some ways, that's what we all need to aspire to be, to do money well.
Regardless of what our profession is, regardless of what our personal background is, we're all going to need to start realizing there's a lot of things to figuring out how to invest, how to save. What insurance should I pick? What box do I check on my retirement investing form? There are so many questions being asked of us as adults, and a lot of us were never given a class, didn't have a brilliant talented dads to point us to fool.com. It's a reminder that we're all Fools. I think that's a lot of the spirit of the Two Fools series.
One year ago I was celebrating Frank Reich, the former Indianapolis Colts head coach who was on this podcast with a similar conversation with me. I guess I'm a sucker for athletes, but it's fun again to talk to people who are really good at something, namely sports, but also who have a great mind for money.
Sem, how are you doing? How are you spending your holidays, and what are you looking forward to for the year ahead?
Sem Verbeek: Well, first of all, thank you so much for having me back. It was such a pleasure to spend some time with you and any chance that we can get together, I think is a great time. I'm now in Amsterdam. I'm playing the National Championships at the moment. That's a fun one for this week.
David Gardner: Is it not cold in Amsterdam?
Sem Verbeek: It is. It is literally freezing right now, but we're playing inside, thankfully.
David Gardner: I definitely expected they were playing inside, but I still feel as if the Amsterdam Championships could be scheduled during a beautiful time in the summer. But I guess that's when all the other big tennis tournaments and matches are and maybe this is good in sport.
Sem Verbeek: December is usually the time where most people are together, so we can get a good tournament going.
David Gardner: Well, delightful that you can be in your home city and compete for a national championship.
Sem Verbeek: I hope to stay home and bring it home as we say.
David Gardner: Love it.
Sem Verbeek: But for the holiday, I'm actually going to Riga in Latvia. My girlfriend is from there. I'm excited to let her be the tour guide and show me all around.
David Gardner: Wonderful. Now, my schoolboy memorizing of capitals, am I right that Riga is the capital of Latvia?
Sem Verbeek: Yeah.
David Gardner: Excellent. That's about all I know.
Sem Verbeek: Well, I will let you know how it was because it will be my first time as well.
David Gardner: Wonderful. I presume you're visiting with her family. That always seems like an important moment in our lives.
Sem Verbeek: I'm very much looking forward to it.
David Gardner: Well, we trust that will go well. So Sem, let me ask you, now, reflecting back. It was not so long ago. It was October 12. Here we are about two months later, but any reflections back now on that podcast we did together?
Sem Verbeek: Well, first of all, I must say, having the ability to talk a lot but not say a lot. I really enjoyed listening back to it, and hopefully, everybody listening did as well. But this year has been such an incredible year, both personally and financially for a lot of people. It's really made me reflect back on the similarities between sports and investing. Like you said in your episode with Frank Reich, and now with mine, there's so much you can learn from both sports and investing and apply vice versa.
The biggest lesson that I've learnt, both in my tennis this year and also going through the investing process, is that growth and progress is definitely not linear. There is going to be ups and downs, and there's going to be hard lessons to be learned. I've noticed for myself, sometimes I could feel like I was playing great-level tennis, but then the results wouldn't come. Then suddenly out of nowhere, you have some great results. Don't pay too much attention to all the predictions and opinions around you. Just know what you want to focus on and keep going in that direction and things should work out for the better.
David Gardner: Wonderful, Sem. Thank you so much for somebody who's learned that in his own professional sports life. It does feel, obviously, so apropos for all of us as investors listening in and thinking about the year that has been, and beginning to anticipate the year that will be. And that's where I want to go to close with you, Sem: What's a wish, an interesting thought, or a prediction that you have for the year 2023?
Sem Verbeek: I'm hoping I can speak for a lot of people here. I wish for a little bit more stability in 2023. But now on a more personal note, I'm making a prediction that I'm going to read more books. I'm also wishing for people to read more and understand more about each other and our history so we can move forward in a great way. I think that the world will be a better place filled with more knowledge then. The more we can help each other out, the better it is.
David Gardner: Thank you very much for that, Sem. That naturally asks me to ask the question back: Typically in your reading, what areas or categories outside of the obvious -- in this case, I would say tennis and or personal finance -- outside of those two obvious categories, what do you typically love to read?
Sem Verbeek: It depends on what mood I'm in, which is really fun. I like to have the personal development books and the books about business like you said because it's such a new area for me, so I love learning about it. But if you just want to relax on the couch -- if I'm together with my girlfriend in front of the fireplace and just want to relax, some fiction books or some light history. I think knowing where we all come from and how we spent the last few centuries is a fun way to learn about ourselves. Like I said in the previous episode, I have a curious mind. I think hopefully that will remain for the rest of my life. But something light usually during the evening. Then during the day, if I have a little bit more energy, it's more about learning.
David Gardner: Well, that's wonderful. Sem, I hope you'll get a chance to listen back to this podcast of which you are one component, but there are a number. We've already heard a few and I think we're going to hear a few more recommendations for ways to spend our time reading and or learning. Intellectual curiosity, I think, is the fire that drives success in most of the successful people in life. I obviously recognize it in you, so I love your prediction. I also will agree with you that I think you will read more books because making that pronouncement about ourselves in advance usually causes us to be more accountable and more likely to succeed to that thing. That is a prediction that we all can make along with you. Thank you, Sem, for the podcasts we did together, for being a torchbearer for what we stand for at the Motley Fool. We all wish you the very best of success, both in the national championship this month, but even more in reading more books in the year ahead. Fool on, my friend.
