A splashy $600 billion announcement may have just gotten Apple (AAPL 0.04%) in the White House's good graces. After months of worries over how tariffs will affect costs for iPhones made in China or India, Apple just projected a $100 billion increase in its spending plans over the next four years in the United States, including an investment in homegrown semiconductors. Apple stock shot up over 10% on the news.
Does this new spending plan mean you should load the boat with Apple stock? Here's the big picture that investors need to understand today.
NASDAQ: AAPL
Key Data Points
A $100 billion spending increase .... over four years
Last week, Apple claimed it would spend $600 billion in the United States. This is a large number, but it's also a bit misleading compared to other recent announcements from major tech companies such as Alphabet. The parent company of Google is forecasting $85 billion of capital expenditures this year, with much of that going to artificial intelligence (AI).
Meanwhile, Apple's spending is over four years. The latest increase adds $25 billion in annual spending, bringing the grand total up from $500 billion to $600 billion. What's more, this includes various expenses such as employee salaries, data center buildouts, money paid to suppliers, and more -- it's not exclusive to capital expenditures. Other big tech peers are likely spending this amount or more if you cast as wide a net Apple does when calculating total spending.
The announcement may put Apple in good standing with the U.S. government, but it's not a radical change from management. The company is still doing the bulk of its manufacturing in China, and this new commitment only represents a slight deviation from its previously announced plans.
Data by YCharts.
Improving financial performance
Financial performance and earnings power are what matter for Apple stock. Last quarter, revenue growth hit its highest level since 2022, though it was still below 10% year over year.
The growth is coming from its software services division as well as the iPhone, the key drivers for the business over the last decade. iPhone sales showed strong growth but have posted many quarters of stagnation, which should worry investors. This is a mature product that has seen declining unit volumes and upgrade cycles for years.
Services revenue keeps growing quickly but is at risk of losing its cash cow Google Search payment if an antitrust lawsuit goes the wrong way. Apple receives an estimated $20 billion a year from Google to make it the default search engine, or about 15% of Apple's overall operating income. This could be wiped out overnight if the lawsuit doesn't work out for them.
Image source: Getty Images.
The big picture with Apple stock
In totality, Apple's announced spending plans may seem ambitious but are actually not a huge change from its long-term roadmap. It was already investing in component manufacturing in the United States, and this is just a modest increase in that context. The stock's 12% month-to-date gain may be fleeting as a result.
But should investors buy the stock today? Apple is the slowest-growing company among the "Magnificent Seven", outside of Tesla, which is grappling with declining sales. The others are putting up solid double-digit revenue growth quarter after quarter. Despite this slow growth, Apple stock trades at a premium to several of its peers on a price-to-earnings basis. Its P/E ratio of 35 is also significantly higher than that of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 indexes.
This leads me to believe that Apple is overvalued, especially following its recent gains from the $600 billion spending announcement.
