The first week of June is shaping up to be a big week for space investors.
After scrubbing its first "Crew Flight Test" of Boeing's (BA +5.43%) Starliner spacecraft Saturday, the Boeing and Lockheed Martin joint venture United Launch Alliance (ULA) elected not to retry the launch Sunday, but postpone to later this week -- probably June 5 or 6. Assuming the launch comes off as planned, this will mark Boeing's first successful launch of a crewed spacecraft under its commercial crew contract with NASA, and the first real competition for SpaceX's dominance in crewed spaceflight.
Teams at @NASA and @BoeingSpace confirmed on Monday that the #Starliner spacecraft, @ulalaunch Atlas V rocket, and ground support equipment are healthy and ready for the 10:52am ET June 5 launch of the agency's Boeing Crew Flight Test.
-- NASA Commercial Crew (@Commercial_Crew) June 3, 2024
Meteorologists with @SLDelta45 predict 90%... pic.twitter.com/VEiYQlgHAy
Coincidentally, June 6 may also mark another test flight of SpaceX's answer to Starliner, its own reusable Starship -- a combination of a new booster rocket (Super Heavy) and attached spacecraft (the Starship proper). The fully stacked Starship is preparing for its fourth uncrewed test flight after three previous abortive attempts.
Flight 4 of Starship is now targeted to launch as early as June 6, pending regulatory approvalhttps://t.co/XjreI7nQOp pic.twitter.com/Pgg0IqlP24
-- SpaceX (@SpaceX) June 1, 2024
Rounding out the list of June space-happenings, over in Europe: Arianespace, a 50-50 joint venture between Airbus (EADSY 1.66%) and Safran SA, continues to work out the kinks on its own next-generation rocket, the Ariane 6. Four years overdue and already apparently overbudget, the Ariane 6 is preparing for its first flight (also uncrewed); this could be Arianespace's last chance to remain relevant in an increasingly crowded space race.
It may also serve to highlight the fact that this increasingly looks like a race between two dinosaurs -- and one particular raptor that's evolved to fly faster (and cheaper) than either of its biggest rivals.
Image source: Getty Images.
A space race among dinosaurs
Stakes seem high for both Boeing and Airbus.
Boeing has already recorded losses approaching $1 billion on the Starliner project, which failed its first launch attempt in 2019, and only passed its second attempt in 2022 if graded on a curve. We've been waiting ever since for Boeing to make a third attempt, this time with astronauts on board. Notably, Starliner was supposed to try to fly last summer; attempts to launch this summer have so far been stymied by technical glitches ranging from sticky valves to a perpetually leaking helium tank.
Most worryingly, further delays could snowball, with a busy traffic schedule of spacecraft coming and going at the International Space Station (ISS) this summer. Ars Technica noted last month that if Starliner can't get off the pad in June, it might be able to reschedule for July. Failing that, though, August and September both look pretty booked at ISS, potentially forcing Boeing to wait until October or later for its launch -- as losses from the program mount.
In such a case, we might see Arianespace get its new rocket in orbit before Boeing can launch Starliner. Admittedly, this would be more of a PR victory than anything else. But considering how long Airbus investors (and Arianespace customers) have been waiting for this rocket to get airborne, the company would certainly welcome some good news -- and positive publicity for a rocket designed to compete not only with SpaceX's Falcon 9, but also with the ULA's new Vulcan Centaur rocket (which made its own successful first launch in January).
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Dinosaurs versus the SpaceX meteor
Of course, all the above could become irrelevant depending on the results of Starship flight test No. 4.
Last time around, SpaceX's Super Heavy booster failed to achieve a soft water landing when some of its engines failed to reignite on descent. Soon after, Starship seemed to lose control and break apart while reentering the atmosphere. SpaceX has made tweaks to both elements of the megarocket, however, and will now try to get both to survive to their intended endpoints.
Success would set up SpaceX for a fifth flight test, one that might see one or both elements successfully land on solid ground -- a crucial goal for proving Starship can function as a reusable rocket. And future tests would follow, eventually seeking certification for Starship to carry human passengers as well as cargo.
What would that mean for Boeing and Airbus? Their rival SpaceX would have a fully reusable rocket and spacecraft, descending meteor-like from the skies, over and over again in repeated blazes of glory. This megarocket would be ready for reuse at a fraction of the cost of building new rockets (like Ariane 6) and capable of carrying massively greater payloads than either Ariane 6 or the Vulcan Centaur, and many more astronauts than Starliner.
Whichever of these missions ends up launching first, I'm pretty confident which of these three space companies will still be around at the last.
