Buying a cryptocurrency and then holding it for seven years is less about picking the flashiest chain of today, and more about picking the investment thesis that can inspire your conviction over time, survive your own boredom when the market is slow, and perhaps most importantly, survive a couple of gut-check drawdowns.
So with $3,000 to allocate today, is it smarter to load up on Bitcoin (BTC 3.15%) or XRP (XRP 2.79%) if you're (hopefully) going to be holding whatever you pick through 2033?
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Bitcoin's job is simple
Bitcoin's pitch is that it's an asset with a fixed supply and enough of a social consensus about its worth that it functions as a store of value.
The coin's supply cap is hard-coded at 21 million coins that can ever be mined. A lot of that supply, approximately 20 million Bitcoin, is already out in the world.
And if you're building a well-balanced crypto portfolio, it's the scarcity of the remaining supply and the guarantee that it'll only get scarcer and more challenging to produce in the future that makes this coin a must-have holding.
CRYPTO: BTC
Key Data Points
Nonetheless, the long-term risk that investors should not dismiss is the advent of quantum computing, which in theory could crack Bitcoin's encryption and enable the theft of coins at some point in the tail end of the next 10 years. There are some early steps taking place to update the coin to prevent that from being possible. Even so, the risk might not be fully addressed for years, or perhaps even too late to prevent a quantum attack which turns into a disaster for holders.
But the odds are good that Bitcoin's developers will adapt to the threat in time.
XRP needs to keep winning to outperform
XRP is a bet that its chain, the XRP Ledger (XRPL), becomes important financial plumbing, and that demand for the coin rises alongside its use.
There are a few pieces of evidence that suggest it's succeeding. The XRPL saw around 1.1 million daily transactions recently, and it hosts 7.6 million activated wallets. That activity could accelerate if financial institutions continue to onboard their capital to the network in hopes of managing it more readily than they could elsewhere.
CRYPTO: XRP
Key Data Points
Still, XRP competes against other money transfer rails and also against legacy systems for capital management. It needs to beat out that competition consistently over time to continue to grow. And while it'll likely win enough of its competitive fights to survive and expand somewhat for the next seven years, to continue to thrive and be a great investment, it'll need to be winning against bigger and bigger competitors all the while -- and that's a lot harder to believe in because it's a high bar.
So if you want a coin for a seven-year hold that demands the least babysitting and the least competitive jockeying, invest your $3,000 into Bitcoin, as it only needs to change elements related to its security rather than its core feature set.
