First-quarter earnings for Lindblad Expeditions (LIND 4.14%) landed all-time highs in both revenue and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA). While resurgent demand for adventure travel is good news, the cruise company still has some headwinds to contend with in 2023.
Let's look at Lindblad's recent performance and what lies ahead to determine whether this cruise line stock is a buy.
Solid performance by land and sea segments
Lindblad Expeditions transports guests "to the most amazing places on the planet" -- more than 40 destinations in all. Intertwining science, history, and a spirit of discovery into its voyages, Lindblad is known for both thrilling and educating its passengers.
In addition to ocean expeditions, Lindblad also generates significant revenue through land-based subsidiaries Natural Habitat, DuVine Cycling + Adventure, Off the Beaten Path, and Classic Journeys. These entities help diversify Lindblad Expeditions as a business, offering customers both adventure cruises and land-based safaris.
In Q1, Lindblad delivered consolidated revenue of $143 million, a marked 111% increase from last year. Land experiences drove $28 million in revenue for 59% year-over-year growth, while cruise expedition revenue surged $116 million for an impressive 130% gain.
2023's first-quarter revenue also marks a 60% increase over 2019. And as of the Q1 earnings call in early May, bookings for Lindblad sat 45% higher than at the same time in 2019 (for 2020 voyages).
Adjusted EBITDA finished at $27 million -- $48 million more than 2022's Q1 EBITDA loss of $21 million. More importantly, last quarter's EBITDA was a company record and eclipsed 2019's Q1 result by 23%. During the earnings call, CEO Dolf Berle declared, "I'm pleased to say that Q1 2023 results represent all-time highs for Lindblad Expeditions in both revenue and EBITDA."
Cancellations and fuel costs remain elevated
Despite record revenue and EBITDA, CFO Craig Felenstein noted that cancellations for Lindblad were "still higher than they were in 2019 and probably close to two times higher."
Fuel costs present another ongoing headwind for Lindblad. Although fuel prices have come down from Q4 2022, Felenstein said, "They still haven't fully abated, and we're still seeing the impact of higher costs." Higher airfares, especially to places like Australia and New Zealand, have also impaired bookings.
Based on Q1 performance, Lindblad's management team decided to leave full-year guidance unchanged, but Felenstein suggested that it "has a significant amount of variability to it," depending on booking and cancellation trends for the remainder of the year.
Why I think Lindblad Expeditions stock is a buy
During the earnings call, Berle affirmed that cancellations were "settling down significantly" for Lindblad thanks to "COVID becoming less and less of a topic" among its guests last year.The New York-based cruise operator also resumed full operations on its expanded fleet in 2022, a remarkable recovery from the cruise industry's pandemic doldrums.
In addition to all-time high revenue and earnings, another cornerstone of Lindblad's Q1 results was its guest count. Occupancy hit 81% on a much higher capacity than in 2019, thanks to a bigger fleet of expedition cruise ships and more land-based offerings.
Berle explained, "Our first-quarter performance demonstrates the earnings power inherent in the increased capacity of our fleet, as well as the fast-growing land companies."
Despite definitive advancements for the company, Lindblad's stock trades 57% below its March 2021 all-time high. I like Lindblad stock at its current price. As long as COVID remains in the rearview mirror and consumer confidence for adventure travel continues to improve, I think Lindblad's earnings potential will only increase with time.
Therefore, I say buy the dip on Lindblad Expeditions stock while it lasts.
