SoundHound AI (SOUN 7.89%), a developer of artificial intelligence (AI)-powered audio recognition tools, saw its stock close at a record high of $24.23 on Dec. 26, 2024. But since then, its stock has declined nearly 60%.
Let's see why this hot stock fizzled out -- and if its pullback represents a buying opportunity for long-term investors.
Why did SoundHound AI's stock stumble?
SoundHound AI's namesake app identifies songs by listening to several seconds of recorded audio or a few hummed bars. However, most of its growth is fueled by Houndify, its developer platform, which allows businesses to create their own custom voice recognition tools.
Image source: Getty Images.
Houndify powers voice recognition features in restaurant ordering platforms, smart TVs, connected cars, and other devices. It's an appealing option for companies that don't want to send data to Microsoft, Alphabet's Google, or other tech giants that provide their own data-gathering voice recognition services.
SoundHound AI initially attracted a lot of attention for three reasons. First, its revenue surged 47% in 2022, rose another 47% in 2023, and jumped 85% in 2024. Second, the booming AI market drove a stampede of bulls to its AI-driven stock. Lastly, the AI chipmaking bellwether Nvidia (NVDA +1.73%) boosted its stake in SoundHound and integrated its voice recognition tools into its Drive platform for connected vehicles.
NASDAQ: SOUN
Key Data Points
Yet Soundify's stock stumbled for three reasons. First, most of its growth in 2023 and 2024 was driven by acquisitions -- including the restaurant AI company SYNQ3, the online food ordering platform Allset, and the conversational AI company Amelia. That strategy strengthened its position in the restaurant industry, but it also indicated it was running out of room to grow. Second, those acquisitions made it even tougher to break even.
Its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) margins came in at negative 73% last year -- which broadly missed its original target of achieving a positive adjusted EBITDA margin by 2024. Lastly, Nvidia liquidated its entire position in SoundHound AI earlier this year.
What are SoundHound AI's near-term catalysts?
SoundHound ended 2024 with a backlog of $1.2 billion, and it already serves big automakers like Stellantis, quick-serve restaurants like Chipotle, healthcare institutions like MUSC Health, and tech giants like Tencent. Automakers are adding more voice-activated features to their vehicles, restaurants are using more of its AI tools to process their drive-thru and phone orders, and healthcare institutions are processing more patient requests with Amelia's AI chatbots.
SoundHound could still have plenty of room to expand. From 2025 to 2035, the global voice agents market could grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34.8%, according to market research firm Market.us, as more companies replace their human workers with AI-powered voice agents.
For 2025, SoundHound expects its revenue to surge 97%. From 2024 to 2027, analysts expect its revenue to rise at a CAGR of 48%, from $85 million to $277 million. They also expect it to finally squeeze out a positive adjusted EBITDA of $5 million in 2027.
But its valuations could limit its near-term gains
That outlook seems promising, but a lot of its future growth has already been baked into its valuations. With a market cap of $4.1 billion, it already trades at 25.5 times this year's sales. It's also more than doubled its number of shares since it went public by merging with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) just over three years ago, and that dilution will likely continue as it relies on its secondary offerings to raise fresh cash and its stock-based compensation to subsidize its salaries and acquisitions.
So while SoundHound AI is still growing rapidly, it hasn't proven that it deserves its premium valuation or that its business model is sustainable. I might nibble on the stock after its recent pullback -- since its core market is still expanding -- but I wouldn't go all in until it meaningfully narrows its losses.
