Generating income from an investment for the rest of your life is a tall order, regardless of your age or risk tolerance. To have that level of confidence in a company, the business has to be operationally sound and endure economic cycles. It should have financial credibility, a strong balance sheet, and a pathway toward growing earnings and dividend payouts.
Dividend Kings are a rare breed of companies that have paid and raised their dividends for at least 50 consecutive years. While that track record doesn't guarantee a company will increase its dividend for another 50 years, it shows that it has raised its payout even during economic slowdowns, recessions, geopolitical risk, conflicts, and other challenging periods.
Here's why these Fool.com contributors think Emerson Electric (EMR +0.16%), Illinois Tool Works (ITW 0.65%), and California Water Service Group (CWT 1.08%) are three top dividend stocks to buy now.
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Emerson Electric is outperforming, given the circumstances
Lee Samaha (Emerson Electric): At the time of writing, Emerson Electric stock is down 11.5% in the month, and I think that's creating a useful entry point into an exciting stock. There are no prizes for guessing why the stock has declined recently; the market reacted negatively to the company's financial third-quarter earnings report at the start of August.
However, under the circumstances, the results weren't that bad. For example, Emerson's automation peer Rockwell Automation started the year expecting its full-year organic sales to be between a 2% decline and a 4% increase. Fast-forward to its Q3 results (released on the same day as Emerson's), and management now expects it to be down by 10%.
Emerson also has exposure to the kind of factory, or discrete automation, that Rockwell is more focused on. Emerson, too, is seeing weakness in that area. Emerson's management also said its test and measurement business (a business acquired late last year) sales were "slightly below expectations for the quarter." Both end markets are not expected to recover until 2025.
That said, its process and hybrid automation markets remain "steady at mid-single-digit growth, as we continue to see investments, particularly in [liquefied natural gas] LNG, life sciences, energy, and sustainability," according to CEO Lal Karsanbhai on the recent earnings call.
The two areas of weakness (discrete automation and test and measurement) are experiencing some cyclical pressure due to a slowing industrial sector. Still, Emerson's traditional strength in process and hybrid automation supports ongoing growth until the challenged markets recover next year.
With management expecting $2.8 billion in free cash flow (FCF) in 2024, Emerson trades on 21 times the estimated FCF. That's a decent valuation for a company whose earnings and cash flow will likely improve as interest rates come down and the underlying trend toward more automation spending kicks in.
NYSE: EMR
Key Data Points
The sell-off in ITW is a buying opportunity
Daniel Foelber (Illinois Tool Works): Illinois Tool Works, commonly known as ITW, has been an excellent long-term investment, with a total return (gains plus dividends) that has outperformed the S&P 500 over the last decade.
But despite sizable gains in the broader market, ITW stock is down year to date, due to slowing growth and macroeconomic challenges.
While the sell-off is understandable, it would be a mistake to get too caught up with ITW's short-term outlook and miss what has been a rock-solid passive income source for decades.
Even with its exposure to a variety of cyclical end markets, ITW has paid and raised its dividend for over 50 consecutive years. In early August, the company raised its dividend by 7% to $1.50 per share per quarter, or $6.00 per share per year -- representing a forward yield of 2.4%. Factoring in the raise, ITW's payout ratio is still just 59% based on its trailing 12 months of earnings -- suggesting its dividend is affordable.
You may wonder how an industrial company prone to economic cycles can make sizable and consistent raises to its dividend. The answer is ITW's diversified business model. The company has dozens of brands that cover seven segments: Automotive original equipment manufacturing, construction products, food equipment, polymers and fluids, specialty products, test and measurement and electronics, and welding.
The diversification helps offset any slowdown in a particular end market. But there are plenty of cases of inefficient, large conglomerates that are diversified but operate poorly performing business units. So it takes both diversification and operational execution for a conglomerate to be successful. ITW has these qualities in spades.
ITW is unique because it is a behemoth of a company, yet is remarkably efficient. Its Q2 2024 operating margin was a record high 26.2% -- meaning ITW is booking a little over 26 cents in operating income for every dollar in revenue. ITW is also an efficient capital allocator because it makes purposeful investments and avoids reckless acquisitions. In other words, ITW strives to generate profits from high-margin and high-quality business units, not grow sales solely to get bigger.
ITW's valuation looked a little expensive, but strong earnings and a lower stock price have pushed its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio closer to historical averages, making it a good value in a mostly expensive market.
ITW PE Ratio data by YCharts.
Add it all up, and ITW is a great Dividend King to consider buying now.
For dependable dividends, dip your toes in a California Water Service Group investment
Scott Levine (California Water Service Group): Artificial intelligence stocks may be the sexiest niche of the investing world right now, but there's something to be said for tried-and-true stalwarts that can fortify your portfolio with reliable passive income. Take California Water Service, for instance.
Instead of dominating the headlines with technological advancements, the water utility does what it has done for decades: Provide customers with water service and reward investors with steadily increasing dividends. It's clear that this Dividend King -- along with its 2.1% forward-yielding stock -- is a great choice for investors right now.
While California Water Service has paid a dividend for 318 consecutive quarters, it's the past 57 years that warrant particular attention -- a period during which the company has logged consecutive annual dividend raises. Unlike those flashier stocks with their potential for rapid growth, California Water Service lies at the other end of the spectrum, aiming for slow and steady growth through the acquisitions of small municipal utilities. And contrary to its name, the company isn't limiting its scope to the Golden State. Management is targeting 1% annual growth in customers over the next five years, including possible diversification into several other states: Hawaii, Washington, New Mexico, and Texas.
Because the company operates primarily in regulated markets -- providing about 91% of operating revenue in 2023 -- management has an excellent sense of future cash flows. This, in turn, provides it with the ability to adequately plan for capital expenditures such as acquisitions and dividends. Unsurprisingly, this lower-risk business model appeals to conservative investors, as does the company's circumspect approach to its dividend policy. Over the past 10 years, for instance, California Water Service has averaged a 62% payout ratio.
With California Water Service stock featuring a five-year average cash flow multiple of 12.6, today seems like a great day to click the buy button -- with the stock currently valued at only 7.6 times operating cash flow.
