As the Trump administration's "Liberation Day" tariffs rattle the markets, it might seem like a terrible time to invest in electric vehicle (EV) stocks. Those higher tariffs could disrupt supply chains, drive up labor and component costs, and make EVs much more expensive.
Shares of Tesla, the bellwether of the sector, have already dropped 40% this year. That decline can be attributed to its slowing sales, shrinking margin, Elon Musk's polarizing work with the Trump administration, and rising tariffs.
Image source: Getty Images.
Yet Tesla's ongoing issues could represent opportunities for smaller EV makers. I believe three of those underdogs -- Rivian (RIVN +3.05%), Nio (NIO 0.46%), and Polestar (PSNY +0.34%) -- deserve some more attention in this chaotic market.
Rivian
Rivian sells the R1T pickup, R1S SUV, and custom electric delivery vans. It plans to launch its next vehicle, the cheaper R2 SUV, in 2026. Its deliveries surged 147% to 50,122 vehicles in 2023 but rose just 3% to 51,759 vehicles in 2024, as it dealt with supply chain constraints, stiff competition, and a temporary shutdown of its Illinois plant.
NASDAQ: RIVN
Key Data Points
For 2025, Rivian aims to deliver only 46,000 to 51,000 vehicles as it shuts down its Illinois plant again for additional upgrades ahead of its R2 launch next year; grapples with more component shortages; deals with the aftermath of the fires in Los Angeles, one of its top markets; and braces for the Trump administration's incoming tariffs.
That outlook seems dim, but Rivian's gross margin actually improved from negative 188% in 2022 to negative-24% in 2024, and it anticipates a "modest" gross profit in 2025. Those improvements were driven by its lower manufacturing costs, the expansion of its higher-margin software and services business, and its sales of its own regulatory credits to other automakers. It won't turn profitable anytime soon, but that progress might pave the way for a smooth rollout of the R2 next year.
With an enterprise value of $12.6 billion, Rivian trades at just 2.3 times this year's sales. Tesla trades at 6.9 times this year's sales. Therefore, any positive developments regarding its current vehicles or the upcoming R2 could drive its stock higher.
Nio
Nio is a Chinese maker of electric sedans and SUVs that has been taking some baby steps into Europe. It differentiates itself from its competitors with removable batteries that can be quickly replaced at its own battery-swapping stations.
NYSE: NIO
Key Data Points
Nio's deliveries more than doubled in 2020 and 2021, then rose 34% in 2022 and 31% to 160,038 vehicles in 2023. That deceleration, which it attributed to supply chain issues, tougher competition, and China's cooling economy, spooked the bulls.
But in 2024, Nio's deliveries grew 39% to 221,970 vehicles as it grew its domestic market share with its ET sedans, ES SUVs, and EC crossovers. It also launched its lower-end Onvo L60, which resembles Tesla's Model Y but starts at just $20,500. Its annual vehicle margin, which had dropped from 20.1% in 2021 to 9.5% in 2023, also expanded to 12.3% in 2024, as it sold a higher mix of premium vehicles.
This year, its new Firefly compact electric hatchback could significantly boost its deliveries in China and Europe. It could also shift some of its production to Europe to offset the region's rising tariffs on Chinese EVs.
Nio isn't expected to break even anytime soon, but it's growing, has plenty of cash, and is still partly subsidized by the Chinese government. With an enterprise value of $8.9 billion, Nio looks even cheaper than Rivian at 0.7 times this year's sales.
Polestar
Polestar, which was previously Volvo's performance brand before it was spun out as an independent EV maker, sells three luxury EVs: the compact Polestar 2, the Polestar 3 midsize SUV, and the Polestar 4 compact coupe SUV.
NASDAQ: PSNY
Key Data Points
Polestar's deliveries soared 80% in 2022 but grew only 6% in 2023, as some software problems drove it to postpone the launch of the Polestar 3 from late 2023 to mid-2024. It also hasn't reported its full-year results for 2024 yet, because of the restatement of its filings fo 2023 to correct some accounting errors, but it previously expected its revenue to decline by the "mid-teens" for the year as it dealt with slower-than-expected sales of the Polestar 3 and Polestar 4 in a tough market.
Those problems crushed its stock, but it's coming after Tesla this year with its "Trade in Your Tesla" deals of up to $20,000 toward the lease of a new Polestar 3. Those offers could gain more momentum as Tesla's brand loses its luster. Releasing its fourth-quarter and full-year earnings report -- which has already been delayed twice -- could also soothe its rattled investors.
Polestar is still deeply unprofitable, but analysts expect its revenue to more than double in 2025 as it launches its next vehicle, the Polestar 5 grand tourer, and expands its manufacturing plants in the U.S. and South Korea. With an enterprise value of $4.6 billion, it looks dirt cheap at 1.0 times its projected sales for 2025 -- and its stock could skyrocket if it gets its act together.
