Shopify (SHOP 0.23%) has been on a roller-coaster ride on the stock market so far in 2023, as shares of the e-commerce platform provider have pulled back since the release of its fourth-quarter 2022 results on Feb. 15. There were concerns that the company's growth is set to slow down this year.
Shares of the company sank big time after the earnings report, which wasn't surprising, as Shopify needs to exceed Wall Street's growth expectations to justify its rich valuation. After all, Shopify is trading at 10.3 times sales, well above the S&P 500's price-to-sales ratio of 2.3. However, the stock is showing some signs of life this month and helped investors recoup some of the losses it recorded in February.
Shopify's stock has jumped 14% in March so far, which doesn't seem surprising, as savvy investors may have seen an opportunity in its drop and bought more shares. Also, the stock is up 50% over the past six months.
Does this mean investors who couldn't capitalize on Shopify stock's huge decline in 2022 have lost a buying opportunity? Let's find out.
Shopify is available at a relatively attractive valuation
Though Shopify is trading at a rich sales multiple, its current valuation is well below the company's five-year average sales multiple of 30. What's more, Shopify's current price-to-sales multiple is way below where it was a year ago.
SHOP PS Ratio data by YCharts
At the same time, though the company's guidance wasn't as strong as analysts' expectations, it wasn't disappointing either, given the headwinds that may arise from high inflation levels and tight consumer spending, owing to multiple macroeconomic reasons. Shopify has guided for top-line growth "in the high-teen percentages on a year-over-year basis" in the first quarter of 2023, which is not that far off from the Street consensus of 20% growth.
The company's revenue increased by 21% in 2022 to $5.6 billion, driven by the robust adoption of its merchant solutions. Shopify has historically witnessed a sequential drop in its first-quarter revenue of a calendar year following strong holiday sales in the fourth quarter of the prior year. Despite that, the forecast for high-teens revenue growth over the prior year isn't all that bad, as it is close to the revenue growth that the company reported last year.
Shopify is expected to finish 2023 with a 19% jump in revenue to $6.65 billion. While that would represent a small slowdown over 2022, the company's growth is expected to accelerate from next year.
SHOP Revenue Estimates for Current Fiscal Year data by YCharts
Investors should also consider that Shopify's guidance assumes that "inflation remains elevated, pushing consumers to discounted and nondiscretionary purchases," as CFO Jeff Hoffmeister remarked on the February earnings conference call. However, signs of cooling inflation and robust consumer spending in the U.S. could help Shopify deliver better-than-expected results in the near term. Also, a look at the prospects of the market in which Shopify operates will tell us why it is built for long-term growth.
Investors shouldn't miss the bigger picture
Shopify is at the beginning of a multiyear growth curve. In the U.S. alone, the company has cornered a 10% share of the e-commerce market, a number that can be expected to head higher as the adoption of Shopify's solutions by merchants increases.
The company's multiple shopping solutions, such as point-of-sales payments systems, online payments solutions, digital marketing initiatives, and tools to help merchants drive stronger sales and better returns on investments, should help it ride growing e-commerce penetration in the U.S. and worldwide. Not surprisingly, Shopify estimates that it is sitting on a massive total addressable market worth $160 billion, which means that the company hasn't captured even 4% of its end-market opportunity thus far based on its 2022 revenue.
As a result, it won't be surprising to see Shopify deliver the impressive growth that the market is expecting from it. That's why savvy investors looking for a growth stock can consider going long on Shopify, as it is trading at a relatively attractive even after its impressive rally in the past few months.
