The big winners of the past aren't always the big winners of the future. However, that doesn't mean that it won't be the case.
In 2023, the so-called "Magnificent Seven" stocks ruled the stock market. Each of the seven stocks skyrocketed by 48% or more (for some, much more). But how does Wall Street think they'll perform going forward?
Not-so-magnificent forecasts
Wall Street has some not-so-magnificent forecasts for most of the "Magnificent Seven." Meta Platforms (META +1.41%) delivered the second-biggest gain of the group last year, with its share price nearly tripling in value. The stock is off to a good start in 2024 as well, rising more than 10%. The average 12-month price target for Meta is even lower than its current share price now, though.
NASDAQ: META
Key Data Points
Analysts don't have great expectations for Alphabet, either. The Google parent's shares vaulted 58% higher in 2023. The consensus price target for the stock today reflects a meager upside potential of around 2%.
Apple doesn't fare much better on Wall Street. Although the tech giant's shares jumped 48% last year, analysts' average price target for the stock is only 3% above the current share price.
Microsoft is running neck-and-neck with Apple as the biggest company based on market cap after a 57% gain in 2023. Analysts aren't looking for the momentum to continue, however. The consensus price target reflects an upside potential of around 4%.
No large-cap stock generated as much excitement last year as Nvidia (NVDA +1.31%). The generative AI boom drove the chipmaker's share price up a whopping 239%. Nvidia has extended those gains so far in 2024, rising close to 25%. The party won't keep going, according to Wall Street. The average price target for Nvidia is less than 5% above its current share price.
Wall Street's favorites
If you've kept count, we've ruled out five of the "Magnificent Seven" stocks. That leaves only Tesla (TSLA +7.57%) and Amazon (AMZN 0.21%).
Tesla boasts the greatest upside potential based on the latest data available even after its shares more than doubled last year. The average 12-month price target for the stock is nearly 24% above the electric vehicle maker's current share price.
NASDAQ: TSLA
Key Data Points
However, there's a big gotcha. Tesla's shares sank last week after the company announced disappointing fourth-quarter results. Its warning of a major slowdown in sales growth in 2024 was especially worrisome. Don't be surprised if some analysts soon lower their price targets for the stock.
Amazon stock vaulted 81% higher in 2023. Many on Wall Street think that it will keep the momentum going this year. The consensus price target for Amazon reflects an upside potential of nearly 16%.
NASDAQ: AMZN
Key Data Points
There's also more of a consensus about Amazon than there is for Tesla. Of the 47 analysts surveyed by LSEG in January who cover the stock, 43 rated it as a buy or strong buy. Only eight of the 23 analysts who cover Tesla recommended it as a buy or a strong buy. Seven analysts rated the stock as an "underperform" or recommended selling it.
Are the analysts right?
I wouldn't bet the farm that any of Wall Street's price targets will prove to be accurate. There's no way to know for sure how a given stock will perform over a 12-month period.
If I had to guess which of these stocks will beat analysts' expectations the most, I'd go with Meta. Its valuation looks relatively attractive. I won't be surprised if the company's earnings continue to grow if the economy doesn't falter.
Which "Magnificent Seven" stock is Wall Street most likely to be right about? Probably Amazon, in my opinion. The company's profitability and free cash flow are improving significantly. Amazon also has a big opportunity as IT spending transitions to the cloud, as do Alphabet and Microsoft.
