The $3 trillion valuation club is an exclusive group that only a handful of companies have ever joined. Currently, all four companies that have crossed this threshold are still in the club, with Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, and Microsoft all valued at $3 trillion or greater. And there's another company knocking on the door: Amazon (AMZN +0.16%).
Amazon currently has a market cap of $2.5 trillion, so it's only a stone's throw away from entering the $3 trillion club. However, I think that's just the beginning for the company since it has a lot going for it right now.
Amazon isn't the company you think it is
The first thing that comes to mind when you hear the name "Amazon" is its e-commerce platform, which sells nearly every product available. That's its most forward-facing segment to the consumer and what allowed it to grow from an upstart to the $2.5 trillion behemoth it is today, but it's not what I'm most excited about as an investor.
Two of Amazon's most important segments are ones that few people interact with on a daily basis. Its most important segments are the Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud computing business and its advertising division. Both of these are the company's fastest-growing segments, which align with importance and performance.
NASDAQ: AMZN
Key Data Points
AWS is capitalizing on two major tailwinds in cloud computing: artificial intelligence and a general migration to the cloud. Companies are starting to move away from on-premise computing equipment because it shifts the system maintenance to a third party and requires fewer equipment purchases.
AI is obviously huge in the broader market right now, and cloud computing providers play a significant role in delivering AI computing power to non-AI hyperscalers. Few companies have the resources to build large data centers to drive their AI aspirations, so they turn to a cloud provider like AWS to fulfill those needs. This is a tailwind that won't decrease anytime soon, and it's starting to show up in AWS' results.
During the third quarter, AWS grew revenue 20% year over year, the best in multiple quarters. The cloud provider is a crucial part of Amazon's profitability, too, as it accounted for 66% of total operating income during the third quarter. With a strong 35% operating margin, AWS' continued success will be a key part of driving Amazon toward a $3 trillion market cap.
Advertising isn't as large a component as AWS, but it's Amazon's fastest-growing segment, with revenue rising 24% year-over-year in the third quarter. Management doesn't break advertising out into its own business unit, but we know from other companies, such as Meta Platforms or Alphabet, that advertising profit margins are quite high.
This likely places advertising services in AWS-like operating margin ranges, showcasing its importance to Amazon's overall profitability picture.
The ad market is currently strong, and Amazon is expanding its dominance in this space. It will likely continue to have outsize growth compared to the rest of the business (besides AWS) and will lead the company to a $3 trillion market cap.
But how soon will it get there?
Amazon is only a year away from joining the club
With Amazon needing about 20% growth to join the $3 trillion club, it may not take that long to get there. Its growth rate has been accelerating in recent quarters, and if it keeps its spending under control to boost profits, it could easily reach the $3 trillion threshold by the end of next year.
AMZN Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth); data by YCharts. YoY = year over year.
Amazon is a strong pick for 2026, and I think it could reach the $3 trillion club by next year. If it fails to do so by 2026, I think it's likely to achieve it by 2027, as long as nothing drastic happens to the company or the market.
