Bitcoin's (BTC +1.68%) price hit an all-time high of $126,198 on Oct. 6. That marked a gain of more than 30% from the beginning of the year. But as of this writing, it trades at about $85,000 -- and it's declined about 9% year to date. Bitcoin gave up all of its gains for the year as the unpredictable macro environment drove more investors to take profits and retreat from the speculative crypto market. A lack of clear near-term catalysts likely exacerbated that pressure.
But despite those near-term challenges, I think Bitcoin is still the best cryptocurrency to nibble on in this volatile market. I wouldn't invest my life savings in Bitcoin, but I think a modest $100 investment -- which would only get you about 0.0011 Bitcoin right now -- could still be churned into a few thousand dollars as some longer-term catalysts kick in.
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What are Bitcoin's long-term catalysts?
Bitcoin is the world's most valuable cryptocurrency. With a market cap of $1.7 trillion, it's also the third most valuable commodity after gold ($29.3 trillion) and silver ($3.2 trillion). Three long-term catalysts drove it to the top of the crypto market. First, it launched its coin in 2009, back when the concept of cryptocurrencies still seemed like a fantasy. That first-mover advantage helped it stay ahead of the other blockchains and tokens that followed its lead.
CRYPTO: BTC
Key Data Points
Second, Bitcoin was mined with an energy-intensive proof-of-work mechanism that required its miners to solve cryptographic puzzles with their computers to earn the coins as rewards. Every four years, the rewards for mining are cut in half with a scheduled halving -- so it becomes increasingly difficult to mine the token for a profit.
Bitcoin also has a fixed maximum supply of 21 million coins, and 19.9 million of those have already been mined. The last Bitcoin is expected to be mined by 2140. That scheduled scarcity makes it more similar to gold and silver than other cryptocurrencies.
Lastly, Bitcoin is attracting a lot of attention from retail, institutional, corporate, and government investors. The approvals of its first spot price exchange-traded funds (ETFs) made it easier to invest in Bitcoin, and big financial institutions like BlackRock and tech companies like Strategy are still accumulating the token.
El Salvador and the Central African Republic already recognize Bitcoin as legal tender, and more inflation-wracked countries could follow that lead. The Trump administration also proposed the creation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve -- to store the government's seized Bitcoins and use tax-free methods to accumulate more Bitcoin -- earlier this year. That firm support indicates that Bitcoin, which is priced in U.S. dollars, could become a global hedge against inflation.
Why should investors tune out the near-term noise?
Bitcoin remains a divisive investment for the bulls and bears. Strategy's co-founder and Executive Chairman Michael Saylor expects Bitcoin's price to reach $21 million by 2046, but Nobel Prize-winning economist Eugene Fam believes it will go to zero within the next decade.
I believe both arguments are too extreme. Bitcoin has already gained too much momentum among the big investors to go back to zero, but soaring 23,000% to $21 million would boost its market cap to nearly $416 trillion. That's nearly 10 of today's Nvidias, the world's most valuable company.
For Bitcoin's price to soar that high, the U.S. dollar might need to crash. That hyperinflation probably wouldn't occur unless the U.S. economy collapsed in a cataclysmic event.
So instead of betting on a huge global depression, I believe Bitcoin will land somewhere between those two targets. If we go back 20 years, gold was trading at just $477 per ounce. Today, it trades at about $4,200 per ounce. So if Bitcoin is actually digital gold -- as many of its proponents claim -- it could rise at least 10-fold during the next two decades. That makes it a good cryptocurrency to invest in today, even if it goes through some wild swings during the next few years.
