After years of soaring prices for graphics cards, driven by pandemic-era demand and a cryptocurrency bubble, affordability is making a comeback. Nvidia (NVDA 0.76%) will launch its $299 RTX 4060 in July, a discount to the $329 launch price of its last-gen RTX 3060, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 0.69%) has the $269 RX 7600 ready to go.

The problem for PC gamers looking for an upgrade is that these new cards are nothing special. Nvidia's pricier RTX 4060 Ti has been reviewed, and it edges out its last-gen counterpart in rasterization performance by about 10% overall, according to Tom's Hardware. That's just not a huge gain. The situation is even worse on AMD's side. The RX 7600 only slightly beats out last-gen cards that now sell for less at retail.

In other words, nothing game-changing is coming from either Nvidia or AMD in the world of mainstream graphics cards.

Intel's opportunity

With the launch of its Arc graphics cards last year, Intel (INTC -1.79%) officially entered the discrete graphics card market. The Arc A750 and Arc A770 are aimed at the mainstream portion of the market, and reviews have been generally positive. Early issues with drivers have been largely corrected, and both cards are now reasonable options.

The Arc A750, in particular, is attractive to gamers who really don't want to spend all that much on a graphics card. A recent price drop has brought the Arc A750 down to $199, a full $70 cheaper than AMD's RX 7600.

In Tom's Hardware's review of the RX 7600, it found that the Arc A750 produced average frame rates just 7% below AMD's new mainstream graphics card across 15 games, which include some that support ray tracing. The gap is bigger if those ray tracing games are excluded.

Still, a $200 graphics card that provides capable 1080p gaming performance and trades blows with much pricier cards is an impressive feat.

While Intel's first batch of Arc graphics cards disrupted the market by introducing a third player, its next-generation cards have the potential to make a bigger splash. With AMD and Nvidia launching middling new mainstream graphics cards, Intel has an opportunity to debut a truly disruptive follow-up.

Intel is reportedly planning to launch refreshed versions of its graphics cards sometime in the second half of this year. Then in 2024, the company's next-gen Battlemage architecture will roll out with a new lineup of graphics cards. This road map was leaked in January, so timelines may have changed.

If Intel does manage to launch new mainstream graphics cards this year, the company could win considerable market share if it provides a better value proposition than AMD and Nvidia. There's a large installed base of old mainstream graphics cards -- the 7-year-old Nvidia GTX 1060 is still the No. 2 most used graphics card, according to Steam's hardware and software survey. A refreshed lineup of Arc graphics cards with modest performance improvements and attractive pricing could be all it takes to win over some of those gamers.

Bad timing

One thing that may stop Intel from being aggressive is the state of the PC market. Global PC shipments are tumbling as pandemic-era demand fades and inventory buildups are worked down. Intel's revenue dropped 36% year over year in the first quarter, and the company reported a substantial loss.

Intel is aiming to cut annual costs by as much as $10 billion by the end of 2025, and it's possible that these cuts will impact how it approaches the graphics card market. The company may end up scrapping the 2023 graphics card refresh to focus on the 2024 launch of Battlemage, for example. While Battlemage could bring major performance gains, it may not arrive until mid-2024.

The mainstream graphics card market is ripe for disruption. If Intel can summon the gumption, it could win over gamers who have been waiting for years for an upgrade opportunity. But the company may be forced to play it safe as it aggressively cuts costs and muddles through the current downturn.