Sem Verbeek: Thank you. Fool on.
David Gardner: Bestie number 6. The sixth Bestie goes to "What You Have Learned from David Gardner, Volume 3," originally published on May 11 of this year, the week of my birthday. Ostensibly, this is among my more self-indulgent podcasts I do each year, and I do tend to do this one every year, because who openly asks people for presents on their birthday? And yet that's exactly what I do every year -- the week of my birthday, on this podcast, I ask you as your gift to me to tell what you've learned from me. And each year enough of you do that it ends up creating, I think, a wonderful podcast, a real asset for this podcast, in fact, because you inevitably end up summarizing all the key points, all my most important or Foolish takeaways from the many thoughts, stories, insights -- I would also say inspirations -- that emerge from this particular podcast each year.
For a medium that is here today, gone tomorrow -- podcasts, they're like other broadcast media, TV for instance -- where a given listener might be new or old, but just turns it on, shows up, listens one week, might be their first time ever listening. There's no way for me to ensure that you have real context for what you're hearing. If you're just showing up, there's no way to teach you or anyone ahead of time, to establish foundational building blocks for your knowledge in your learning for us to ensure that you're starting here at an appropriate point. No. It's just whatever happens to be on the podcast that week. Might be a Market Cap Game Show or an author interview or me resummarizing the six habits of a Rule Breaker investor or my 25-point system for risk ratings. You don't know what you'll walk into when you start listening to a podcast on any given week when it's been around for years.
Which is why "What You Have Learned From David Gardner" is so helpful as a key building block, a helpful starting point, year in and year out, for new listeners. So from many lessons included in this year's version, a get-started style of podcast, I'm just going to pull a couple as examples right now. The first is to make sure you're seeking the right feedback. So "Vim" wrote in to that episode about how he'd just gotten started investing in December 2020. What he'd received was basically unrelenting negative feedback for the first year as an investor. But as we talked it out on the podcast, that's only if you're viewing feedback as immediate. Now, it's very understandable for much feedback in this world to be immediate. If you hold your hand over the fire, it's going to hurt right away. If you touch the pedal, especially of your electric car, it should instantly push forward.
A lot of us are used to instant feedback, but as investors playing, by definition, over the long term, we have to dial our feedback out toward an appropriate amount of time. So if you're a committed investor, you should probably dial out your feedback and learning cycle from not one day or one year, I would say at least five, maybe five years. Let's see what we can learn from any investment in five years. And also, I say to Vim and to you listening to me right now, there will always be, in retrospect, good and bad times to have invested in the market.
So December 2020 may well have represented a near-term peak that means new money will always have historically underperformed from that point, but that's why it's so important -- A.B.I. -- to Always Be Investing. Vim gets it. I think most of my listeners will get that, but especially for newer investors and listeners: Always Be Investing. If you save and invest every two weeks, you will hit all of the best times ever to have invested in market history over the course of your lifetime. And also all the worst times too. It wasn't about the lucky timing of which one of those you invested in. It's that you invested all the way through in all of them. And that is the surest way to riches.
That was one thing you learned for me and a second quickly, I'll add in, comes to mind, and that's a theme that came through in many notes. But I'll just quote briefly and memorably from one submitted by longtime fellow Fool Vince Greenery, who put it this way and I quote "So many lessons from you, David, the most important being to be on, to bet on, to work on, and to invest on the optimistic side and make those dreams become reality for you and others as you make the world smarter, happier, and richer." Vince, that is exactly my wish for you and for everybody hearing me right now. While it's very hard to feel as if we've made much progress in the right direction the last 15 months as investors, I know for you and for many listening, that has been though, overall, your experience of investing, Foolish investing works, Rule Breaker Investing works. Because we need to see past a bad year or two.
I also love how you talk about making one's dreams become reality for others. Bestie number 6 goes to a highlight podcast for me every year. It is indeed appropriate for me to express gratitude for the gifts you send me, the mailbag notes, stories, insights, challenges. Every mailbag is a gift episode, so thank you. And I hope one other thing you will know -- probably didn't learn from David Gardner -- and that is the great benefit of being grateful.
The seventh Bestie, lucky seven, goes to "Authors in August: River of the Gods with Candice Millard." That was originally published on Aug. 24 of 2022. Now, Authors in August has become an annual tradition on this podcast and indeed, this was Candice's return visit to Rule Breaker Investing. I simply invite her each time she has a new book, and if she writes a new book every five years or so, that tends to be the rhythm of her appearances on this podcast. Candice, a delight to have you rejoin me to reflect a little bit back on the year that has been.
Candice Millard: It's a delight to be here. Every time you ask, I simply say yes because I really enjoy talking with you.
David Gardner: Thank you and me too. One thing I want to make sure is that anybody who's not already read River of the Gods knows why it is such a fantastic read, and I'm going to give credit here to Al Woodworth. Candice, do you know Al Woodworth?
Candice Millard: I do not. I feel like I should.
