Shares in animal pharmaceutical company Zoetis (ZTS 1.51%) have been under a cloud since the release of the company's fourth-quarter earnings report in mid-February. The Q4 numbers were fine, but the company's revenue guidance fell short of expectations. That said, a fair number of variables could influence Zoetis' revenue in 2025, and focusing just on revenue guidance might not be the best way to think about the stock.
Zoetis revenue in 2025
One major alternative consideration could end up providing an upside or downside to expectations. Management and investors know that competitors have new products entering the market in 2025. Indeed, on the earnings call, CFO Wetteny Joseph said the operational organic revenue growth forecast of 6% to 8% "included a range of assumptions for new market entrants and conditions across our business." However, it's unclear how successful the new entrants will be, or whether they will affect Zoetis more or less than management expects in its guidance.
NYSE: ZTS
Key Data Points
A second alternative consideration could provide an upside. According to Joseph, management's guidance "does not include products that have not yet been approved." However, during the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference in January, CEO Kristin Peck showed a chart indicating three expected pharmaceutical product approvals over the next 12 months, five over the next 12 months to 36 months, and seven over the next 36 months to 60 months.
As such, there's potential for some contribution from products potentially approved in 2025. Indeed, Peck told conferencegoers: "We're also super excited that we're going to have at least one approval each year for [the] next several years that will drive significant growth for the company."
The potential approvals do provide some upside to 2025 guidance. Thinking longer-term, they are what will drive growth at Zoetis. Management believes pharmaceutical products approved for chronic kidney disease (dogs) and oncology (dogs) could open up markets worth up to $5.7 billion. That's something to think about.
