Amazon (AMZN -2.61%) currently has a market capitalization of $1.3 trillion, making it one of only six public companies worth more than $1 trillion. But the company has a strong foothold in several growing industries that could propel its valuation to $4 trillion by 2030. That means shareholders could see a total return of more than 200% through the end of the decade.

Here's what investors should know.

The investment thesis for Amazon

Amazon has evolved beyond its retail roots, branching into digital advertising, cloud computing, and artificial intelligence (AI) software. The investment thesis centers on its strong presence in those quickly growing markets.

E-commerce: Amazon runs the most popular online marketplace in the world. It receives about four times as many visitors as its closest competitor, and eMarketer says its market share across North America and Western Europe will reach 38.7% this year, up from 38.2% last year. That success is a product of immense brand authority. The Amazon brand is synonymous with e-commerce. But it also hints at a powerful network effect. Merchants tend to gravitate toward the most popular marketplace, and in doing so, they reinforce its popularity with consumers.

Amazon has turbocharged the flywheel that powers its business with fulfillment services for sellers and fast shipping for buyers. Those value-added services make its marketplace even more compelling. With that in mind, retail e-commerce sales are expected to increase at 13.6% annually through 2030, according to Ameco Research, and Amazon will undoubtedly benefit from that tailwind.

Digital advertising: Amazon is expected to surpass Alibaba this year to become the third-largest ad tech company in the world, according to eMarketer. That success stems from its thriving retail business. Millions of consumers visit the Amazon marketplace each day, and those visitors generate a tremendous amount of shopper data. The combination of a highly trafficked marketplace and troves of data makes Amazon an ideal advertising partner.

Looking ahead, digital advertising should be a key growth driver for Amazon. Ad tech spend is expected to increase by 13.7% annually through 2030, according to Grand View Research.

Cloud computing: Consultancy Gartner has recognized Amazon Web Services (AWS) as the leader in cloud infrastructure and platform services (CIPS) for 12 consecutive years. The latest report states that AWS still has the greatest breadth and depth of CIPS capabilities of any provider, and it commands twice as much market share as its closest competitor, Microsoft Azure. That puts AWS in a good position because cloud spend is expected to grow at 14.1% annually through 2030, according to Grand View Research.

Artificial intelligence: Amazon has the most comprehensive suite of AI and machine learning services on the market. Indeed, Gartner just recognized AWS as the leader in cloud AI developer services earlier this year. But shortly after that report was published, AWS launched two products that promise to reinforce its strong market presence and create new revenue streams surrounding generative AI, a technology made popular by ChatGPT and AutoGPT.

The first is Amazon Bedrock, a service that streamlines the development of generative AI applications by providing access to foundational AI models for text and images. The second is Amazon CodeWhisperer, a service that streamlines software development by using generative AI to write undifferentiated code. That allows developers to spend more time on creative or innovative aspects of their coding projects.

So what? Ark Invest says the market for AI software could grow at 42% annually to reach $14 trillion by 2030. And Amazon is particularly well positioned to benefit from that tailwind given its leadership in CIPS and cloud AI developer services.

Why Amazon could be worth $4 trillion by 2030

As mentioned, Amazon currently has a market capitalization of $1.3 trillion, and shares trade at 2.6 times sales, a discount to the five-year average of 3.6 times sales. Based on the growth estimates discussed in the previous section, the company has the potential to grow revenue at 14% annually through the end of the decade by keeping up with the broad growth in each market. That estimate aligns with projected growth rates in e-commerce, cloud computing, and digital advertising, and it looks conservative compared to the 22% annualized revenue growth Amazon reported over the last five years.

If its top line does indeed increase at 14% annually through the end of the decade, Amazon would generate $1.4 trillion in revenue in 2030. That means its market capitalization would reach $4 trillion provided that its price-to-sales multiple expanded to 2.8 times sales. That seems entirely plausible in the context of its average valuation over the last five years.