David Gardner: Well, you will now because he's the Amazon editor who penned this one-paragraph summary of your book. I would have rambled on for probably three paragraphs, but I like this succinct summary of River of the Gods. Again, for those who have not yet read it, you should know it's "a thrilling narrative nonfiction, full of adventure, ambushes, false starts and the pursuit of conquest. Richard Burton was a consummate explorer with a pension for languages (he spoke more than 25), sex, and glory (one of his greatest expeditions was a trip to discover the headwaters of the Nile in 1857). Candice Millard, the best-selling author of The River of Doubt and Destiny of the Republic recounts Burton's life and epic journey that not only involved harrowing physical feats, but stiff competition and epic clashes with his fellow explorer John Hanning Speke, and also with the man who's been left out of the history books, African guide Sidi Mubarak Bombay. Using diary entries and letters, Millard's story drops you in the middle of the jungle and exposes a world of conquering and colonial exploits. A fascinating portrait of the characters and the era in which they roamed that is an adventure to read."
Candice, do you approve of Al Woodworth's work?
Candice Millard: Absolutely. That's much better than I could do. That was terrific.
David Gardner: It was great. Anytime you're trying to characterize a book in a paragraph, it's sort of like a movie trailer -- taking one minute out of a two-hour something and trying to excite people around it. But it isn't hard, I don't think, for almost anybody to get excited about your book -- not just because you tend to favor subjects that are adventuresome and that are often underexposed that surprises -- a chapter in some well-known person's life that we wouldn't otherwise have known. But also the style with which you write, the research that you bring to bear. All of these things are reasons, I think, for your readers consistently to get excited from one five-year period to the next.
I remember Candice that when we talked, you were talking about how your next book -- because that's always my inevitable question. I'm sure everybody else who interviews you is always going to say, "What are you working on next?" -- I remember you saying for the first time, it would be a female subject. I don't think that you're talking about it publicly yet, and I'm quite sure you probably shouldn't. Is that the case?
Candice Millard: Well, there's always this push and pull with that kind of thing. I want to talk about it because I'm excited about it, and because when you talk to somebody about something you're working on, nine times out of 10, they'll say, "Did you know about this archive?" or "Did you know about this book?" Sometimes even "I actually know a descendant I can get you in touch with." It really helps.
On the other hand, when you're first starting out, you actually don't know that much about it. You know enough to know, OK, there's a good book here, but even to ask the right questions, and so I usually give myself a year in. As you say, it takes me five years, so I still have plenty of time to make those connections, but I'm just getting started with it.
David Gardner: Well, and I'm also imagining, in the same spirit of fellow explorer John Hanning Speke, and stiff competition if you were to put it out there that you've found a great story for this amazing subject, you might all of a sudden have "Speke" show up and try to scoop you. I talked earlier in this podcast with Dan Pink about chat AI and the auto-writing that can occur. You might be shocked by how quickly a mediocre but still thunder-stealing book could appear if you were to talk too publicly too early about your next subject.
Candice Millard: I think that, obviously, that's every writer's nightmare. I know Eric Larson never talks about things that he's working on, I think for that reason. Every once in a while, I think, we all open The New York Times Book Review and you see a shared review. Often it's like a biography that took somebody not five years but 10 or 20 years. Then it comes out at the same time as somebody else's Eleanor Roosevelt biography, and they have to share their review. My heart always breaks for those people, so that is definitely a concern.
David Gardner: Well, any time you appear on my podcast, my wife Margaret always insists on listening. We had so much fun listening to your appearance on Rule Breaker Investing in August. I had made a guess at the end of that podcast that was dead wrong about your next subject. But Margaret, who's smarter than I am started to think more about this. I'm just going to flash out two names and you can neither confirm nor deny. You can react or not at all. But I want to make another guess. This is powered by Margaret Gardner. Candice. Again. I don't want you to say if I'm right or wrong. Florence Nightingale or Clara Barton?
Candice Millard: I'm supposed to say nothing?
David Gardner: You actually can say whatever you want.
Candice Millard: I'm just going to tell you they're not right, but she is actually very interestingly close and in a very specific way. But one of those people is going to be in the book. But it's not the main character. Well done.
David Gardner: I knew Margaret would score higher than I did because she did all the way through college together. I'm used to having a lower GPA. I'm delighted to know that, Candice. Well, the question that I've been asking my guests first: What's one reflection you have now about that podcast we did together earlier this year?
Candice Millard: What I remember most about our conversation is -- and what I enjoyed most about it is -- that it veered away from just what I usually talk about with a book, which I always enjoy, obviously. When I spend so much time working on a book, I want to talk about it and that's fun. But we went off into sort of a different direction, I thought, to me, at least more interesting kind of broader subjects. I think that we talked about how, so often with history you see one of the lessons you learn is how often arrogance and ignorance go together, hand in hand.
You can see again and again and again throughout history the damage that they do and the danger that they pose. We talked about how you can try to protect from that, try to prevent that if it's possible. I think the only way that that's possible, from my limited experience with history, is just doing that, respecting history and try to understand history and to remember it and to keep a very honest, clear, steady eye on our history, and try to use that to correct our course when we need to. That's kind of what I remember from our conversation, and what I really enjoyed.
David Gardner: That was great. You talked some about your craft. I'm always interested in how creatives create. By the way, I don't think of creatives as its own specialized class. I think we're all creating all the time, but I always love people who are really good at creating different forms of art and expression. I love hearing how they do what they do. You shared some there, too, but I really appreciate you double-underlining one of the great benefits of history, which is seeing how some famous people can just get headstrong, boldly audacious, too confident, and often it is -- ironically, perhaps -- enabled by their own ignorance.
