Some of the stocks that performed the worst in 2022 have had the strongest rebounds. For example, DraftKings (DKNG -2.31%), MicroStrategy (MSTR -2.82%), and Tesla (TSLA -1.92%) are up 66%, 97%, and 59%, respectively, so far this year. That's after they all fell about 60% or more last year.
Despite the momentum, there are reasons I wouldn't buy any of them. Others may feel different. That's fine. As they say, it's what makes a market.
Here's why I can't see myself ever holding shares -- and why studying Warren Buffett, the Oracle of Omaha, leads me to believe he wouldn't either.
1. DraftKings
The online sports betting site came public via special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC, in late 2019. It began trading the following April, as sports were essentially shut down in the U.S. due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Revenue has boomed as 36 states have legalized betting on sports since 2018. But cash flow hasn't followed suit. In fact, it has remained deeply negative. It's even worse if you cont share-based compensation.
Adding it up, it's as if it costs the company $1.50 for every $1.00 in revenue. That's not a sustainable business model.
DKNG Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts
The problem lies in the industry itself. Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett has said the most important factor in choosing an investment is its "moat" -- also referred to as its competitive advantage. I don't think DraftKings has one.
By all accounts, the company is pulling all the right levers: It's focusing on expenses and investing to retain members through user experience. It's also trying to curb promotions and discounts. That should bring marketing expenses down as a percent of revenue. It's the right plan.
Unfortunately, the service is a commodity. It is virtually interchangeable with other online betting sites. Individuals may have their personal preference. But for gamblers, sports betting is all about odds. And odds are basically the same everywhere.
That leaves promotions and discounts -- levers that erode profitability -- as the primary differentiator. Owning a business where customers can leave easily and discounts are the best way for competitors to lure them is a gamble few companies ever win.
2. MicroStrategy
MicroStrategy was cofounded in 1989 by Michael Saylor. It was a poster child of the dot-com boom and bust, climbing from a $12 initial public offering (IPO) to more than $3,000 before falling 99.9%.
In March 2000, the company had to restate its financials after Forbes published a story questioning its reported revenues. Its auditor followed suit. The stock collapsed in response.
The company survived. And for decades, it muddled along as a business intelligence software platform helping companies use their data to make better decisions. But that changed in 2020.
Since early in the pandemic, the company has increased the number of shares by about 20% and taken on billions in debt. The reason for the increases is why I would never invest in MicroStrategy.
MSTR Shares Outstanding data by YCharts
In August 2020, it became the first publicly listed company to buy Bitcoin. It had accumulated 132,500 of the digital currency by the end of 2022. That comprised roughly 70% of the firm's enterprise value.
For me, it doesn't make sense to own a company that is betting on something that doesn't generate cash flow. That's the definition of speculation. And I try hard to avoid that.
Warren Buffett captured this idea in his 2011 letter to shareholders when describing gold. He said, "Owners are not inspired by what the asset itself can produce -- it will remain lifeless forever -- but rather by the belief that others will desire it even more avidly in the future."
Saylor's gamble might pay off. And MicroStrategy shareholders may experience incredible returns if Bitcoin climbs as high as some predict. For me, that's not a good enough reason to invest. If I wanted to gamble on Bitcoin, I would just buy it.
3. Tesla
As an investor, one of the first questions I ask myself is whether I trust management. It's definitely more art than science. After all, everyone has biases that can get in the way of objective decisions. For CEO Elon Musk, those biases are more pronounced.
Many think he is a genius and one of the greatest entrepreneurs of our time. Others' opinions are less flattering. Either way, I tend to avoid investing in companies with overly promotional leaders.
Musk has certainly made wildly optimistic claims through the years. And it is well documented that he has been predicting Tesla vehicles will be self-driving by "next year" since 2014. Add on the potential distraction of running not one but two other companies -- SpaceX and Twitter -- and it raises questions about just how much of his attention any of them are getting.
I have no strong feelings about whether Tesla will become the transportation juggernaut its fans believe it will. I also don't know if those who claim financial shenanigans will ever get to say, "I told you so." One thing I am sure of is that Elon Musk has made the Tesla doubters look silly so far. And he's gotten very rich doing it.
Charlie Munger -- Warren Buffett's longtime partner -- summed it up in comments he gave at the annual meeting of Daily Journal last month. He quipped, "My policy on Elon Musk is that he's a very talented man but also peculiar, so I don't buy him, and I don't sell him short." I couldn't have said it better myself.
