Seventy-two days. That's how much time remains before millions of Americans head to the polls to vote for the next U.S. president. Many will cast their votes even earlier.
I won't attempt to predict which presidential candidate will prevail in what's almost certain to be a very close election. However, I have a good idea about which stocks will perform well if the Democrats hold on to the White House.
Several of those stocks are in Warren Buffett's portfolio. I predict these Buffett stocks will be big winners if Harris beats Donald Trump in November.
Harris' affordable housing plan
Before I reveal which Buffett stocks I have in mind, allow me first to explain why I selected them. My reasoning is based on Harris' recently announced economic plan. In particular, I think her affordable housing proposals hold the potential to provide a key catalyst for some stocks.
Image source: Getty Images.
Harris wants 3 million new housing units to be built over the next four years. This number includes both rental housing and homes for sale. It's an ambitious number that could make a major dent in the current U.S. housing shortage. Zillow estimates that the country is short 4.5 million homes.
How does Harris plan to achieve this goal? For one thing, she proposes providing a tax incentive for homebuilders who sell homes to first-time buyers. The vice president also wants to create a $40 billion innovation fund that would help local governments address housing needs in their areas.
Arguably, the most important component of Harris' affordable housing plan is to give $25,000 to first-time homebuyers to help with their down payments. Only individuals who have paid rent on time for at least two years would qualify for the financial assistance.
Three clear winners in Buffett's portfolio
It doesn't take an investing genius to understand that Harris' housing plan would likely provide a big boost to housing stocks, including those in the residential construction and building products industries. And one investing genius (I'm referring to Buffett, of course) already owns a handful of stocks in those industries.
Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway owns roughly $25.3 million worth of Lennar (LEN +0.33%) stock. Lennar is one of the largest homebuilders in the U.S. It builds both single-family and multifamily housing.
NYSE: LEN
Key Data Points
Berkshire's portfolio also includes nearly $100 million of NVR (NVR 0.69%) stock. Like Lennar, NVR is one of the nation's biggest homebuilders. The company's Ryan Homes unit, which builds single-family homes, townhouses, and garden condominiums, would especially benefit from Harris' proposals.
NYSE: NVR
Key Data Points
In addition to these two homebuilders, Berkshire owns an 8.5% stake in Louisiana-Pacific (LPX +5.23%), currently worth nearly $557 million. Louisiana-Pacific is a leading provider of engineered wood siding and structural building panels. Although the company wouldn't be directly impacted by Harris' plan to give tax incentives to homebuilders, its sales could increase due to the surge in new homes built by all of the vice president's proposals.
NYSE: NVR
Key Data Points
Great long-term picks in any scenario
I predict that Lennar, NVR, and Louisiana-Pacific stocks will pop if Harris defeats Trump. However, those gains could be short-lived if she doesn't have enough support in Congress to pass her agenda during her first term.
But I think these three stocks are great long-term picks in any scenario. If Harris wins and Democrats control both the House of Representatives and the Senate, they should especially perform well. Even if neither happens, though, Lennar, NVR, and Louisiana-Pacific should deliver solid gains over the long run because the housing shortage will be an issue regardless of which party is in power.