And that relationship, you are so good to remind us of that key lesson from that podcast. Speaking of writers' craft and the habits that we get into, I have to ask you -- since I asked the same thing of Dan Pink earlier on this week's podcast -- Candice, is there something around your desk, is there some memento or knickknack? Dan, in his case, had a Charles Darwin doll that he held up briefly in front of our camera together. But surely you have some interesting knickknack around your desk that's there with you every day as you work.
Candice Millard: I actually have many of those things. I love picking those things up as I'm doing research. The one I'm going to talk to you about is a flagstone that I have from the low stone wall at Neston Park, the estate where John Hanning Speke was hunting, and he was trying to climb over this stone wall, and he shot himself, and he died soon after. When I was doing my research, I went to Neston Park, and it's still owned by the family, by Speke's family. And I think it was a great-great-grandson of Speke's cousin who was hunting with him that day who took me on this tour and he took me to this wall and he gave me a piece of the wall.
David Gardner: Isn't that awesome? I'm not going to say in the same way that my wife outscored me in GPA, I'm not going to say that you outscored Dan. But I would say a much more meaningful knickknack and answer and his Charles Darwin stuffed doll. But I'm not saying that.
Candice Millard: The Darwin doll is very cool. I also have a Theodore Roosevelt.
David Gardner: To close, Candice: What's a wish, an interesting thought, or a prediction that you have for the year ahead?
Candice Millard: My wish -- because I'm an optimist, I will say it's also a prediction, and it's going to sound very cliche, but I think it's really, really true. My wish is that we would all treat each other the way we want to be treated. Because I had this conversation recently with an Uber driver in Pittsburgh. I don't even know how it started, but we started talking about the Golden Rule and how if everybody actually followed it, it would transform the world. You want to be treated with respect, then treat other people with respect. You want to be able to trust people, then be trustworthy. It's just that simple. But so many things in life, like eating your fruit and vegetables or exercising, people know the right thing to do but don't do it. Again, I'm an optimist and I believe that we'll all be following the Golden Rule more in 2023.
David Gardner: Thank you very much, Candice. And coming from you as someone who exudes kindness, at least I've spent a little bit of time in your actual physical presence -- these days our auras are more projected over Zoom or different tools like that. But anyway, I look forward to that future and that year, and I do believe that there are lots of positive reasons and people and factors in the world today to expect that we will see more of that going forward than we have in the recent past. Candice Millard, it's a delight to join with you again. Thank you so much for being part of Besties 2022.
Candice Millard: Thanks so much for having me. It was so much fun as always.
David Gardner: On to Bestie Number 8. Bestie Number 8 goes to "Company Culture Tips, Volume 10, Greatest Hits." How could I not recognize and award one of my favorite summary podcasts of all time on this podcast? Not just for this year, but to think that Kara Chambers and Lee Burbage have come on this podcast 10 separate times now over seven years to share out cultural tips for your workplace. Ones we've tried out in our workplace, ones through our reading that we've decided not to do in our workplace -- whatever we're learning, for good or for bad. Kara and Lee now for 10 separate times over the years have shared it out, and I think created a lot of value for listeners because if we're working, whether we own that company or not, whether it's a company or a university, a not-for-profit organization, we're all in different professional workplaces and the culture that we are creating -- especially as leaders for those who come to work with us and for us every day -- is so important. Kara Chambers, I'm delighted to have you back on Rule Breaker Investing. How are you doing?
Kara Chambers: Great. Thanks for having me back.
David Gardner: Thank you, Kara. You were on this podcast at least two times this year because we did do "Company Culture Tips, Volume 9" a little bit earlier in the year, and that was, of course, a delight. But to bring it all together with the 10 best tips of all time from our 10-episode series, that definitely edged out "Company Culture Tips, Volume 9," by the way, which was called "Progress and Growth," which was from June of this year. But it had to be our greatest hits. Kara, reflecting back down on that podcast we did together, what comes to mind?
Kara Chambers: That we really enjoyed it. I think you asked what's one reflection that we have about the podcast now. To me, there's power in looking back over the long term, and I really love that you've given us this kind of demarcation over the past couple of years to keep looking back. We walked out of that really grateful and happy and proud of our work, and just glad to have the opportunity to really look at it holistically, because you don't get a chance to do that. Anybody in a job is mired in the day to day. So you don't get a moment in your day to look across a long span of your career on what you've worked on, what's worked and what hasn't. To me, I feel like the reflection was, there's power in taking a look at the long view, is what we enjoyed the most about that.
David Gardner: Thank you, Kara. Lee -- who is moving his house this week, so couldn't join us, I'm sure Lee says hello to all of his fans in Rule Breaker Investing listeners, but he's moving. But anyway, Kara, to think back, one thing I want to say specifically to you since you're with me this week is, you are one of my "cool hunters" in this world. You are somebody -- there's always "an app for that" -- you've shown many of us over the years, but you're on the hunt for good reads, good apps, what is going to help improve our lives. You gave me two gifts earlier this year that I want to thank you for.
The first was, I think you were reacting to a podcast where I talked about how much I love e-books and how many highlights I've put into them over the years. You emailed me and you said, "David, have you ever used Readwise?" I had heard of it, but I didn't exactly know what you meant when you Slacked me or emailed me that, Kara. But thank you very much because this app, which basically allows me as an Amazon Kindle, although Apple books, etc., I can upload all of my highlights into the cloud, and Readwise, using some machine learning and getting to know me more over time, starts firing them back at me on a daily basis, highlights of books I'd forgotten I read eight years ago or loved two years ago, but I forgot that line. It's regularly bringing that back and helping me build a new knowledge library. Somewhat tagged, somewhat curated, but you are building my second brain with that wonderful suggestion of Readwise. Kara, my dear cool hunter. By the way, raise your hand. Our podcast listeners can't see this. This is visual. Raise your hand, Kara, if you have another new suggestion for me and us.
