Joby Aviation (JOBY 6.51%), a developer of electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, probably hasn't minted any new millionaires since its public debut. Its stock opened at $10.62 after it went public by merging with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) nearly four years ago, but it only trades at about $11 as of this writing.
Joby's stock didn't take off because it barely generated any revenue, it was racking up steep losses, and it traded at sky-high valuations. Elevated interest rates, tariffs, and other macro headwinds made its stock even less appealing. But could this speculative eVTOL stock finally take off and deliver millionaire-making returns?
Image source: Joby Aviation.
What does Joby Aviation do?
Joby's first eVTOL aircraft, the S4, can carry a pilot and four passengers, travel for 100 miles on a single charge, and reach a maximum speed of 200 mph. It's also developing a hydrogen-powered version, which charges faster and travels five times farther. It currently operates five aircraft in its test fleet, including one hydrogen-powered version.
Joby and its industry peers expect eVTOL aircraft to gradually become cheaper, greener, and easier-to-land alternatives to traditional helicopters. It's currently backed by big investors and customers like Toyota and Delta Air Lines.
Delta plans to work with Uber to launch air taxi services using Joby's S4 aircraft in New York and L.A. over the next few years. However, those plans hinge on the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) full approval of its commercial passenger flights in the U.S., which isn't expected to happen until late 2025 or early 2026.
Joby holds a $131 million contract with the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) to deliver up to nine eVTOL aircraft to the U.S. Air Force (USAF). It's already delivered the first two aircraft to Edwards Air Force Base (AFB), and it aims to deliver the next two aircraft to MacDill AFB this year. It also completed test flights in South Korea, Japan, and the U.A.E. It delivered its first overseas aircraft in Dubai last month, and it plans to launch its first air taxi flights there in early 2026.
NYSE: JOBY
Key Data Points
Why hasn't Joby's stock taken off?
Before it went public, Joby claimed its revenue would rise from zero to $131 million in 2024, $721 million in 2025, and $2.05 billion in 2026. But in reality, it only generated $136,000 in revenue from its USAF contract in 2024 as it racked up a staggering net loss of $608 million.
That big miss disappointed its investors, and rising interest rates throughout 2022 and 2023 drove many investors away from speculative stocks like Joby, its rival Archer Aviation (ACHR 5.29%), and other unprofitable SPAC-backed companies.
For 2025, analysts expect Joby to generate just $2 million in revenue as it slightly narrows its net loss to $543 million. Most of that revenue should come from its USAF contract, but it could also generate modest revenues from its test flights with local partners.
If Joby gains full FAA approval for its commercial flights in the U.S. and expands its air taxi services in Dubai and other overseas markets, its revenue could surge over the next few years. Assuming that happens, analysts expect Joby's revenue to jump to $60 million in 2026 and more than triple to $213 million in 2027.
But it's still expected to stay deep in the red as it scales up its business -- and it could continue to dilute its own shares (which already increased 31% since its public debut) with more secondary offerings and stock-based compensation.
On the bright side, its big backers could prevent it from running out of cash before it ramps up its production. In 2024, Joby secured more than $1 billion in fresh funding (a two-tranche $500 million investment from Toyota and $522 million in public offerings). It still ended its latest quarter with $813 million in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments, and its low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.26 gives it plenty of room to raise fresh funds.
Could Joby generate millionaire-making gains?
Joby could grow a lot bigger if it maintains its early mover's advantage in the nascent eVTOL aircraft market. But with a market cap of $9.59 billion, it already trades at 45 times its projected revenue for 2027. Archer Aviation, which is worth $6.58 billion, trades at 15 times its 2027 revenue.
Joby still looks a bit too pricey relative to its growth potential and industry peers. It might soar higher over the next few decades if it successfully disrupts the helicopter market and stays ahead of its competitors, but I'm reluctant to call it a potential "millionaire maker" at these levels. Speculative investors can certainly nibble on Joby's stock today, but they shouldn't be too surprised if it gets cut in half during a market downturn.
