During the summer, Ethereum (ETH +0.36%) looked like an easy, slam-dunk cryptocurrency investment. After doubling in price within the span of just weeks, Ethereum soared to a new all-time high of $4,954 in August.
Since then, of course, Ethereum has fallen back to earth. It's now trading for just $3,200. But that may only be a temporary stop on a new trajectory higher. According to Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat, Ethereum could hit a price of $9,000 in 2026. So is he right?
Reasons to be optimistic about Ethereum
For nearly a decade, Ethereum has been a star performer in the crypto market. Since launching in July 2015, the world's second-largest cryptocurrency is up more than 100,000%. The only major cryptocurrency that has outperformed Ethereum over the past decade is Bitcoin (BTC 0.35%).
So it's perhaps no surprise that Lee is bullish on the future prospects of Ethereum. As he sees it, there are two very good reasons why Ethereum could be on the path to $9,000 in 2026.
One is Ethereum's very robust global developer base. This is what drives usage and activity. The other is what Lee refers to as "technical resilience," or the ability to maintain 100% uptime performance for its core blockchain.
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Together, these factors have made Ethereum a true best-in-class Layer-1 blockchain. It has become the building block for nearly everything that happens in the blockchain and cryptocurrency space. That is especially true for the burgeoning area of decentralized finance (DeFi), where Ethereum remains a true behemoth. Currently, Ethereum accounts for nearly two-thirds of all total value locked (TVL) in the DeFi world.
Institutional adoption and asset tokenization
But that may be just the beginning. As Lee sees it, the next wave of growth for Ethereum will be powered by institutional adoption. This refers to Wall Street banks, financial institutions, and fintech companies embracing the Ethereum blockchain platform for their own projects. As Lee has noted in the past, Ethereum is now the preferred blockchain of Wall Street, standing head and shoulders above the competition.
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So what comes next? Lee thinks it will be real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, or the transformation of real-world assets (such as stocks and bonds) into digital assets that can be traded, stored, and used on the blockchain. In theory, tokenization will unlock all sorts of efficiency and liquidity gains, such that the biggest players on Wall Street will be forced to embrace Ethereum as the easiest on-ramp to the new world of blockchain finance.
Indeed, some big names have already embraced asset tokenization. BlackRock has already declared asset tokenization one of the next major trends on Wall Street. And this summer, Robinhood Markets showcased new tokenized equities that make it possible for foreign investors to gain 24/7 access to the U.S. equity market.
Reasons to be skeptical about Ethereum
So far, so good, right? A best-in-class blockchain giant appears to be on the path to mainstream acceptance on Wall Street. Moreover, it has a brand-new trillion-dollar financial trend to prop up its valuation. That's plenty of reason to be excited about Ethereum's future growth prospects.
But here's the thing: Tom Lee is also the chairman of Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR 6.22%), an Ethereum treasury company. The mission of this company is simple: Buy and hold as much Ethereum as possible. The higher the price of Ethereum goes, the better it is for Bitmine Immersion Technologies.
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Therefore, investors may want to discount any overly optimistic price targets for Ethereum. In his role as chairman of Bitmine, Lee has a clear incentive to promote the future prospects of the cryptocurrency that his company holds.
Moreover, as Lee acknowledged in a recent interview, Ethereum might actually slip all the way to $2,500 before making its ascent to the $9,000 price level. After all, there's no immutable law of crypto that says Ethereum must skyrocket straight up in price. As with all cryptocurrencies, there's likely to be significant volatility along the way.
Before investing in Ethereum, you should be comfortable with some of this inherent volatility. Remember: Ethereum fell all the way from $5,000 to $3,000 within the span of just three months. While this might be the result of market participants trying to find the right price for Ethereum, it might also be a warning of potential weakness within the Ethereum blockchain ecosystem.
Can Ethereum reach $9,000 by 2026? Right now, online prediction markets are only giving Ethereum a 3% chance of reclaiming the $5,000 price level this year, and only a 1% chance of making it to $9,000. So, until something changes dramatically over the next 12 months, you might want to keep your expectations in check.
