Almost unarguably, the most significant story in our time with the pharmaceutical industry is the emergence and sharp rise of GLP-1 obesity drugs. Front and center of this is Novo Nordisk (NVO +1.63%), the once-obscure Danish company that earned the first U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval for such treatments with its Wegovy back in mid-2021.
Even though the stock is down notably from the peak price it hit last year, it's still doing far better than in the pre-approval days. Competitors are biting at its heels in the weight loss segment, however, so is there any chance it could ascend those lofty heights again?
The great weight loss drug game
Novo Nordisk bears would be quick to point a paw at the company's so far sole competitor in the GLP-1 race, Eli Lilly.
The powerful pharmaceutical competitor is already a top name in obesity drugs with its Zepbound, approved for the indication in late 2023, and a drug that's already stolen much fire from Wegovy.
With the understandably hot popularity of such treatments in obesity-beset America, numerous other developers are racing to get obesity treatments to market. One of the more prominent of these is biotech Viking Therapeutics, which is putting an oral medication through clinical trials.
NYSE: NVO
Key Data Points
Expanding waistlines, exploding demand
Novo Nordisk shareholders shouldn't be worried about this. Many analysts are predicting an explosion in weight loss drug sales, on the back of persistently heavy demand.
One is Research and Markets, which last month forecast that the global market for these medications would balloon to nearly $105 billion in 2035, from an estimated tally of $12.8 billion this year. And that's not even one of the more bullish predictions out there.
An eight-fold (at least) expansion of the market within only a handful of years will benefit every maker of such drugs, no matter how aggressively they're trying to take market share. And the companies that will be particularly resilient will be the veterans; as Novo Nordisk was a first mover, it'll surely reap the benefits of the monster upsurge.
