Wall Street bounced back in the 11th trading week of 2023. I thought my "three stocks to avoid" -- BuzzFeed, Coinbase, and Lennar -- were going to lose to the market in the past week. They declined 12%, soared 40%, and rose 6%, respectively. The final result was an average gain of 11.3% for the week.
The S&P 500 moved 1.4% higher for the week. I was wrong, but I have still been right 48 of the past 74 weeks, or 65% of the time.
Let's turn our attention to the week ahead. I see Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI 1.24%), Coinbase (COIN -9.09%), and Movado (MOV 0.24%) as stocks you might want to consider steering clear of this week. Let's go over my near-term concerns with all three investments.
1. Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings
The joy of the treasure hunt is struggling to shine at Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings these days. The retail chain that specializes in deeply discounted closeouts and overstocks is finding that it too can be marked down and out of favor.
Ollie's reports fresh financial results on Wednesday morning, and it's easy to see why the market is concerned. The retailer disappointed investors in its previous quarter. Earnings fell short of analyst expectations, but that's not a surprise. Ollie's has missed Wall Street profit targets for three consecutive quarters.
Image source: Getty Images
It wasn't just another earnings miss by Ollie's. Net sales rose 9% in the fiscal third quarter, but that was largely the result of expansion. Comps rose a mere 1.9% for the period, also below where analysts were perched. Adding insult to injury, the company discounted its guidance for the fourth quarter and the entire fiscal year. Ollie's pointed out at the time that sales had started to soften in the final two weeks of the fiscal third quarter, making for bad momentum heading into the period it will be discussing later this week.
2. Coinbase
Crypto prices soared last week, and Coinbase went along for the ride. The stock's 40% pop was a single-handed bracket buster for last week's column. I'm not convinced that the trading exchange can keep the party going.
The rally in digital currencies may seem odd at first. The surge is being described as a flight to quality in light of the traditional banking crisis, but that seems like a stretch. The crypto market is having its first positive moment in a long time, but that doesn't mean it will last. The FDIC will bail out most accountholders at failed banks, but no one is supporting speculators that lost money on failed crypto platforms.
In fairness to Coinbase, it's the top dog with a decent balance sheet. It never dabbled in risky practices to deliver higher yields and lower commissions for its accounts. It should be the last crypto platform left standing, but this young year's bounce in digital currencies doesn't justify more than a doubling of Coinbase stock in 2023.
3. Movado
Another company reporting quarterly results this week is Movado. The watch maker will offer up its latest financial results on Thursday morning.
Unlike Ollie's, Movado heads into this week's update with momentum. It has consistently trounced profit targets over the past year. It's keeping income investors close with its healthy 4.2% dividend yield.
The problem is that Movado knows what time it is. Traditional watches -- even Movado's stylish creations -- aren't the future. This is a $600 billion market right now, but we live in a world of smartphones and smartwatches. With the economy looking dicey at this point, it will be hard to justify springing for a premium wrist-hugger that only tells time. Movado has navigated the challenging marketplace well, but it's hard to fathom this week's earnings call as bringing in a flurry of positive developments.
The stock market is always on the move. If you're looking for safe stocks, you aren't likely to find them in Ollie's, Coinbase, and Movado this week.