Kara Chambers: Sure.
David Gardner: I'm very happy to say Kara is raising her hand and we'll get to that in a sec. Now I'm excited, but I also want to thank you for gift number 2, and I just alluded to it because you also said "David, you should read the book Building a Second Brain. I really loved that book. It's by Tiago Forte. It came out in June of this year. It's all about, for me Kara, linking together all of my different disparate digital libraries, productivity, getting things done to do organizers, all of my digital notes, some of them splayed out in different places, and centralizing that, simplifying that, and really enhancing my productivity. I don't know exactly what you loved about that book, Kara, and I have to admit, I haven't finished it yet, but I already know greatness when I see it, and I'm already using it.
Kara Chambers: Oh, that's great. I really love that book, and Readwise as a tool that they use. We're surrounded by so much information. It's hard to keep track of the way your brain holds onto things. The concept is to create this library outside of your brain however you're organized because brains are intuitive and not organized in a very literal way. That really helped us just linking things together. That intuitive thinking of, "Oh, I remember I studied this," but I also highlighted this piece and that's coming together. Readwise sends it back to you and says, "Hey, you remember you read this book four years ago," and you're like, "Oh, that's a project I'm working on right now." It's building that library. Definitely really recommend that book. If you want it, I can add another tool I just learned about yesterday.
David Gardner: Again, you are not just my cool hunter, you're becoming a cool hunter for this podcast, so thank you. Just to summarize briefly, the Readwise app and the book Building a Second Brain, a devastating one-two punch of improve your memory distilled down to the things that really matter and bring them back at the right time so that you can make use of that amazing quote you'd forgotten, you loved three years ago, and it directly informs a project that you have next week. So appreciate that, Kara. Before I ask you my final question I've been asking all my guests, cool hunt for me a little bit: What's the next big thing in my learning?
Kara Chambers: AI is really driving it. And this, I believe it's on version 0.24. It's not coming to our Motley Fool systems anytime soon. I was just chatting with our tech people today. But they're using AI to help complete your notes for you. So you or I might use Evernote or Apple Notes to write our notes about things. But you just hit a backslash and just say "complete this note for me, summarize this book I just read," and then it will just write it for you. I just started using it yesterday, just testing it out like, "Oh, I have to write up a summary of this thing I'm doing and summarize this. Can you make the simpler? Can you just complete the sentence for me?" And the robots are just doing that for me. It's a little spooky.
David Gardner: What is the name of this app?
Kara Chambers: I apologize. Mem.ai, M-E-M.
David Gardner: Mem.ai. Earlier in this podcast, you would know this because you didn't get to hear it. But Dan Pink was talking about his prediction for 2023, that all of this chat AI, ChatGPT, etc, is real and it's changing everything. For listeners who have listened all the way through this episode, you are totally double-underlining something and causing us all to think smarter about 2023.
Kara Chambers: Absolutely. In fact, a colleague and I were just talking about Dan Pink's earliest book, A Whole New Mind, today, which is really about how the human brain still will have an advantage -- he wrote it in 2005 -- over robots in certain areas like empathy and drawing patterns where there are not. We were just chatting today about well, AI is getting in there. It's getting in there.
David Gardner: It is really interesting to watch and a great time to be alive. I'm fascinated by the possibilities. While every powerful technology can be used for good or for evil, in my experience, most of us are on the good side. The good guys always outnumber the bad guys and I think amazing things are coming from this. I watch with interest. Well, speaking of 2023 and maybe you've already answered the question, but I'll still reask Kara Chambers: What's a wish, an interesting thought, or a prediction that you have for the year ahead?
Kara Chambers: I think my wish, or I guess my wish is that we test and learn our way into where we need the robots and where we need the human touch. We touched on this a little bit in our podcast, of learning from our mistakes because we're going to go too far in one direction, one way or the other. My hope for 2023 is we do more of that experimentation and learn from them where we need. Your AI is not going to be your manager doing a one-on-one with you, I don't think this year -- but if we tried it and it didn't work, we would learn from that. But if AI summarizing a book that I just pulled up literally, as Dan Pink's example this morning, unrelated to this conversation, but like, "Hey, there was this Dan Pink book," and I typed in "summarize" and I got it.
David Gardner: Wow.
Kara Chambers: Super helpful.
David Gardner: Unbelievable.
Kara Chambers: The future is here, but we still keeping that humanity. Then the role we have on our team is to serve people. There's only so much you can do with robots so far. That's what we're going to figure out in 2023.
David Gardner: Thank you. Well, that test-and-learn mentality has been integral to so much of what we've done at The Fool, whether we're talking about how to invest your money or how to run our own business, or in our case, how to try to create, maintain, and grow a world-class corporate culture. Kara, thank you, and Lee in absentia, thank you both for all that you have done are doing and will do for Fools worldwide. I'm not just talking about our employees. Through this podcast, you're reaching a lot more people that you are educating, amusing and enriching. Kara Chambers, thank you for that Bestie we did together here in 2022.
Kara Chambers: Thank you for the encore.
