The Bitcoin (BTC 1.98%) chart has been a roller coaster ride recently.
The original and largest cryptocurrency rose to an all-time high of $106,182 per coin in January, then fell back as much as 25.8% over the next seven weeks. That's a sharp retreat from a long upswing -- Bitcoin has more than quadrupled in price over the last two years. To put the gains in context, the S&P 500 (^GSPC 0.21%) market index showed a total return of 49% over the same period:
Bitcoin Price data by YCharts
So Bitcoin snapped a long winning streak, dipping below $80,000 per coin for the first time since last November. Can the cryptocurrency get back to robust gains or Is the bull run all done?
The bearish case
First and foremost, some investors see very little value in Bitcoin in the first place. Warren Buffett wouldn't buy all the Bitcoin in the world for $25, because "it isn't going to do anything." It isn't a business operation, or a valuable lot of real estate, or a patch of food-producing farmland. The value of this digital asset isn't based on anything real, so the only way to make money with it is to find a buyer willing to pay a higher price.
From that perspective, Bitcoin is long overdue for a price correction. The current market value of $1.62 trillion is a lot more than $25, after all.
And even if you see significant value in Bitcoin assets, you could still argue that it's overpriced. 2024 was packed with potentially game-changing price catalysts for Bitcoin. With the introduction of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based on spot Bitcoin prices, the fourth halving of Bitcoin mining rewards, and the introduction of a more crypto-friendly U.S. government all in the rearview mirror, maybe there's no room for further gains in 2025.
Furthermore, many crypto investors are nervous about recent advances in quantum computing. The next-generation computing technology will probably make current encryption algorithms breakable and worthless in the long run -- including the popular SHA-256 hashing system at the heart of Bitcoin's encryption security. Alphabet (GOOG +0.30%) (GOOGL +0.22%) and Microsoft (MSFT 0.95%) have taken massive leaps forward in recent months, arguably accelerating the quantum computing progress by several years. The thinking is that criminals and fraudsters must be on the threshold of hacking Bitcoin's digital transaction ledger to pieces.
Where the Bitcoin bulls hang their hats
The Bitcoin whitepaper compares the cryptocurrency to physical gold. Instead of buying picks, shovels, mines, and ore refining equipment, Bitcoin miners invest in data centers and electric power. Either way, the two types of miner generate a scarce and therefore valuable resource. They are also useful in the real world: Gold is found in jewelry, medical devices, and electronics while Bitcoin offers a robust and flexible transaction ledger. Warren Buffett was never much of a gold investor, so his aversion to Bitcoin makes sense in this light.
The ETF catalyst delivered some of its value before the actual event. Bitcoin prices rose 72% from early October, 2023 to January 12, 2024. In this time span, the rumor mill chatter about spot Bitcoin ETFs turned into solid expectations, culminating in their approval and introduction. But that's not the end of their value creation. The most popular name on the list, the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT +1.48%) holds $47.4 billion of Bitcoin in a Coinbase Global (COIN 1.63%) custody service. This robust inflow of funds should be the start of a long-term trend. Deep-pocketed institutional investors aren't ready to open cryptocurrency brokerage accounts yet, but ETFs are easy to use in a standard stock portfolio. So the Bitcoin ETFs open the door to a larger (and richer) population of potential long-term investors.
As for the Trump administration's cryptocurrency policies, only time will tell how they are changing the Bitcoin market. The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve isn't shaping up to the Bitcoin-buying bonanza some crypto holders had expected, but more of a quiet alternative to gold reserves. A more laissez-faire approach to cryptocurrency regulation may indeed accelerate the widespread adoption of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, but the final regulations are probably still many years away.
The quantum computing threat may sound terrifying. In reality, Bitcoin is very much under active development and should be immune to these attacks long before quantum computers are powerful enough to pose a real threat. There are math problems too difficult to solve with a mature quantum computer, and encryption systems are already adopting these stronger algorithms by the boatload. Meanwhile, even the most optimistic forecasts expect quantum computers to stay in the toys-and-experiment stage for at least five more years.
CRYPTO: BTC
Key Data Points
The long-term view
Finally, the shape of this halving cycle looks quite familiar.
Charts never tell the whole story, of course. Previous results are no guarantee of future gains. Still, the halvings make a significant difference to the economics of Bitcoin mining, effectively slashing the financial rewards in half while production expenses stay the same. In the long run, this production model only works if Bitcoin prices rise over time. Along the way, each halving shakes out underfunded or inefficient miners while the top producers continue to make a good living.
On that note, the current halving cycle is fairly close to former examples. The second and third halvings unleashed price jumps measured in thousands of percent -- about a year and a half after each halving of the mining rewards. If the ongoing halving's calendar stays on track, I'd expect peak prices in the fall of 2025, followed by another crypto winter. Things could be different this time, but that's what Bitcoin's pricing history looks like.
No, the Bitcoin bull run isn't over
So the Bitcoin bears have their arguments, but the bulls bring a stronger case to the table. With or without the halving effects, Bitcoin is becoming the digital gold standard for value storage. Even if I never use Bitcoin to pay for a candy bar, a car, or a house, this cryptocurrency and its digital ledger look poised to replace savings accounts over time. That's a multi-trillion-dollar market, ripe for modernization on a global scale.
That's why expect Bitcoin to keep building market value, perhaps accentuated by a temporary price spike later this year. In my eyes, Bitcoin is a great asset to own in the long term. The recent price drop is just another short-lived squiggle on the charts.
