Between the uncertainty caused by President Donald Trump's tariff policy, consumers being increasingly reluctant to spend on discretionary purchases, and several other factors, a U.S. recession in 2025 looks a lot more likely than it did a few months ago.
Of course, nobody has a crystal ball, and there's no way to predict a recession with perfect accuracy. But many experts believe there's a strong possibility of a recession. JPMorgan Chase recently raised its probability of a recession to 60%, and a survey of top economists found a consensus 45% probability, just to name a couple of examples.
While a recession can cause significant stock market turbulence in the short term, from a long-term perspective, it has historically been a good time to start looking for opportunities when the S&P 500 is down more than 15% from the highs, as it is now. With that in mind, here are two stocks I just bought more shares of, and why I believe the long-term investment thesis for both is still intact.
Excellent momentum heading into 2025
To be sure, Pinterest (PINS +1.32%) wouldn't be immune to a recession. It largely makes money from advertising, and businesses of all kinds tend to pump the brakes on ad spending in tough times.
NYSE: PINS
Key Data Points
However, the company is doing a great job of setting itself up for success regardless of what the economy does for the rest of 2025. For one thing, the company's active user base grew 11% over the past year to its highest level ever, so even if advertisers slow down their spending, there will be significantly more people looking at their ads.
Plus, Pinterest's most impressive progress and momentum (as well as its biggest opportunity) is outside of the United States. The most rapid growth in the active user base is in the "rest of world" category, which is everything besides the U.S., Canada, and Europe, and makes up more than 55% of Pinterest's users. Not only that, but this segment is the least monetized and has the highest year-over-year growth rate in average revenue per user.
Pinterest has done an excellent job of managing expenses and increasing margins and is well positioned to make it through the tough times. With shares 46% below their 52-week high, I decided to add to my already substantial investment in the market downturn.
A rock-solid financial institution at a discount
Bank of America (BAC 1.71%) is a stock I've owned for more than a decade, but I just added more for the first time in several years. With shares trading for 23% below recent highs, and near their lowest price-to-book multiple since early 2024, now could be an excellent opportunity.
The bank's recent results look strong. In the first quarter, revenue and earnings per share grew by 6% and 18%, respectively, and the bank's deposit base, wealth management business, and investment bank all produced solid growth. Overall, deposits increased 2% year-over-year and total loans are 4% greater than a year ago.
In addition, consumer spending has been surprisingly resilient and asset quality looks very strong. Despite the economic uncertainty, Bank of America's consumer payment volume grew 4% year-over-year. Not only that, despite fears of consumers having trouble paying their bills, Bank of America's net charge-off ratio was 4 basis points lower than it was a year ago. Even credit card delinquencies declined on a sequential basis. Plus, if the Fed ends up lowering interest rates a few times this year, as many experts believe will happen, it could be a positive tailwind for the bank's net interest margin.
Of course, in a recession we could see loan demand fall and loan delinquencies move higher. But at a valuation that's barely above book value (and a recession at least partially priced in at this point), now could be a good time to take a closer look at this bank stock.
I just bought more of both
Pinterest and Bank of America were already top 10 stocks in my portfolio before the recent downturn, but I hadn't added to either position in a while. However, the recent crash created an opportunity to add to my highest-conviction long-term investments at a discount, and that's exactly what I decided to do after the tariffs were announced.