David Gardner: All right, onto Bestie Number 9 and, investing Bestie Number 9 goes to "Financial Horror Stories, Volume 1, Memento Mori," that was first published on October 19 of this year, just a couple of months ago. I thought it would be awfully scary to have Robert Brokamp back on right now to reflect together with me on that podcast we did together. Bro, great to have you back.
Robert Brokamp: Thank you, David, and yes, many people find me very scary, so thank you very much.
David Gardner: Well, you can scare us a little bit if you like this week, staying in character. Robert, you and I first talked about doing this podcast earlier in the year. Do you remember that?
Robert Brokamp: I do, yes. I believe it was a listener who emailed you with really a sad story and that they knew someone who passed away at a relatively young age, I believe in their forties, maybe fifties, and really the difficult part was that made his 18-year-old son the executor of his estate and in charge of managing assets, which no one should be put in that position as a surprise, but especially an 18-year-old who just at that point became legally an adult. It was very complicated.
David Gardner: It was, and as I recall, his dad had been an entrepreneur, so he had a family business. All of a sudden, you have an 18-year-old who needs a process of mourning and all kinds of rethinking about life, I'm sure, and down time, and he's making all the financial calls around a business, etc.
At the time, well, of course, I heard you on the podcast answer to that in the mailbag, Bro, but you were saying at the end of it, "Hey, I've got some other scary stories about people who didn't do their wills," and so I said "Let's do a podcast," and we did again, it was Oct. 19.
It was just a week or two before Halloween, quite by intention. I had a lot of fun being scared by some of the stories that you told and obviously the reason I'm giving this a Bestie is because for anybody who's listening to this now, Robert, who did not get to hear "Financial Horror Stories, Volume 1." Boy, was that ever an eye-opener. I think an inspiration, which is often what death can be a theme of this week's podcast. An inspiration to live a better life, in this case, a better financial life. Bro, what reflections do you have now, a couple of months later on that podcast we did together?
Robert Brokamp: We talked a lot about seven stories about some famous people and some not-so-famous people about basic mistakes they made with their estate plans -- not doing any estate planning at all, like Prince, the musician. Some people doing an estate plan but it was not complete. Maybe they didn't address what would happen to like heirlooms and collectibles and things like that. Sometimes the plans were just not updated. Someone had an estate plan, but then they got divorced and didn't update the plan, so money went to the ex spouse, those types of things.
Really, the recollection I have of that is that it's very complicated and you need to get professional help. After that episode aired, I was speaking with a colleague of ours at The Motley Fool, and she told me her story about how her mother put her legal documents in a safety deposit box, gave the keys to her daughter and said when I pass on, here's the keys. Unfortunately, the mother passed on, our colleague drove up to New Jersey to open the safety deposit box. But the bank said, "I'm sorry, you're not on the list of approved people, so you can't access it." All her legal documents -- her will, everything -- is locked up. They needed to get legal help to somehow get access to that. Again, you need to get some expert, an attorney whose expertise is in estate planning, someone who knows your state's laws, to really take care of all of these details.
David Gardner: Someone who's been there and done that. Most of us, if a parent dies or a spouse, I mean, that's like a first, and it's not going to happen many times in our life, and we're really, for many reasons, not fully prepared. I think part of what you inspired me to do with that podcast, Robert, is to really think it through. But you're also pointing out beyond just thinking it through, acknowledging that I will die one day, and acknowledging the importance of some planning and putting in some precautions and steps so that those who come after have their lives eased, not hardened. But you're pointing out that it's not just enough to have good intent or to have done some of the right stuff if you're not doing it well enough. If you didn't realize you should specify ahead of time that my daughter can have the key, wow, that's even harder to hear in some ways because that was a person with her heart in the right place. I trust it will all end well, but extra complications simply because they didn't know how to do it quite right.
Robert Brokamp: A lot of it really comes down to just getting stuff done. I'm saying that phrase specifically because when I think back to my worst financial mistakes, they basically came down to procrastination, or putting things off, or not having the right to-do list. David, you and I have talked over the years about getting things done.
David Gardner: Big David Allen fans, both of us.
Robert Brokamp: Yes. I really believe that so much of it, especially as we head into the new year and people think about the resolutions like coming up with a system to take care of all your financial to-do items is crucial because everyone wants to have an estate plan. Everyone knows they should have an estate plan, and everyone knows what steps they have to take, but they just haven't gotten around to it. The majority of U.S. adults don't have a will even though they know they should. Highly recommend David Alan's book. I know you've, in the past interviewed James Clear, author of the book Atomic Habits. Another great one, definitely I think, a key to financial success is making sure that you get everything done.
David Gardner: Coming off my conversation with Kara, I've got to ask you, Robert: Have you yet heard of or even read I think the new getting things done, the amazing Building a Second Brain by Tiago Forte?
Robert Brokamp: I have not, but now I'm going to add it to my reading list.
David Gardner: I am delighted to know and I'm happy to share a like. It's that gift-giving time of year. I give you the gift of knowing about that book, and now one of your family members -- I know they all gather around to hear you on this podcast each time around the fire, the most romantic of circumstances -- they're hearing right now that dad or husband would love this book for Christmas. It is a very special book, I think, anyway.
Robert Brokamp: I want to make it clear that dad and husband are separate, just it's not scientific for the same person.
David Gardner: We are glad to know that. Thank you for sharing that. Well, let me close by asking you, Robert, very simply: What's a wish, an interesting thought, or a prediction that you have for the year 2023?
