Crypto prices are up a ton since Donald Trump won the presidential election in early November, and crypto prices by and large have held up pretty well in the face of a recent rise in Treasury yields. Most investors are still bullish on the regulatory tailwinds Trump could unleash when he takes office. Few tokens have benefited more than XRP (XRP 0.58%), the world's third-most valuable cryptocurrency, and Dogecoin (DOGE 1.25%), the world's seventh-most valuable cryptocurrency. Since election night, XRP has catapulted more than 500% to $3.28, while Dogecoin has increased 140% to $0.38 (as of Jan. 16). Is it more likely that XRP hits $4 or Dogecoin hits $0.60 in 2025?
Different catalysts ahead
To be sure, XRP and Dogecoin will both benefit from a sustained crypto bull market. However, XRP has seemingly played catch-up because it hasn't benefited from the crypto boom in recent years las much as Dogecoin.
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sued Ripple, the company behind XRP, and its founders in 2020 for selling XRP as an unregistered security in 2013. The crypto community has paid close attention to the case because it could have set a precedent regarding how much regulatory oversight the SEC has over cryptocurrencies. Most crypto proponents would like to avoid the SEC's many securities laws and instead be overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The lawsuit has been an overhang for XRP. In 2023, a federal judge ruled in XRP's favor, although the SEC had said last year it would appeal parts of the decision. The SEC filed the opening brief in its appeal of the ruling on the Jan. 15 deadline. Still, SEC Chair Gary Gensler will step down once Trump becomes president, so many investors and analysts expect the agency to drop the lawsuit under new leadership.
Many suspect that once the lawsuit is over, there could be spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which would likely increase adoption of XRP. Companies have already submitted filings to begin the process of creating such ETFs, and simialr spot ETFs served as major catalysts for Bitcoin and Ethereum in 2024. Ripple has also rolled out a stablecoin called RLUSD that can be used on the XRP ledger and Ethereum's blockchain. Ripple's Senior Vice President of Stablecoins Jack McDonald told CNBC that XRP will serve as a bridge asset for RLUSD on the XRP ledger, increasing need for the token.
Dogecoin's catalysts aren't as clear as XRP's. Sponsors could file applications for ETFs, although that seems less likely than for XRP. However, Dogecoin has defied the odds time and again through its rabid community, which seems to buy the token intensely whenever someone like Elon Musk mentions it or if Bitcoin and crypto take off. It has significantly outperformed Bitcoin since 2020.
Which token will break through?
Both XRP and Dogecoin have the potential to surpass $4 and $0.60, respectively. These tokens tend to outperform Bitcoin in the boom times and underperform in down markets. Many suspect the crypto rally still has legs in 2025, and it could certainly pick up steam if inflation slows and Treasury yields decline (although recently the opposite has been happening).
However, I think XRP has more obvious potential catalysts that could propel the token past $4, especially if the SEC drops its lawsuit and it approves spot XRP ETFs. The XRP ledger is being used by financial institutions to better conduct cross-border payments, and it may grow more popular as RLUSD picks up adoption as well. Both XRP and Dogecoin will likely continue to be volatile, so I'd recommend a smaller, more speculative position in XRP. I don't have any interest in Dogecoin at this time.
