As the old adage goes, "Past performance does not guarantee future results." More to the point, there's no assurance that three of the first quarter's hottest technology stocks will be able to repeat the feat in the second quarter. Each ticker is near, at, or even beyond Wall Street's consensus target price (and it's not like analysts haven't had ample opportunity to raise their targets since these rallies began).

Here's a closer look at these three names and their current situations. If you own any or all of them, it might be smart to reassess your reasons for holding these stocks. If they're a true long-term holding, so be it. If they're more of a trade, though, the trade's likely run its course.

1. Roblox

Q1 gain: 58%
Current price: $46.58
Consensus price target: $39.40

The big gain dished out by metaverse outfit Roblox (RBLX 1.06%) shares since the end of 2022 makes enough sense on the surface. Last year was disastrous for the stock. The company went public at the height of 2021's metaverse mania, but as the COVID-19 pandemic eased and enthusiasm about the metaverse waned, so did investors' interest. The bear market certainly didn't help either. It's easy to look back and think the sellers overshot their target, though. The Q1 rally simply corrects that mistake.

But there are still more questions than answers for Roblox.

Chief among the questions are February's activity measures and their implications. By and large, they were solid. The number of daily active users grew 22% year over year, while the total number of hours spent playing within its virtual worlds improved 24%. The single-digit decline in the number of average sessions for daily users, however, could be a subtle early sign that its reach is peaking. Underscoring this idea is the fact that the same measure was essentially flat for January rather than up.  

Perhaps worse, this month's posting of these vital user metrics for March will be the company's last such report, obscuring a full view of the company's health at a time when Roblox should be demonstrating the importance of its role in the metaverse movement. 

Indeed, the decision could be interpreted as a deliberate move to obscure slowing growth stemming from weakening interest. NPD Group reports that sales of the virtual reality headsets needed to enter the metaverse actually fell 12% last year. Growing losses in spite of persistent revenue growth, and frequent misses of earnings estimates, are also becoming habits that ultimately work against the stock.

2. Tesla

Q1 gain: 68%
Current price: $191.64
Consensus price target: $205.54

For the record, shares of electric vehicle (EV) maker Tesla (TSLA 0.83%) aren't quite to their consensus target of $205.54 just yet. They're close, sitting a mere 7% below that mark after failing to make any forward progress since mid-February's high. That may not be enough upside potential to justify the downside risk of this stock at this time.

For years Elon Musk's Tesla was a company that could do no wrong, represented by a stock that rarely stayed down for long.

As Tesla reached a massive scale and viable competition crept into the EV space, however, the stock's reliable bullishness and the bullish narrative surrounding the company suffered. Case in point: Despite a 44% year-over-year increase to 440,808 manufactured vehicles during Q1 and delivering a record-breaking 422,875 EVs in the same quarter, shares fell following the news.

Why? Analysts were expecting deliveries of more than 430,000 battery-powered cars stemming from demand that was supposed to be spurred by price cuts. The modest inventory buildup further points to a possible slowdown in demand for Tesla's EVs.

These worries are arguably overblown. After all, the Tesla name is nearly synonymous with electric vehicles, accounting for the majority of EV sales after Musk mainstreamed the EV movement. That's apt to remain the case for the indefinite future, too. True long-term investors can confidently step into or stick with the stock here.

If you're only willing or able to hold Tesla shares as a near-term trade, there's above-average danger in doing so right now. This stock's increasingly being treated as a mature growth name rather than the must-have Wall Street darling it was during its earliest years of existence. This new dynamic is vexing investors, leaving shares vulnerable to volatility while the market gets a grip on this stock's new norm.

3. Spotify Technology

Q1 gain: 69%
Current price: $134.66
Consensus price target: $136.44

Shares of Sweden's Spotify Technology (SPOT 2.25%) are rallying for understandable reasons. The digital radio platform passed 500 million listeners last month, and by leveraging AI-powered music suggestions along with short-form video and podcasts, the company believes it can grow its customer headcount to 1 billion by 2030.

With the stock up nearly 70% just over the course of the past three months, though, the bulls have arguably gotten more than a little ahead of themselves.

Don't misunderstand. A billion paying customers isn't an outrageous outlook in light of everything the app does and will eventually offer. Some analysts also argue the service is underpriced in certain markets (including in the U.S.), leaving room for a price increase that won't prompt a wave of cancellations.

Guggenheim's Michael Morris is one of these analysts, upgrading SPOT stock to a buy last month to reflect "our estimate of subscription plan price increases, which we expect will take effect on a broad geographic basis in mid-2023." He adds that "the music business gained scale and we see Spotify leadership continuing to recognize incremental efficiency as a value-creating strength that the company can disproportionally benefit from."

Translation? Look for losses to turn into profits as time marches on.

The widening profit margins Morris believes are in the cards are a slow-moving train, reliant on business development initiatives that are still relatively foreign to Spotify in a market that includes stiff competition like Apple and Amazon. There's plenty of opportunity for stumbles and setbacks in the foreseeable future that could prompt a pullback. Conversely, there's not a lot of additional value left to pack into the stock's present price.