Wall Street moved slightly higher in its second trading week of 2023. My "three stocks to avoid," which I thought were going to lose to the market in the past week -- Corus Entertainment, Sinclair Broadcasting, and ExxonMobil -- plunged 18%, rose 5%, and climbed 2%, respectively, averaging out to a 3.7% decline.
The S&P 500 moved in the other direction, increasing 2.7% for the holiday-abridged week. It was close, but I was right. I have been correct in 42 of the past 65 weeks, or 65% of the time.
Let's turn our attention to the week ahead. I see Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY), Alcoa (AA 0.06%), and ExxonMobil (XOM 0.02%) as stocks you might want to consider steering clear of this week. Let's go over my near-term concerns with all three investments.
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1. Bed Bath & Beyond
You may wonder why shares of Bed Bath & Beyond nearly tripled last week, soaring 179% even as bankruptcy fears are growing. Welcome to the world of meme stocks, where fundamentals don't matter in a short-lived feeding frenzy.
The future of Bed Bath & Beyond is grim. This will be the fifth consecutive fiscal year of declining sales, and the third in a row with a double-digit drop. Analysts see another double-digit revenue slide for the new fiscal year that starts next month, and that's if Bed Bath & Beyond survives that long. Losses are mounting, and quarterly deficits have been clocking in larger than expected for more than the past year.
It's not good to be a credit risk with more than $3.6 billion in debt. Anything can happen, but it's hard to imagine a positive scenario for the rapidly fading retail concept.
2. Alcoa
Aluminum prices have fallen sharply since peaking 10 months ago, foiling plans of commodity bulls. Aluminum, alumina, and bauxite producer Alcoa reports its fourth-quarter results on Wednesday afternoon, and momentum hasn't been kind heading into the critical report.
Alcoa posted a 22% year-over-year revenue decline for its previous quarter. It also surprised investors with a quarterly deficit, even after backing out $652 million in restructuring charges relation to pension actions. Alcoa would also lower some of its full-year shipment projections.
Analysts see more red ink for this week's report on a 20% revenue slide. Wall Street pros think the weakness will continue. The same analysts who were modeling a profit of $5.21 a share for 2023 are now down to $3.16 a share on a 9% top-line slide.
In the 1970s, Alcoa had a TV commercial jingle, arguing that the Pittsburgh-based company wouldn't wait for tomorrow given all the advancements it was working on. With near-term prospects dim, investors can probably wait for tomorrow.
3. ExxonMobil
I won't go out on a long limb for the third pick. I'll stick with ExxonMobil, the oil and gas giant that's up a whopping 92% since the start of last year on a dividend-adjusted basis. Shares even inched higher this week, despite a stock-price war that's breaking out with the country's leading electric-vehicle maker. Cars that don't need to refuel at ExxonMobil are going to surge in popularity this year, with lower prices and additional tax credits.
Wall Street's scaling back on its expectations. It now sees a 21% decline in earnings per share in 2023 on a 7% top-line slide. This company was a winner last year, but with gas prices easing and the EV market gaining share, it's not likely to repeat as a market leader this year.
It's going to be a bumpy road for some of these investments. If you're looking for safe stocks, you aren't likely to find them in Bed Bath & Beyond, Alcoa, and ExxonMobil this week.
