Dogecoin (DOGE +1.87%) was founded as a joke by two friends in 2013 who used the famous "Doge" meme as inspiration. Little did they know, it would go on to reach a peak of $0.73 per token in 2021, which translated to an eye-popping market capitalization of almost $90 billion.
A lot of that value was created on the back of Elon Musk's support, which has been ongoing since 2019. In fact, Dogecoin's most recent rally was sparked by Musk's involvement in the Trump administration, where he temporarily ran an external government agency with a name that references the meme token.
But Musk's time at the White House has officially come to an end, so investors might be wondering what to do next. Is Dogecoin still a buy, or is this a sure sign to run for the hills?
Image source: Getty Images.
A timeline of Musk's Dogecoin support
Between 2019 and 2021, Musk regularly shared Dogecoin-related memes on social media and participated in friendly banter with other enthusiasts. Investors started to think he had a plan to create real value for the meme token, and that speculation reached a fever pitch in the lead-up to his appearance on Saturday Night Live.
During the show on May 8, 2021, Musk participated in a Dogecoin-themed comedy skit, which ended with him calling the meme token a "hustle." While it was a light-hearted joke, investors started to realize that Musk had no concrete plans to create value outside of his support on social media, so Dogecoin peaked at $0.73 per token that very night.
It plunged over the next 12 months, losing more than 90% of its value by mid-2022. It stayed dormant during 2023 and for most of 2024, until the U.S. presidential election. Musk threw his cash and his influence behind Donald Trump, who campaigned on a series of pro-crypto policies, and Dogecoin soared (along with most cryptocurrencies) when Trump eventually won the presidency.
A short time later, Trump announced plans to appoint Musk to run an external government agency tasked with reducing America's national debt by slashing spending. Musk named the agency the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE for short, which was a clear reference to his favorite cryptocurrency. However, to this day, Dogecoin has played no actual role in the agency, so its post-election rally was purely speculative.
Musk's time at the White House has now come to an end. He was classified as a "special government employee," which means he can only work within the administration for 130 days per year -- and Jan. 20 (Trump's Inauguration Day) to May 30 was exactly 130 days.
Dogecoin has serious fundamental issues
Dogecoin has plummeted by 59% from its recent 52-week high, but Elon Musk's departure from the DOGE agency isn't the biggest reason. The meme token has struggled to find a use case in the real world, and if consumers, businesses, and investors don't have a tangible reason to own it, then it's impossible to create sustainable value.
According to Cryptwerk, just 2,096 businesses around the world accept Dogecoin as payment for goods and services. If consumers can't spend Dogecoin at their favorite stores, then they have no reason to buy it. Businesses probably won't warm up to the meme token anytime soon, because its extreme volatility would make cash-flow management a nightmare.
Dogecoin also has a supply issue. There are 149.5 billion tokens in circulation as of this writing, and although there is a cap on how many more can be "mined" each year, there is no end date. In other words, new tokens will enter the market until the end of time. I've never seen an investment-grade asset with an unlimited supply that rises in value over the long term.
CRYPTO: DOGE
Key Data Points
It might be time to run for the hills
Dogecoin's post-election rally peaked at $0.47, which was well below its 2021 high of $0.73. That suggests investors were less willing to buy into the Musk-driven hype this time around. But the meme token is now trading at just $0.19, and there could still be plenty of room to fall if history is any guide.
Dogecoin bottomed at around $0.06 in 2022, which might be the level to watch. It implies there could be 68% downside from the current price, and with Musk now out of the White House and no improvements to the meme token's fundamentals, that might be the path of least resistance.
As a result, I think it might be time to abandon Dogecoin and run for the hills.
