Appetite-curbing treatments and weight-loss supplements are taking the world by storm. In particular, a number of diabetes and obesity medications developed by Novo Nordisk (NVO -0.48%) and Eli Lilly are experiencing surging demand. Novo Nordisk is a Danish pharmaceutical company behind the wildly popular drugs Ozempic, Wegovy, Rybelsus, and Saxenda. Chances are you've seen commercials or heard the catchy jingles for some of these treatments.
While weight-loss supplements have been around for a long time, Novo Nordisk's and Eli Lilly's treatments are still fairly new to market. Nonetheless, each of these pharma giants is generating billions of dollars in sales based on the global popularity of the medications. With so many people flocking to take these drugs and seemingly unlimited marketing budgets, is it reasonable to believe that Ozempic and similar treatments will put a dent in the food and beverage industry?
PepsiCo (PEP 1.92%) is one of the largest, most iconic soda and snack brands in the world. The company just reported earnings, and its CFO directly addressed Ozempic. Let's explore what Pepsi's management told investors; you may be surprised.
Will snacking go away?
Following Pepsi's earnings call, the company's CFO Hugh Johnston spoke about the impacts of Ozempic and appetite-curbing drugs on the business. The post below from X (formerly Twitter) shows a portion of the interview.
PepsiCo CFO Hugh Johnston says the food and snack maker is not seeing the impact of Ozempic or other appetite-suppressing drugs on its sales so far https://t.co/x24yXyfn7U pic.twitter.com/FN0FZDQ4vD
-- Bloomberg TV (@BloombergTV) October 10, 2023
During the call Johnston discussed his views on food consumption and snacking. He believes snacking is not going to disappear overnight (if at all). Moreover, he makes it clear that if enough data points to meaningful shifts in consumption behavior by consumers, Pepsi will "migrate with them."
PepsiCo has been a solid investment
PepsiCo grew revenue 7% year over year to $23.5 billion during its third quarter, which ended Sept. 9. What's more, the company increased sales across all reportable segments with the exception of its Africa, Middle East and South Asia division, which was relatively flat.
Although this level of revenue growth is respectable, my eyes are on the bottom line. PepsiCo is a massively profitable operation; during Q3 it grew its net income by 15% to $3.1 billion. Moreover, the company's balance sheet shows over $10 billion in cash and equivalents.
The chart above illustrates the total return level of its shares over the last ten years. Of note, this analysis includes dividends reinvested into the stock. The main takeaway is that over a long period, owning Pepsi stock and reinvesting the dividends has been a very profitable position.
Bad news for food and beverage companies?
I recently wrote about the short report aimed at PepsiCo's top rival, Coca-Cola, which covered new competition in the beverage space and the rising popularity of weight-loss supplements such as Ozempic. While I took a different stance, I understood the rationale behind its bearish outlook: Businesses such as these have faced competition for decades. Sometimes this competition comes in the form of a rival product; other times it's less tangible, such as influences on consumer behavior from other industries. With regard to Ozempic, Johnston made it clear that Pepsi is "studying it closely."
I think it's too early to decisively say whether Ozempic and similar treatments are really impacting companies such as PepsiCo. Concerns are merited, but Pepsi's proven track record of growing the business across a wide array of food and beverage products, coupled with its strong liquidity position, makes me believe that the pessimistic sentiment around this and other consumer-staples businesses is overblown.
I view PepsiCo as a contrarian investment opportunity, and think now is an interesting time to begin building a long-term position in the iconic brand.