There's no skirting the fact that beverage and snack producer PepsiCo (PEP 1.13%) missed the mark last quarter. Although earnings rolled in better than expected, sales fell short of estimates.
Revenue guidance for the remainder of the year was lackluster as well. Shares initially fell in response to Thursday morning's release of the news.
But there's a reason PepsiCo stock was bouncing back later that very day: Most investors seem to be seeing the same things I am. In fact, here's exactly why I would be a buyer of the stock despite the company's second-quarter sales shortfall.
Reasons for a less-than-thrilling Q2
For the three-month stretch ending in mid-June, PepsiCo turned $22.5 billion worth of revenue into an organic profit of $2.28 per share. Not bad. Sales improved 2% year over year, while earnings were up from the year-ago comparison of $2.09. Analysts were only calling for a bottom line of $2.16 per share.
The only missteps: The top line missed estimates of $22.57 billion, and the company reworded its 2024 organic revenue-growth guidance from "at least 4%" to just "approximately 4% organic revenue growth." The market flinched, sending shares down by as much 3.3%.
The sell-off didn't last, however. The bulls were plowing back in the latter half of Thursday's trading session.
NASDAQ: PEP
Key Data Points
Much of the rebound can be chalked up to a deeper understanding of exactly what went wrong during the second quarter.
Take the setback for its Quaker Foods division as an example. Although it's only a minor piece of PepsiCo's total business, its revenue fell 21% year over year last quarter largely due to a recall of its granola bars and cereals beginning late last year. The recall's underlying problems, however, lingered into this year. Indeed, they ultimately forced the closure of a factory in April. It's a challenge to be sure, even if only a temporary one.
PepsiCo's other big headwind might not be quite as temporary. That's inflation, and the toll it's taking on consumer spending. While the second quarter's beverage sales by volume were flat year over year, its Frito-Lay snack chip business' volume slipped 4% during the second quarter due to what CEO Ramon Laguarta described as consumers becoming "much more price conscious."
PepsiCo is bigger than its current problems
But the stock would still be compelling even if either or both of these problems were likely to linger.
That doesn't mean the company can afford to simply ignore its current challenges. But with shares down 10% from May's peak and back to their late-2021 price, these challenges are largely already reflected in the stock's price and then some, given how Laguarta defined Frito-Lay's challenge with price-conscious consumers.
The CEO said: "They're asking for more value, and they're willing to compromise in some of their decisions. So that's the problem to address."
As for the solutions, Laguarta said, "I think once we address that situation, we'll be back in growth, and we feel pretty good about the tools and the resources we have and the actions that we're taking, and we're quite encouraged by recent performance of the business."
He has a reason to feel good about the future. Frito-Lay's core brands like Doritos, Lays, Cheetos, and Tostitos are by far the best-selling chips in the U.S., and they do pretty well outside of the U.S., too.
They're also offered in multiple iterations and package sizes. Now the company is just tweaking how it gets them into consumers' hands. Although Laguarta didn't dive into the details during Thursday's earnings call, the "tools and resources" he mentioned are largely a reference to the digital data platform PepsiCo has been investing heavily in since 2021.
And relief may be on the horizon. June's just-released inflation report indicates the first month-to-month dip in prices since early 2020. The factory closure linked to the company's recalls of a couple of Quaker products is also temporary.
In the meantime, newcomers would be buying PepsiCo stock while it has a forward-looking dividend yield of just over 3.3%. That's better than investors' industry-favorite Coca-Cola, which currently yields 3.1%.
Coca-Cola has a slightly longer history of annual dividend increases, but with 52 consecutive years of dividend hikes, PepsiCo is certainly no slouch in this regard. Its dividend growth also has outpaced Coke's for the past 20 years, as have its stock gains.
Quick: Take a sip while nobody's looking
The market is still not resoundingly bullish on PepsiCo, to be clear. It simply reversed course on Thursday's intraday sell-off. There's no serious threat of the stock suddenly racing higher without warning.
Investors simply seem to be waiting on the sidelines for a little more perspective on the company's problems, and a little more information regarding its solutions.
With shares of this resilient company already down to the degree they are, however, would-be shareholders might want to go ahead and wade in here at this low price. This is one of those scenarios where a rebound could quietly take hold and slowly pull the stock higher while nobody's looking.
This might help: Even with PepsiCo's current challenges, the analyst community's consensus price target stands at $184.08 -- more than 12% above the stock's present value.
