During the past decade, Bitcoin (BTC 3.85%) has been the top-performing asset in the world, and it hasn't even been close. In fact, in five of those years (2016, 2017, 2020, 2023, and 2024), Bitcoin posted triple-digit percentage returns.
Back in November 2015, Bitcoin traded between $300 and $400. A decade later, it trades for $103,000. So the big question becomes: Where will Bitcoin be in 10 years?
The case for Bitcoin hitting $1 million
The growing consensus is that Bitcoin could hit a price of $1 million soon. According to Coinbase Global (COIN +1.83%) Chief Executive Officer Brian Armstrong, Bitcoin will hit $1 million by 2030. Cathie Wood of Ark Invest thinks Bitcoin will hit $1.2 million by 2030.
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Based purely on historical track record, Bitcoin would appear to be a strong candidate to fulfill these expectations. At times, Bitcoin's rate of growth has been exponential. Consider, for example, that it only took Bitcoin seven months to go from $100 to $1,000, and another eight months to go from $1,000 to $10,000.
The path to $100,000, though, was considerably longer. Bitcoin first hit $10,000 in November 2017. But it took slightly more than seven years for Bitcoin to rise from $10,000 to $100,000 in December 2024.
That's why I think the move from $100,000 to $1 million is going to take longer than many people think. Most likely, it will take seven years or longer. So, as a conservative estimate, I'm predicting that Bitcoin will hit $1 million in 10 years.
Beware the four-year Bitcoin cycle
One important factor to keep in mind is that Bitcoin typically moves in four-year cycles, punctuated by periods of boom and bust. Generally speaking, there is a big decline every four years. For example, Bitcoin lost 58% of its value in 2014, 74% of its value in 2018, and 64% of its value in 2022.
CRYPTO: BTC
Key Data Points
Not to be a pessimist here, but if the four-year cycle holds true once again, that means Bitcoin could be on track for a similar type of disastrous performance in 2026. And that would certainly necessitate more time required to hit the $1 million price level.
The good news is that, at the completion of every four-year cycle, Bitcoin tends to hit another all-time high. So, if $126,000 turns out to be the high for this cycle, then Bitcoin could potentially hit the $1 million mark during the next cycle. Most likely, though, it will take two complete cycles, or at least eight years.
That lines up with Bitcoin's trajectory from $10,000 to $100,000. There was a brief rest stop at the $69,000 level in 2021 before Bitcoin lost 64% of its value in 2022. From there, Bitcoin had to start all over again from a much lower base price.
The big takeaway here: Beware any future price target that claims the Bitcoin four-year cycle is no longer a thing. Admittedly, Bitcoin's historical volatility appears to have waned. And a strong base of institutional investor support for Bitcoin means that sharp declines are much less likely.
However, it's also hard to believe that any asset will increase in price, year after year, without some sort of pullback along the way. That's why Bitcoin's performance this year has been so troubling. Despite the most pro-crypto president in history occupying the White House, Bitcoin is only up about 10% this year.
Can Bitcoin grow at 25% per year?
Hitting a price of $1 million within 10 years implies a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25%. That's certainly within reason for Bitcoin, even if its pace of growth continues to slow.
As recently as 2024, Bitcoin was doubling in value every year, so there's plenty of fuel left in the tank. If the U.S. government ever decides to go all-in on its new Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, that might be enough to ignite the next big Bitcoin rally.
By 2035, I'm fully expecting Bitcoin to hit $1 million. As a result, even a modest investment today could pay off big later, as long as you're prepared to wait.
