Artificial intelligence (AI) is for real. The amazing progress in AI -- and the skyrocketing share prices of AI leaders -- has proven it over the last several months.
My portfolio is worth considerably more now than at the end of 2022 because of the AI boom. I like several AI stocks. But if I could buy only one AI stock right now, which would it be?
Multiple contenders, one standout
I only have to glance at the stocks that have been big winners for me to find several top AI contenders. Microsoft made a brilliant move by investing heavily in OpenAI and partnering with the company to integrate ChatGPT into its own products. My only regret with Microsoft is that I wish I had owned more shares.
Nvidia has absolutely crushed it this year. We might have to change the old saying that something is "selling like hotcakes" to "selling like GPUs," the graphics processing units Nvidia markets that are ideal for powering AI systems.
Meta Platforms is another great performer so far in 2023. The company is best known for its social media platform, which now includes the wildly popular Threads app. But Meta's open-source approach has made it a serious contender in AI as well.
Amazon has made its mark in AI, too. It has introduced multiple new AI products that should make its Amazon Web Services cloud platform even more attractive to developers.
There are also quite a few promising AI stocks that I haven't bought. However, the one AI stock I'd buy right now is already a major holding for me -- Google parent Alphabet (GOOG 5.33%) (GOOGL 5.59%).
Clearing several hurdles
Alphabet clears several hurdles in a way that the other contenders don't. Valuation stands at the top of the list.
My colleague Travis Hoium thinks that Alphabet stock is "insanely cheap." I wouldn't go quite that far, but I certainly agree with the overall sentiment, especially in comparison with most of the other AI leaders.
Alphabet shares trade at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of less than 23. That's a bargain price when you stack it up against Nvidia's forward earnings multiple of 62. If a big pullback is on the way (and I suspect one is), Alphabet stock should fare better than many of its high-flying brethren.
I also think Alphabet has firmly established its AI credentials. Some thought it could be in trouble after the early success of ChatGPT and the less-than-stellar debut of the company's own Google Bard. However, Alphabet has held its own. I have personally seen the company dramatically improve Bard over time as well as introduce other impressive AI innovations.
Alphabet's financial position is another huge plus, in my view. It's highly profitable. The company has a cash stockpile of more than $115 billion.
Finally, Alphabet is arguably the top leader in one area that could turbocharge AI advances and adoption -- quantum computing. There's still a long way to go before quantum computing technology might achieve its potential. Maybe it never will. But if any company can make it happen, it's Alphabet.
Less risky than some think
Some argue that Alphabet is a risky proposition because of AI. They maintain that Google Search could be disrupted by chatbots or other AI apps. I understand those concerns, but I believe that Alphabet is less risky than they think.
For one thing, Google Search's market share has held relatively steady, according to Bank of America analysts Justin Post and Joanna Zhao. A BofA survey even found that 45% of ChatGPT users will use Google Search even more with the integration of generative AI.
Anecdotally, I've found that I use Google Search as much as I ever have with subjects that tend to attract advertisers. And I use ChatGPT, Bard, and other chatbots quite a bit. I also have access to Google Search's experimental conversational AI integration and find it helpful.
My view is that the biggest risk for any AI stock over the near term is related to valuation. As previously mentioned, Alphabet competes especially well on this front.
I predict that multiple stocks will be huge winners over the next decade and beyond with the increased adoption of AI. But at least for right now, in my opinion, Alphabet is the most attractive of the bunch.