2 Reasons to Buy Aurora Cannabis and 1 Reason to Sell It

Aurora Cannabis (ACB 14.02%) is one of the few Canadian cannabis retailers that is still seeing revenue growth, despite price compression and illegal sales negatively impacting the industry. The company is still losing money, but it appears to be edging its way toward profitability.

Aurora's path to success includes branching out to international markets while focusing more on medical marijuana sales at home.

Here are two reasons to buy Aurora stock and one to sell it.

Reason to buy No. 1: Aurora is moving toward profitability

In the second quarter of 2023, Aurora credited reduced selling, administrative, and general expenses, as well as increased revenue, for 1.4 million Canadian dollars (roughly $1.03 million) in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA). That showed significant progress, as the company lost CA$7.4 million in adjusted EBITDA in the prior quarter and CA$7.1 million in adjusted EBITDA in the same period a year ago.

The growth in revenues was the biggest reason for positive adjusted EBITDA. Aurora reported revenue of CA$61.7 million in the quarter, up 25% sequentially and 2% year over year. The growth came across the company's various segments, as well as a full quarter of revenue from Bevo Farms, a plant propagation company that Aurora bought in August for $45 million, plus up to CA$12 million for hitting certain milestones over the next three years.

Bevo has the potential to be a great long-term value add for Aurora. The company, based in Langley, British Columbia, supplies vegetables and ornamental plants throughout North America. In the 12 months ending June 30, 2022, Bevo reported revenue of CA$39 million and adjusted EBITDA of CA$9 million.

There's another reason Aurora's revenue continues to grow: While other Canadian cannabis companies are fighting to gain market share in the country's adult-use sales, Aurora is instead focusing on growing medical marijuana sales.

In the second quarter, the company added to its No. 1 market share in Canadian medical marijuana with CA$39.5 million in revenue, up 25% over the prior quarter. 

This isn't by accident. Two years ago, CEO Miguel Martin told Business Insider that he saw better margins for his company in medical marijuana sales, saying:

The medical business in my mind is the most exciting and potentially profitable piece of the entire cannabis business. The fact that everyone is just so consumed by this idea that only rec cannabis matters, I think, is a fallacy.

Reason to buy No. 2: The company's international presence

Aurora is in 11 international markets. It holds the No. 1 market share in dry flower sales in Poland, with a population of 38 million, and the No. 2 share in Germany, whose population is 83 million. The company also has a strong presence in Australia, Great Britain, France, and The Netherlands.

All those markets are expected to grow, especially Germany, which is expected to move to adult-use cannabis sales soon, and that move could begin a domino effect in the rest of Europe. If that happens, Aurora already has the infrastructure in place to benefit.

Cannabis research company BDSA said that it expects international markets to see big growth this year and in the coming years, with Germany among the top five contributors to global sales through 2026.

Reason to sell No. 1: The company could be delisted from the Nasdaq

Aurora's shares are down more than 82% over the past year and over 23% so far in 2023. The company got word on March 24 that it is facing possible delisting from the Nasdaq because Aurora's shares closed at below $1 a share over 30 consecutive business days. 

The company has 180 days -- until Sept. 30 -- to regain compliance, which would require its shares going for $1 or more per share for 10 consecutive business days. If it doesn't, that would be seen as a disaster for the company because selling shares is one of the few ways cannabis companies use to raise cash. If it was dropped from the Nasdaq, it would likely still be listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange and over the counter in the U.S., but it would attract fewer investors.

To avoid being delisted, the company might consider a reverse stock-split to bump up the share price, which is something else that would turn off investors.

While Aurora is in a relatively decent cash position, with CA$258.7 million as of the second quarter of fiscal 2023, being delisted would make it more difficult to raise funds, and its cash in hand fell CA$179 million through the first six months of fiscal 2023.