Investors are nervous about banking stocks, and rightfully so. With the rapid failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in recent weeks, businesses that seemed to be sound and running smoothly have wiped out shareholders. This has led to an investor exodus from the banking sector, with regional bank stocks, based on the Invesco KBW Regional Banking exchange-traded fund, down roughly 20% this year.
But there's no need to put your money in risky bank stocks, especially if you are not a professional investor. Here are two resilient financials to buy for your portfolio instead.
American Express: Long track record and wealthy customers
Operating for 172 years, American Express (AXP +1.75%) is one of the oldest consumer lending businesses still operating today. Famous for its platinum, gold, and black credit cards, the credit card issuer is extremely popular among travelers and wealthy individuals, especially in the U.S.
This target demographic -- people with higher incomes and excess savings -- makes American Express much more resilient than other financial institutions during recessions and crises. Regardless of how well the economy is doing, rich people are generally going to have the cash to pay off their credit card loans. The numbers back this up. Before the pandemic, American Express loans had an average net write-off rate of just 2.3%, and only 1.5% of loans were 30 days past due. COVID-19 restrictions helped these numbers, as American Express members couldn't spend lavishly on travel and entertainment and built up even more savings. For example, even in the fourth quarter of 2022 only 1.1% of member loans were written off, and just 1% were 30 days past due.
Investors should expect write-off rates to return to higher pre-pandemic averages, which is what American Express management is prepping for as well. It currently has reserved 2.4% of its loan assets under its write-off capital reserves. Taking all this into consideration, this makes the $104 billion in customer loans on American Express's balance sheet robust and low risk at the moment.
This year American Express is projecting earnings per share (EPS) of $11 to $11.40, which gives it a forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of about 14.8 if hits the low end of this forecast. For a company that thinks it can increase its EPS at a mid-teens rate over the long term, American Express looks like a cheap stock at today's prices regardless of what happens in the macroeconomy in 2023.
NYSE: AXP
Key Data Points
Nelnet: Diversified and backed by the government
Unless you have student loans, you probably haven't heard of this sleepy financial company from Nebraska called Nelnet (NNI +2.08%). However, the long-tenured management team has one of the best track records of any financial company.
Nelnet has one of the most unique loan portfolios in the world. When the company was founded, it became an originator of student loans for college students, but specifically under a program that was backed by the U.S. government. Over the years it successfully built up this loan portfolio until 2011 when -- as a part of the Affordable Care Act -- the U.S. government banned the private issuance of federally backed student loans. Seeing as this was the vast majority of Nelnet's business at the time, the new law meant it had to diversify or die.
However, this wasn't the end of the world, at least not immediately. Student loans are long-lived assets, generating cash for lenders decades into the future. This has given Nelnet plenty of time to diversify its business with the cash generated from its loan portfolio. In fact, according to the company's latest annual report, the existing student loan portfolio will generate around $1.46 billion in cash for the company this decade, even though it hasn't originated a loan for years.
So what has Nelnet been diversifying into? Plenty of things. These include a fiber broadband business, solar energy financing, real estate, venture capital, and the opening of a bank it calls Nelnet Bank. Some of these ventures have gone better than others, but what investors should home in on is the company's consistent track record, with its book value per share growing at a 16.6% annual rate since 2004. Regardless of what the management team gets into next, they have shown they can reinvest cash for shareholders intelligently.
With all this diversification and a great track record of creating shareholder value, I think Nelnet is a resilient financial stock you can own for the long term.
