It's not just an enormous company. Amazon (AMZN +0.55%) is also one of the world's most recommended stocks. There's a good chance you own it, in fact, or have at least considered owning it at some point in the past. And for good reason. After all, it's the king of e-commerce, at least in the Western Hemisphere.
If you're looking for the best way to plug into the next chapter of e-commerce's growth story though, there may be a better option. That's Shopify (SHOP 1.37%), which in many ways is the opposite of what Amazon is. That's why it's such a compelling prospect.
The same, but (much more) different
Amazon doesn't just dominate the online shopping market. It largely created it, mainstreaming the idea back in the late 1990s when access to the internet was first becoming commonplace. Consumers loved "the everything store," and still do. Market research outfit eMarketer estimates Amazon controls roughly 40% of the online the retailing industry, which accounts for about 16% of the nation's total retail spending, according to numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau.
As might have been expected, however, the sheer size and the self-service nature (selling as well as buying) of the popular shopping website has presented challenges. Chief among them is the amount of competition every seller must contend with, including Amazon itself. A close second is the fact that it's difficult for an online seller to cultivate a deep relationship with a customer; these buyers are ultimately Amazon's customers.
Enter Shopify.
NASDAQ: SHOP
Key Data Points
Simply put, Shopify helps organizations build and manage their own e-commerce presence. From digital shopping carts to payment processing to marketing to inventory management (and more), this company helps online sellers operate independently of huge, impersonal, and crowded online malls like Amazon. Nutriseed, Worldwide Cyclery, and Florivera Skincare are just some of the up-and-comers that rely on Shopify to sell online. With Shopify, these brands are able provide the personalized experience and authenticity that consumers increasingly crave.
Boston Consulting Group reports that around 80% of U.S. consumers now expect at least some degree of personalization experience when doing business.
A platform like Amazon's just can't meaningfully offer this option to sellers, or to buyers.
Growth, past and projected
And the numbers confirm that companies are increasingly relying on the alternative that Shopify brings to the table. For the three-month stretch ending in December, this company's tech facilitated the sale of $69.7 billion worth of goods and services, up 24% year over year. That translates into nearly $2.2 billion worth of revenue, up 26% year over year, extending a trend that's been in place since its 2006 launch.
SHOP Revenue (Quarterly) data by YCharts
This is still just the beginning, though.
See, as much as Shopify's grown, it's still only scratched the surface of the opportunity. The Census Bureau reports the United States' e-commerce market alone is worth a little more than $1.1 trillion per year, while the nation's entire retail industry collectively does over $7 trillion in annual sales. With much of this business still moving online -- and plenty of room for it to do so -- market researcher Oberlo predicts the U.S. e-commerce market will grow at an average annual pace of about 9% through 2028. More to the point for interested investors, as more and more sellers recognize they've got viable alternatives to Amazon, the analyst community expects Shopify to win more of this growth to continue growing close to its current pace.
Data source: StockAnalysis.com. Chart by author.
Credit market-leading control of nearly one-third of the United States' e-commerce platforms, mostly, although similar dynamics apply internationally, where Shopify is gaining traction. It claims about one-tenth of the overseas e-commerce tech business for itself.
Worth the premium price
None of this is to suggest Amazon is completely powerless to discourage current and prospective sellers from signing up to sell with Shopify. It is responding to the threat. For example, Amazon dialed back the copycatting of its third-party sellers' top-selling products, letting its partners enjoy more of the sales they deserve. It's also offering generative artificial intelligence tools to its sellers so they can create and manage their listings faster.
Shopify stock is also expensive, priced at more than 90 times last year's likely earnings and more than 70 times this year's expected per-share profit of $1.54. This can limit the stock's near-term upside potential, not to mention fuel above-average volatility.
But this is also one of those cases where growth is so strong and so inevitable that the market supports a premium valuation.
In other words, as intimidating as the 350% run-up from 2022's low may be, there's still arguably more room for shares to continue this rally. Independently managed e-commerce platforms are where the online shopping industry is increasingly going. Shopify's breadth and depth of offerings mean it can monetize this demand no matter what its clients need.
