Breakfast News: Futures Fall On Tariff Fear
March 31, 2025
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Friday's Markets |
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| S&P 500 5,581 (-1.97%) |
| Nasdaq 17,323 (-2.7%) |
| Dow 41,584 (-1.69%) |
| Bitcoin $83,860 (-3.84%) |
1. No Trading Partner Seems Safe
President Trump's "Liberation Day" might extend to reciprocal tariffs against all trading partners, not just those he believes enjoy an unfair balance of payments with the U.S., telling reporters yesterday he'd "start with all countries" on April 2. A Goldman Sachs (GS +0.06%) survey suggests investors have priced in a 9% tariff rate but the investment bank expects the initial proposal to be higher at 15%, while the WSJ reported Sunday an across-the-board hit of 20% is back under discussion.
- All investors can do is control how they respond and prepare: Stocks are near their 2025 lows, with Nasdaq futures down over 1.2% and S&P 500 futures down more than 0.8%. The negativity spread to Asia with Japan's Nikkei falling 4% Monday, joining Hong Kong's Hang Seng index in correction territory.
- Employment data could also affect markets this week: Friday's jobs report is expected to show 135,000 non-farm jobs added in March, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%. It could be key to the risk of economic stagflation, as Goldman Sachs raised the chance of recession to 35% from 20%.
2. Next Up: A Thin Earnings Week
Cloud-based banking technologist nCino (NCNO +0.94%) will post fourth-quarter results Tuesday, after disappointing early investors with a 68% fall since IPO in 2020. The consensus suggests earnings at 3 cents per share, with modest growth over the year.
- Slightly trailing the S&P 500 over the past 5 years: Stock Advisor recommendation RH (RH 0.02%) releases a Q4 update Wednesday, after missing earning expectations in the previous quarter. The home furnishings brand has been struggling with a challenging property market. Analysts predict a tough start to the 2025 year.
- Down 11% in the past 12 months: It's third-quarter time from Conagra (CAG +4.26%) Thursday. The food brand giant is expected to post a 25% year-over-year EPS fall to 52 cents, with revenue predicted to drop 4.7% from Q3 last year to $2.89 billion.
3. Who'll be the Next Leaders in AI?
Meta (META +0.83%) CTO Andrew Bosworth has been setting out who he thinks will be the biggest winners in the AI battle. In an interview with the Possible podcast, he said Alphabet's (GOOG 0.51%) Google faces the biggest challenge to its business model.
- "These big companies from the last generation are obviously going to win the next generation": Referencing the conventional wisdom, he added "It almost never happens," and sees scope for new start-ups to "come out of nowhere."
- "All gravy": Unsurprisingly, Bosworth sees a great future for Meta in AI, after CEO Mark Zuckerberg revealed plans to spend more than $60 billion on capital investment this year. He says Microsoft (MSFT +2.20%) is in a "strong position," with Amazon (AMZN +0.30%) in the middle.
4. More AI News
Intel's (INTC +5.48%) 2-day Vision Event takes place today and tomorrow, with newly appointed CEO Lip-Bu Tan delivering the opening keynote in Las Vegas. The event is expected to draw more than 2,500 tech companies who want to build the future of AI.
- New AI health drive: Apple (AAPL 1.10%) has launched Project Mulberry, to deliver a major new AI doctor app, according to Bloomberg. The report says it could be out in spring or summer 2026, and will feature AI agents trained on data from in-house physicians.
- Quantum computing coming soon: Honeywell (HON 1.20%) plans to take its Quantinuum offshoot public "between the end of 2026 and sometime in 2027," says Barron's, though that timeline is flexible. Bloomberg previously suggested a likely target valuation of around $10 billion.
5. Foolish Fun
Do you think Lip-Bu Tan will prove a catalyst for Intel stock over the next five years? Debate with friends and family, or become a member to hear what your fellow Fools are saying.
