Apple (AAPL 0.46%) isn't having a great year. As of July 16, shares are down 16% in 2025. This negative trend hasn't prevented the stock from soaring 562% in the previous 10-year period. Worries about tariffs and slow progress with artificial intelligence (AI) might be the key factors on the minds of investors these days.
But let's say that you're not deterred. If you buy Apple shares today with $10,000, will that starting sum turn into $1 million by 2035?
Image source: Getty Images.
Becoming a dominant tech enterprise
Apple's success over the years has largely come down to the company's expertise in brand management, its innovative culture that consistently introduces popular products, and its design expertise that prioritizes the user experience. It's not just about the iPod, iPhone, MacBook, iPad, AirPods, or Watch, for example, but about how these devices seamlessly integrate with the software and services to create Apple's powerful ecosystem.
This is one of the best businesses in the world with unmatched reach. During the first-quarter 2025 earnings call, CEO Tim Cook mentioned that there are more than 2.35 billion active Apple devices across the globe. That figure continues to creep higher over time. And it demonstrates just how ubiquitous Apple has become.
Equally if not more impressive is that these products provide Apple with the opportunity to generate more recurring revenue. ''We have well over 1 billion paid subscriptions across the services on our platform," CFO Kevan Parekh said on the Q2 2025 earnings call. With an offering set that ranges from financial services like Pay and Card, all the way to TV+, Music, and Fitness+, among others, Apple is proving that's it not just a hardware company.
For a business to build this kind of adoption, especially in the notoriously difficult arena of consumer technology, it requires the rare ability to truly resonate with consumers over a long period of time. Apple's brand is extremely strong, which drives customer loyalty and pricing power.
Apple's services segment posted 11.6% year-over-year revenue growth in Q2 (ended March 29), faster than the business overall. And this segment reports a stellar 75.7% gross margin, driving impressive profitability for the company. Apple raked in $24.8 billion in net income during the most recent fiscal quarter.
The management team hasn't shied away from returning capital to shareholders. Since the start of fiscal 2012, Apple has returned a whopping $987 billion to its investors. The vast majority has come from stock buybacks, with about $15 billion paid in dividends annually.
Apple over the next decade
A good rule of thumb in investing is that winners will continue winning. Apple is clearly a fantastic business that has many wonderful qualities. And it has done nothing but take care of its shareholders in the past.
But investors must view the situation today and over the next decade with clarity. With sustainable earnings per share (EPS) growth, Apple's stock price will be higher in 2035, I believe. That might be the only positive perspective that I have.
I don't think shares will outperform the broader S&P 500. After all, EPS is projected to increase at a yearly clip of 8.7% between fiscal 2024 and fiscal 2027, according to Wall Street consensus estimates. Extrapolating that forecast out to 2035 doesn't give investors much to be excited about. And the expensive price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 32.7 adds downside risk.
Apple could introduce another game-changing product that eventually rivals the iPhone in terms of its financial success. However, I believe this outcome has a very low probability of happening.
This brings me to the final conclusion: If you buy $10,000 worth of Apple shares today, you won't become a millionaire in 10 years. This implies a monster 100-fold increase in the stock price, or 58.5% per year. That's not a reasonable outlook to have for any company, let alone one that carries a huge $3.1 trillion market cap.
