Energy Transfer (ET +2.46%) has long sought to convert its existing Lake Charles LNG import and regasification facility to a liquified natural gas (LNG) export terminal. It started working on that project about a decade ago. It has encountered several obstacles along the way, including turbulent market conditions and regulatory issues.
However, after many delays, the master limited partnership (MLP) is getting closer to making a positive Final Investment Decision on that project. It recently took another crucial step toward that outcome by bringing on Chevron (CVX +2.91%) as a customer for the proposed facility.
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Securing an important customer
Energy Transfer wants to convert Lake Charles into an export facility with nearly 16.5 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of LNG capacity. It has spent years securing the customers needed to commercialize the facility. It recently entered into a 20-year sale and purchase agreement with Chevron for 2 MTPA of capacity.
Securing Chevron as a customer is notable. The energy giant is an important player in the global LNG industry. It shows Chevron's confidence in the project, which Energy Transfer believes is among the most compelling on the U.S. Gulf Coast. The deal would enable Chevron to supply the world with more low-cost, lower-carbon energy.
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Chevron adds to the growing number of commercial customers backing the project. In late 2023, the company had secured contracts for nearly 8 MTPA of capacity. Other notable customers include Shell, its former joint venture partner on the project, along with Expand Energy, EQT, and several international gas customers. Analysts estimate that Energy Transfer will need to secure customer contracts for about 12 MTPA of capacity to approve the project.
Regulatory issues have been a major factor affecting the company's ability to secure additional customers over the past year. The Department of Energy declined to approve an extension of the company's export permit. On top of that, the Biden administration paused approving new LNG export terminals. However, with the more fossil fuel-friendly Trump administration taking over in January, Energy Transfer should be able to obtain the necessary approvals to move forward with this project.
2025 could finally be the year
Energy Transfer's management team believes the election could mark a turning point for Lake Charles LNG. Co-CEO Marshal McCrea stated on the company's third-quarter conference call, which occurred right after the election, that he's "very bullish on getting LNG to the finish line."
In addition to the permit approvals, Energy Transfer must secure additional customer capacity contracts. It also wants to bring in one or more strategic financial partners to help fund a portion of the project's cost. The company had previously stated that it would like to sell down its stake in the project to around 20%. It has been negotiating with energy companies that would invest in the project and take substantial volumes. It's also working with infrastructure funds to invest in the project.
Maintaining a minority stake in the project would enable the company to benefit from a portion of the stable cash flows the facility would produce. More importantly, the project would provide a meaningful benefit to the company's existing natural gas pipeline system. It would drive meaningful volume growth on its existing pipelines and could open the door to additional expansion opportunities. In short, the project would be a needle-mover for the MLP. It expects to "realize significant incremental cash flows from transportation of natural gas on our Trunkline pipeline system and other Energy Transfer pipelines upstream from Lake Charles," co-CEO Tom Long said when discussing the project in the past.
Nearing the finish line
Despite a series of setbacks, Energy Transfer has continued to press on with Lake Charles LNG. It recently took another positive step forward by securing Chevron as a meaningful customer. While it still has some work to do, it's increasingly likely that the company will finally approve the project next year. That would significantly enhance and extend its long-term growth outlook, giving it even more fuel to grow its lucrative 6.9%-yielding distribution.