Robert Brokamp: OK, so I'm going to choose something boring but important. Here at The Motley Fool, we love to talk about stocks. There's something else though called bonds and I might be one of the few people here at The Motley Fool who regularly covers bonds.
David Gardner: This sounds like an interesting thought.
Robert Brokamp: Well, we'll see. This year has been horrible, horrible for bonds. The bond market is down more than 10%. Definitely the worst year for bonds in our lifetimes and by some measures one of the worst in U.S. history. Here's what my prediction is: Next year will be better for a couple of reasons. First of all, most bonds are trading at a discount, 5% to 10% below their par value. Bonds are contractually obligated to reach their par value. If you buy an investment-grade bond, a Treasury, you are most likely to get your money back. That's almost, not completely, but almost guaranteed growth, plus interest rates are higher. I think bonds are actually a bargain now.
David Gardner: You are right.
Robert Brokamp: Now, if you're young, if you are an aggressive investor, you don't need bonds. If you are more moderate or conservative, near or in retirement, and you're looking for some way to make a little bit of money outside of the stock market, I think bonds are relatively attractive these days.
David Gardner: Love it. You heard it here on Rule Breaker Investing from Robert Brokamp. Robert, whenever I invite that final question of my guests, "what's a wish, an interesting thought, or a prediction," it's really in order from least to most of the derring-do. I'm inviting on the part of my guests a wish -- I mean, any of us can have a wish. An interesting thought though, well, that's interesting -- but a prediction? I thought you were "interesting thoughting" us, but now I realize you came on this podcast to make a prediction and I appreciate that. I appreciate you, sir. Thank you, Robert, for teaming up with me to create not just a Bestie of 2022, but I do believe we concluded at the end of that podcast that it would be Volume 1, with future financial horror stories to come in 2023 and perhaps the years ahead. It's really helpful to hear scary things, especially when they didn't happen to us so we can avoid them in our own lives. Bro, happy holidays, friend.
Robert Brokamp: Thank you, David, you too.
David Gardner: All right and now onto the tenth Bestie. Bestie, Number 10. Now I have a long-standing tradition of often but not always, trying to save the best for last. I'm not saying that I did that this year on the Besties because I started at the top of the show saying these are not ordered, these are not ranked in any way, shape, or form. But for listeners who are still with us here, at the close of this year's Besties. Maybe you've been waiting for this one to come. Maybe this is the "how could they not award the award to this one because everyone was expecting it to win from the start." Joining me for the tenth Bestie, my friend and a longtime Fool. Chris Hill. Chris, welcome back to Rule Breaker Investing.
Chris Hill: David is always a pleasure to be here, especially so today. Now that I know that this is actually the best episode of the year. We are going to be about the very best episode. To the other guests who preceded me on this show. We're all winners here, but really, this is the best one.
David Gardner: I have some bad news for you, Chris, because although it's ultimately good news in part for you, whenever I complete this episode each year, I'm like, you know what? The Bestie was actually the best podcast that year and I feel that way again this week. Sadly, you did maybe the second-best podcast with me this year.
Chris Hill: Like I said, we're all winners.
David Gardner: All right, and the podcast, well, it was published on Feb. 16 of this year. The title: "The Year the Market Skyrocketed." Chris, the idea for this podcast was formed some years ago. I started thinking after you and I did "The Day the Market Crashed" a couple of years ago, I always thought it'd be fun to have a companion podcast. So "The Day the Market Crashed," for newer listeners, you should know that Chris joined me, and we simulated what it would sound like to be doing a Rule Breaker Investing podcast in the midst of a market crash. Chris, you and I joined together -- memorably surrounded by a cast of, I won't say thousands, but at least a few other wonderful Fools -- and we pretended the market had crashed, and we processed it. And I think we helped our listeners process that and that was fun to do. When the market actually did crash a few months later -- in no way were we trying to be predictive. Right, Chris? In no way were we trying to be predictive?
Chris Hill: In no way.
David Gardner: Thank you. Yet we oddly were. But the main thing is, we wanted our fellow listeners and fellow Fools to be able to think through their mindset faced by a surprising challenge. In this case, of course, the challenge of a big market drop. We've all felt that this year and had our mindsets challenged once again. But Chris, earlier this year, we asked a different question. What if the market didn't crash, but what if the market went crazy? What if one year, Chris Hill, the market skyrocketed? What year was that?
Chris Hill: 2052.
David Gardner: Conveniently located some 30 years hence.
Chris Hill: When you first came to me with the idea, I thought, "Well, I get the idea of the companion podcast." But I really did struggle initially with like, "Wait, how is this going to work and how are we going to pull this off?" The more you unpacked it for me, the more I thought, this is perfect.
David Gardner: Well, and then we ended up unpacking together, co-hosts yet again, with a talented cast joining in with us. Morgan Housel, Todd Etter, a number of other voices. But the timing was very intentional because most years, history shows Chris, the market goes?
Chris Hill: Up.
David Gardner: Up. Over any meaningful period of time, Chris, the market has gone and should go?
Chris Hill: Up.
David Gardner: Which is important to remember, especially because a lot of us aren't investing for one year, we're investing for the next 30 years. Looking backward from the future and reflecting on how the market has done in a year in which the market skyrockets. The year 2052. Again, we're not trying to be Chris, we're not trying to be predictive.
Chris Hill: Heaven forbid.
