Last year was a bad one for the markets as the S&P 500 crashed by 19%. Many growth stocks did even worse in 2022, including Coinbase Global (COIN -5.10%) and GoodRx (GDRX -0.14%), which each saw their share prices collapse by more than 85% over the course of the year. This year, however, both stocks have fared much better (at least so far) as they have been off to red-hot starts. But are their gains sustainable and are these two stocks good buys? Or are they destined to fall back down?
1. Coinbase Global
Coinbase runs a platform for buying and selling cryptocurrencies. Because of that, its stock performance tends to be closely related to the popularity of Bitcoin. Coinbase's losses over the past year have been steeper, but there's no denying that there's a close relationship between the price of both of these investments:
In light of the instability in the markets this year, especially the recent volatility in the financial sector, many investors have been turning to Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset. That can be a dangerous proposition given Bitcoin's volatility over the years, but that is undoubtedly helping Coinbase's popularity right now.
Based on its own merits, it would be difficult to justify investing in Coinbase right now. With losses totaling $2.6 billion over the trailing 12 months and negative operating cash flow of nearly $1.6 billion, the business has no shortage of risks attached to it, which would normally give investors plenty of reasons to stay away from the stock right now.
Shares of Coinbase are up a whopping 136% thus far in 2023. But given its poor financials and questionable outlook, this isn't a stock that I would expect can maintain these gains. As macroeconomic conditions improve, the valuations of Bitcoin and Coinbase could plummet once again. Coinbase is a speculative buy at this point and one that risk-averse investors should stay far away from.
2. GoodRx Holdings
Healthcare company GoodRx isn't nearly as speculative a buy as Coinbase is. Its business may actually be well suited to a downturn as the company helps people find cheap prescriptions by using its discounts. And by paying for a membership, users can unlock more savings.
Last year, however, the company's business struggled as its growth rate fell sharply -- and that trend has continued into this year.
GDRX Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts
Sales began nosediving as the company alerted investors of an issue it had with a grocery chain not accepting its coupons. While the issue has since been resolved, it is still affecting the company.
In GoodRx's earnings release last month, it stated that for the first quarter of 2023, it is projecting revenue of around $182 million, which it says "includes a $35 million to $45 million estimated impact to prescription transactions revenue related to the grocer issue." That would be a shortfall from last year, when the company's revenue topped $203 million. It was toward the end of the first quarter of 2022 that the company said the grocer issue emerged.
The positive of last year's controversy is that it means the company will be going up against softer comparables later this year. And its most recent quarterly results came in better than expected.
In GoodRx's case, the stock could be more likely to rally, but that's assuming it can build off these results and get back to generating positive revenue growth. There's still some risk here, but if you're willing to take it on, this could be a stock with lots of upside as it is still trading down nearly 70% from its 52-week high even after a 41% price gain so far in 2023.
