Billionaires Ken Griffin and Steven Cohen rank among the 15 most successful hedge fund managers in history as measured by cumulative net gains, and both investors in the first quarter added to their positions in the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT +7.08%), an exchange-traded fund (ETF) issued by BlackRock.
Neither hedge fund has a particularly large stake, but their willingness to buy the fund as Bitcoin (BTC +2.58%) declined in the first quarter is still consequential. It shows financial institutions are far more comfortable owning the cryptocurrency than they were even a few years ago, and that bodes well for Bitcoin holders.
Indeed, Bitcoin currently trades at $110,000, but several Wall Street experts still anticipate huge gains in 2025. Here are some of the most optimistic forecasts:
- Geoff Kendrick of Standard Chartered expects Bitcoin to reach $200,000 this year. That implies 81% upside from its current price. Kendrick also believes Bitcoin can hit $500,000 in 2028.
- Peter Chun of Presto recently told CNBC Bitcoin could reach $210,000 this year. That implies 90% upside from its current price.
- Tom Lee of Fundstrat Advisors thinks Bitcoin can hit $250,000 this year. That implies 127% upside from its current price. Lee also believes Bitcoin can eventually reach $3 million.
- Josh Olszewicz of Canary Capital recently told Schwab Network Bitcoin can hit $300,000 this year. That implies 172% upside from its current price.
Importantly, the Bitcoin forecasts above imply identical upside in the iShares Bitcoin Trust. Read on to learn about the trends that could drive its price higher in the remaining months of the year.
Image source: Getty Images.
Instutional investors are buying spot Bitcoin ETFs
Boston Consulting Group estimates institutional investors had $128 trillion in assets under management (AUM) last year. If even a small percentage of that total were allocated to Bitcoin, its price could rise substantially in the future.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have led to an uptick in institutional adoption since winning SEC approval in January 2024. That's partly because they eliminate friction and high fees associated with cryptocurrency exchanges, but also because they legitimize Bitcoin to some degree.
Recently filed Forms 13F reveal two important trends concerning the iShares Bitcoin Trust and Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund, the two largest spot Bitcoin ETFs by AUM.
- Institutional capital invested in those spot Bitcoin ETFs nearly tripled during the past year to approach $16 billion in the first quarter.
- The number of large asset managers (i.e., those with at least $100 million in securities) with positions in those funds more than tripled during the past year.
Institutional investors are likely to diversify further into cryptocurrency in the coming years, partly because the Trump administration has taken a favorable stance on the industry, but also because cryptocurrency is now a $3 trillion asset class they cannot afford to ignore. As institutional dollars flow into cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin has a distinct advantage because it is the largest, most liquid, and best known of the bunch, according to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan.
NASDAQ: IBIT
Key Data Points
Companies are buying Bitcoin and state governments are creating strategic reserves
More than 150 public and private companies have added Bitcoin to their balance sheets, and many plan to add more. Most notably, Strategy (formerly known as MicroStrategy) has effectively turned itself into a Bitcoin investment vehicle. The company owns 582,000 BTC, purchased at an average price of $70,086, and plans to invest another $56 billion through 2027.
Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor believes Bitcoin will be a $200 trillion asset by 2045, which implies nearly 9,000% upside from its current market value of $2.2 trillion. So, Strategy has not hesitated to fund Bitcoin purchases by issuing debt and equity. Several companies inspired its success are making similar moves, including Mara and Semler Scientific.
Meanwhile, two states -- Arizona and New Hampshire -- recently passed laws establishing strategic Bitcoin reserves, and more than a dozen others have introduce similar bills. Those state governments could become buyers of Bitcoin. JPMorgan Chase analysts wrote, "As the list grows, with other U.S. states potentially considering adding Bitcoin to their strategic reserves, this could turn into a more sustained positive catalyst for Bitcoin."
Here's the big picture: Bitcoin has historically been volatile. In the last five years, it fell more than 25% from a record high seven times, and it fell more than 50% from a record high three times. But investors comfortable with type of volatility should consider buying a position in Bitcoin or a spot Bitcoin ETF. Personally, I doubt its price will reach $300,000 in 2025 -- even $200,000 seems like a stretch -- but those figures may be within reach over the next few years.
