Novo Nordisk's (NVO 1.92%) semaglutide is everywhere in the news, and for good reason. Thanks to its ability to help people lose weight and control their diabetes symptoms, its moneymaking potential is practically off the charts. And there's a preliminary but growing body of evidence which suggests that in the future semaglutide could rake in even more greenbacks than it already is. Here's how that might happen.
It may eventually treat more than obesity and diabetes
At the moment, semaglutide is indicated to treat obesity and type 2 diabetes, and it's available in a few different formulations, which vary depending on the dosage and whether it's administered via a weekly injection or a once-per-day pill. You've probably seen the advertisements for Ozempic, Rybelsus, and Wegovy -- they're all semaglutide, and there's a shrinking chance that the trio will be the only three trade names for the molecule.
The company's obesity and diabetes care segment was worth more than $7 billion in the first quarter of 2023 alone, up 31% from a year prior due to scaling revenue from the launch of Wegovy. And as Novo Nordisk works to advance its semaglutide programs still in the pipeline, it could soon market the drug for non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and Alzheimer's disease, both of which are currently being investigated in phase 3 clinical trials.
But there's another major market that could be lurking for semaglutide: addiction therapies. While the biological mechanisms aren't yet comprehensively understood, there are a few preliminary pieces of evidence that suggest the drug could interact with the brain's reward system in a way that reduces impulsive consumption of substances other than food.
Many patients have reported that their disordered cravings for alcohol and drugs were reduced while being treated with semaglutide for obesity or diabetes. Some addiction doctors are already prescribing it in their practices off-label, so there's already a positive (but likely negligible) revenue impact in play. What's more, a couple of scientific publications describing experiments with animals support the potential merits of this approach.
Per a report by Data Bridge Market Research, the global market for addiction therapies could grow to become as large as $30.7 billion by 2030. If Novo Nordisk investigates with clinical trials of its own, it could become the first mover in an entirely new branch of the field of addiction medicine and capture a huge swath of the market. And eventually, if those new programs make it past regulators to be commercialized, it'd make it even more profitable than before, doubtlessly driving shareholders to get a bit richer, too.
Don't put the cart before the horse
It's important for investors to understand the hype surrounding semaglutide and put its prospects into context. Right now, semaglutide is the hottest drug on the market, and there are countless stories across its intended and also improvised use cases.
But most of the research and development work surrounding its potential application as a therapy for addiction is yet to begin, and a bunch of anecdotes from patients are not enough for investors to act on today. In other words, don't buy this stock based on public speculation, even if a few (very) preliminary signs seem to substantiate some of the hype.
Furthermore, there is a real risk for investors who buy Novo Nordisk stock today that the expectation about its performance will get ahead of the financial results it can realistically achieve. Its obesity care sales exploded by 131% year over year in the first quarter alone; that rate of growth is so absurdly fast that it will almost certainly drop significantly in the next couple of years.
Given that it could take the pharma a handful of years to investigate the merits of any possible new indications in clinical trials, it is not reasonable to assume that the pace of growth will be sustainable by any newly initiated programs. And management hasn't said a peep about even starting to think about doing those trials as of yet.
So keep a close eye on what Novo Nordisk says about its pipeline with regard to semaglutide over the next year or so. If it announces any new semaglutide programs targeting addiction, it'll be one step closer to reaching a new market. That would imply shareholders are exposed to more upside than before. Just remember that clinical trials can fail, especially when they're investigating pioneering treatments in a field as difficult and complex as addiction medicine.
