Tesla's (TSLA 12.06%) fourth-quarter earnings report showed that the electric-car maker wrapped up 2022 with impressive momentum. Fourth-quarter revenue grew 33% and net income for the same period increased 59%.
The period marked Tesla's "highest-ever quarterly revenue, operating income and net income in our history," management said in the company's fourth-quarter update. The automaker said it expects strong growth to persist in 2023, with management guiding for full-year vehicle production to increase about 31% year over year.
But the two most important takeaways during the call surrounded commentary about the impact of recent price cuts on demand and the timeline for a new product launch. These two things represent two major catalysts for the electric-vehicle (EV) company.
1. Cybertruck production should start this year
Tesla confirmed in its earnings report on Wednesday that its long-awaited all-electric pickup truck is coming soon. "Cybertruck remains on track to begin production later this year at Gigafactory Texas," the company said.
It would be difficult to overstate the implications of a product launch like this on Tesla's business. Historically, new vehicle launches have played significant roles in the company's sales growth. Cybertruck will likely be no exception.
What's unique about this product launch is that it could substantially increase sales volume and boost the automaker's average selling price. Two of the latest Tesla vehicle launches, the Model 3 and Y, were substantially cheaper than predecessors Model S and X, bringing down the company's average selling price. Similarly, the Model S and X were much lower priced than its original vehicle, the Roadster.
The Cybertruck, on the other hand, should help Tesla's average selling price. With pickup trucks being a major profit center for competitors like Ford and General Motors thanks to high average selling prices, the EV maker would likely benefit from a similar trend.
But how many trucks, exactly, could Tesla produce? At one point, CEO Elon Musk had said he expected to build between 250,000 to 300,000 Cybertrucks annually.
The midpoint of this figure equals 20% of the units the company produced in 2022. Though given Tesla's improved volumes since he made this comment, actual production (after the vehicle's production ramps up over a few years) for the Cybertruck could be even higher.
Nevertheless, if the Cybertruck has a higher average selling price than the Model 3 and Y, which account for the bulk of the company's sales, the new truck could have an even greater impact on revenue.
2. Price cuts are working
But the company may not necessarily need its upcoming Cybertruck to see strong growth in 2023. In its earnings call on Wednesday, Tesla said that recent steep price cuts for its vehicles led to a surge in demand.
Specifically, Tesla said that orders in January were coming in at roughly double the company's current production rate. Indeed, demand has been so robust that Musk said during the earnings call that the company is (at least internally) aiming for production as high as 2 million units in a best-case scenario.
To be fair, the CEO is likely expecting the Cybertruck to account for some of these units. But Tesla did say in the earnings call that high-volume production of the new truck wouldn't occur until 2024; so Cybertruck deliveries this year would likely be very low as a percentage of total sales. Longer term, however, it will likely represent a meaningful portion of sales. So price cuts and the upcoming Cybertruck launch are good reasons to expect more strong growth from Tesla in 2023, 2024, and beyond.