David Gardner: We're not trying to be predictive, but not only was it important to reflect on how the market will be doing over the next three decades and what that means for us today as investors, especially during a tough market year, it was delightful to reflect on the market skyrocketing, Chris. But the real challenge is thinking through what technology feels like and looks like in the year 2052.
Chris Hill: It was a fun challenge, and the guests that we had on that episode helped us with that. I think you set the tone perfectly early on by saying, "Hey, we're just going to live by the rules of improv. One of those rules is, hey, if someone says something, it becomes canon." As the episode went along, we had more and more things that were there, things that you and I had not planned necessarily that whether it was Aaron Bush or Matt Argersinger, Emily, people just jumped in and mentioned something and we just accepted it going by the rules of improv. It's like, making a reference to a company that is around today in 2022, but it's like "Yeah, but remember in the 2030s, they went under," and it's like, "Yup, I guess they did."
David Gardner: Indeed, because I had the pleasure of working with a talented improv comedian, Chris Hill, who's done that in his past. In a lot of ways, we all do that. We're all improv all the time when you think about it. But only some of us are really good at comedy. Chris, you are one, and we had some others that episode. But do you remember a couple of our tropes? The one that I definitely remember, especially it came back to me when I heard that some billionaires are competing with each other to help develop the soil and the prospects for Greenland. One of our key tropes is -- and I'm starting to think this is going to happen -- that Greenland in a world that is ever-warming becomes this amazing potential paradise or new world. Here in 2022, nobody thinks much about Greenland. It feels like a cold faraway place, but Chris, Greenland.
Chris Hill: Greenland, and the opportunity to invest in Greenland. I think Matt Argersinger spoke to that on the episode. Given his interest and expertise when it comes to real estate investing. I also think about how throughout the episode, we just referred vaguely to crypto and what happened to crypto. It's one of those things that we all know and understand, but we never really spell out what happened to crypto. And when you think about how 2022 has gone for crypto, I think we made the right choice there. I feel like we made the right choice.
David Gardner: We were not trying to be predictive. I'm saying that tongue in cheek, but we really are not. We're having fun, but so, of course we could digress further and reminisce, but the whole point of the Besties is to point listeners to some of the best podcasts of the year in case they didn't get to hear them. I definitely recommend "The Year the Market Skyrocketed," not just to listeners here, Chris, at the end of 2022, but I think it's going to work well in 2023, 2033, 2042, I'm probably not going to be alive. Might be alive. We might be alive in 2052. I hope to listen to it one day in that year. I think it's going to be really fun to watch how this one ages. Chris, what is one reflection you have now about that podcast we did together?
Chris Hill: One reflection I have is -- and in my memory, I haven't gone back to listen to it -- but in my memory, it was Todd Etter who makes the reference to self-driving cars in the year 2052, still being 10 to 20 years away. And that's something that you and I instantly latched onto because -- I don't want to speak for you -- but again, my memory is that you and I both believe that self-driving cars are much further away than, say, the self-driving car bulls would have us believe. Part of the reason I think that is because I remember doing interviews with people 10, 12 years ago, and them talking with great confidence about how self-driving cars were going to be here in the 2020s. They were really going to start to take on mass adoption in 2025. And by 2030, they're going to be everywhere. And here we are.
David Gardner: 2052.
Chris Hill: It's like no.
David Gardner: Still a decade away.
Chris Hill: There still 10 to 20 years away.
David Gardner: Again, we're not trying to be predictive. Chris, well, thank you so much for joining with me at the end of the year's best podcast, of which Chris, you were a part, but admittedly a small part of this one, but reflecting back on another of the year's best podcasts, three to go. But you were helping me reflect back on another of the year's best podcasts. Let me ask you at close what I've been asking each of my guest stars this week, and that is, Chris Hill: What is a wish, an interesting thought, or a prediction you have for the year ahead?
Chris Hill: My prediction for 2023...
David Gardner: Nice.
Chris Hill: ... is that we're going to see several high-profile, well-known CEOs of large, important American businesses announce that they are stepping down from their role as CEO -- and one of those people is going to be Warren Buffett. 2023 is the year that Warren Buffett finally passes the torch at Berkshire Hathaway.
David Gardner: Well, you heard it here first, and Chris, earlier I talked about how, well predictions, do kind of outdo interesting thoughts in wishes, so thank you for that. I won't say that you were particularly audacious with your prediction. But I do feel as if you added value to the podcast here at the very end. I was just googling it because I couldn't remember. It's Greg Abel who is Buffett's intended successor at Berkshire Hathaway. There's a company, there's a culture that has a lot of leadership and already succession plans in place, which is very impressive. In some ways had you not said Buffett, Chris, I was thinking, is this a Nostradamus prediction where you're just speaking generically? "I believe that a number of high-profile CEOs shall retire in the year." But you weren't here to Nostradamus us.
Chris Hill: I was not. That's why I wanted to give you at least one. I have a couple of others in mind, but I'm just going to stick with Buffett for now. In my defense, people have been making that prediction for a while. The difference is this time, I'm the one who's right.
David Gardner: I like it. Well, Chris Hill, thank you again. Thank you for "The Year the Market Skyrocketed," and all you mean to us here at the Motley Fool and to many listening. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year, my friend.
Chris Hill: And to you, David.
David Gardner: Well, thank you to every one of my special guests. Thank you for 50 stellar weeks for this podcast, for this year so far. Thank you, dear listeners. I had such fun and learned a lot, and I hope you did too. And that is the heart of the Besties 2022.