Stock splits were all the rage in 2022 as some of America's largest companies sought to shrink their share prices after making substantial gains in the years prior. The move ensured their stock remained accessible to retail investors with small amounts of capital, as well as employees who wanted to participate in share purchase plans.
In August of last year, electric vehicle powerhouse Tesla (TSLA -5.59%) executed a 3-for-1 split that increased the number of shares on issue threefold and shrank its stock price from $891.30 to $297.10. The stock split alone isn't a reason to buy Tesla because it hasn't changed the value of the underlying company, but the company's fundamentals certainly might be.
Ark Investment Management, led by technology investor Cathie Wood, believes Tesla stock could soar to $1,533.33 by 2026 on the back of growing demand for electric vehicles, plus the rise of fully autonomous robotaxis. The latter is a key area of focus for CEO Elon Musk, too.
Given Tesla stock trades around $190 as of this writing, that presents an opportunity for investors to earn a substantial return -- particularly retail investors, thanks to last year's stock split.
Image source: Tesla.
Tesla and Ark bet big on robotaxis
Tesla is, first and foremost, the world's largest electric vehicle manufacturer. It delivered 1.3 million cars worldwide in 2022, and it holds a 65% market share in the U.S. alone. While the competition is growing, Tesla might just be getting warmed up because Musk believes the company can produce 20 million vehicles per year by 2030.
But the EV specialist is also a leading developer of autonomous self-driving software, which is not only a financial opportunity in and of itself, but it paves the way for Tesla's ambitious plan to build a fleet of robotaxis (slated for release in 2024). On the company's recent fourth-quarter 2022 earnings call, Musk spoke generally about the potential for fully autonomous cars to create more value than anything in history.
That's supported by Ark Invest's lofty predictions for the autonomous ride-hailing industry. The firm believes that any Tesla vehicle on the road with full self-driving capabilities will have the potential to generate $20,000 in revenue per year by transporting people without human assistance. Overall, Ark Invest is betting autonomous ride-hailing will create $14 trillion in value as soon as 2027, with $4 trillion in annual revenue across the industry.
Remarkably, Ark Invest says using autonomous taxis could cost as little as $0.25 per mile, which means they have the potential to replace 60% of short-haul flights based on affordability. That's a big opportunity for Tesla, which has approximately 2.7 million cars on the road collecting data to feed its self-driving models right now -- 10 times more than its closest competitor.
Ark Invest is extremely bullish on Tesla stock
Ark Invest currently runs eight exchange-traded funds (ETFs) focused on making long-term bets on different segments of the technology sector. Three of those ETFs own a combined $975 million worth of Tesla stock, and it's the firm's single largest holding by value -- value that could soar if its bold forecast becomes reality.
Ark Invest put forward a 2026 price target of $1,533.33 for Tesla stock, which would represent a substantial 705% upside from where it trades today. It also means Tesla would be worth a whopping $5.3 trillion!
The forecast assumes the EV maker is generating $843 billion in revenue that year, the majority of which would be coming from electric vehicle sales, and 34% from its robotaxi business. But considering Wall Street analysts expect just $103 billion in revenue in 2023, it means the company will have to more than double its revenue in each of 2024, 2025, and 2026.
That's ambitious, if not unlikely. Tesla's own forecasts point to 50% annual growth in vehicle sales, suggesting revenue should increase at roughly the same rate. That's half the pace of Ark's estimate, which means its $1,533.33 price target may not be achievable by 2026.
But that's not to say it isn't achievable eventually. In fact, if Tesla does produce 20 million cars per year by 2030 (as Musk predicts), combined with revenue from self-driving software and robotaxis, then there's every chance Tesla stock can soar to $1,533.33 by the end of this decade.
