With the Nasdaq Composite surging 24% year to date, some investors may be worried they've missed out on many of the buying opportunities that presented themselves when the Nasdaq fell 33% in 2022. But there are still opportunities in the market for investors who look close enough.
One tech stock that has impressed this year in terms of both stock performance and underlying business performance is The Trade Desk (TTD 3.35%). Coming off of an exceptional first-quarter report in which management provided upbeat guidance, the ad tech company is one growth stock that seems to be living up to its valuation, even after its shares have surged this year.
Following The Trade Desk's latest quarterly update, analysts have been racing to upgrade their 12-month price targets for the stock. Most of the revised price targets sit at $75 or higher, though the recently updated targets range between $60 and $80 -- quite a tight range for a stock as volatile as The Trade Desk.
The path to $80
Oppenheimer analyst Jason Jelfstein raised his 12-month price target for The Trade Desk shares from $75 to $80 following the company's first-quarter earnings report in early May. Citing The Trade Desk's "best-in-class" demand-side platform and its positioning in fast-growing parts of the advertising market.
Given the company's recent performance, it's difficult to make a case against The Trade Desk's underlying business. Despite a tough macroeconomic environment suppressing growth for almost every major tech company's digital advertising business, The Trade Desk managed to grow first-quarter revenue at a staggering rate of 21% year over year.
Confirming Helfstein's bullish view of The Trade Desk's cutting-edge, market-leading platform, the company is taking significant market share, given its growth rate relative to the approximately flat growth most other digital advertisers are reporting this year. "As customers seek to optimize their ad spend, The Trade Desk is well-positioned to deliver value and drive [return on investment] as we demonstrated in late 2020," The Trade Desk management explained in the company's first-quarter earnings call.
The path to $60
But not all analysts are so bullish. Surprisingly, varying views for the stock's 12-month price target have little to do with the underlying business but rather analyst views of the stock's valuation. Morgan Stanley analyst Matthew Cost, for instance, was perhaps equally impressed with The Trade Desk's first-quarter update, noting that the company is outpacing the competition and the broader advertising market. But the analyst has had a view for some time that the stock's valuation "seems full." His price target of $60 for the stock reflects this view.
Interestingly, even Oppenheimer's Helfstein mentioned in his note to investors after the earnings report that valuation is the only main concern about the stock at this point. The analyst seems to think it's worth taking a bite at this point anyway, hence the firm's price target of $80 for the stock.
So is The Trade Desk stock a buy today? For investors willing to endure the stock's volatility and hold for the long haul, the company's strong business performance recently makes a great case for paying up for shares. But investors may want to keep any purchases small as a portion of their total portfolio. The stock does seem borderline fully valued, with a price-to-free-cash-flow ratio of about 66.
