Oil prices have tumbled this year. WTI, the primary U.S. oil price benchmark, has plunged from about $80 a barrel in early January to around $60 a barrel. The culprit has been the concern that tariffs will slow the global economy, driving down demand for crude oil.
Lower crude prices will impact oil company cash flows. However, some oil stocks are in a better position to navigate the lower oil prices than others due to their abundant low-cost oil resources. Three oil companies that can still thrive in the current environment are Devon Energy (DVN +1.22%), ConocoPhillips (COP +2.23%), and Chevron (CVX +1.75%).
Weighted to a world-class resource
NYSE: DVN
Key Data Points
Devon Energy has a premier multibasin U.S. onshore resource portfolio. The company produces oil and gas from the Rockies, Delaware Basin, Anadarko Basin, and Eagle Ford. That diversification helps reduce risk and enhances its long-term growth profile.
The Delaware Basin, which runs through west Texas and southeast New Mexico, is the crown jewel of Devon Energy's portfolio. The company gets 56% of its production from that world-class oil resource. That position will fuel the oil company for years to come. Devon has thousands of remaining drilling locations with an average breakeven level of $40 per barrel. Because of that, it can still make a lot of money drilling in the region at the current oil price point.
The company's low-cost resources position it to produce a lot of cash even in the current environment. Devon was on track to make over $3 billion in free cash flow this year when WTI was above $70 a barrel during the first quarter. While that number will decline if crude remains around $60, Devon will still produce a lot of excess cash this year. It plans to return about 70% of that money to shareholders via its dividend and share repurchases, retaining the rest to strengthen its already rock-solid balance sheet.
Adding to its low-cost supply
NYSE: COP
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ConocoPhillips has a global portfolio of low-cost resources. The company held about 20 billion barrels of oil equivalent resources with a supply cost below $40 a barrel for WTI. It added even more low-cost resources last year when it acquired Marathon Oil. That deal topped off its tank by adding more than 2 billion barrels of resources with an average cost of supply below $30 per barrel for WTI.
The company's low-cost resources position it to produce a lot of cash in the current environment. ConocoPhillips initially expected to generate enough excess free cash flow this year to return $10 billion to shareholders via dividends and repurchases. While lower oil prices will impact the amount of excess free cash flow it produces this year, it could still achieve that capital return target thanks to its cash-rich balance sheet. ConocoPhillips ended last year with $6.4 billion of cash and short-term investments and another $1 billion of long-term investments. Meanwhile, it's working toward generating an additional $2 billion in cash via non-core asset sales.
Stress-tested for lower oil prices
NYSE: CVX
Key Data Points
Chevron has a globally integrated energy business. That integration between upstream (oil and gas production) and downstream (refining and chemicals) helps mute some of the impact of lower oil prices. The company also has a very low-cost global resource portfolio.
The energy giant has stress-tested its business for lower oil prices. Chevron forecasts that it can produce enough cash flow from operations to cover its high-yielding dividend (currently over 5%) and capital spending program at $50 oil through 2027 with room to spare. Meanwhile, the company has the balance sheet capacity to buy back shares at the low end of its $10 billion-$20 billion annual target range during that period at that price point.
Chevron is working to further enhance its low-cost resource portfolio by acquiring Hess. The deal would add a world-class position in offshore Guyana and other high-quality assets to diversify and enhance Chevron's portfolio. It would further bolster the company's low-cost supplies, putting it in an even stronger position to thrive during periods of lower oil prices.
Built to run on lower oil prices
The recent downdraft in crude prices will impact the cash flows that oil companies produce. However, Devon Energy, ConocoPhillips, and Chevron have very low-cost operations and strong balance sheets. Because of that, they can still thrive at lower prices by producing lots of cash that they can return to investors through dividends and share repurchases. That makes them lower-risk ways to invest in the oil patch.
