Doesn't everyone want a second chance, and doesn't the likelihood of doing better increase for the truly committed? So, too, in investing.
Companies out of bankruptcy -- and its sibling, the recapitalization -- can offer marvelous odds of reward to risk. While most investors smell only a foul odor, those who love these special situations exercise finely trained noses to select companies formerly flailing but today with flower-fresh post-bankruptcy balance sheets.
Such companies face great pressure not to blow their second chance, so investors can enjoy their first with favorable odds.
Finding freshness in financials
Bankruptcy's more demure sibling, the recapitalization, is also a balance sheet benefactor. The recap is usually a non-bankruptcy bankruptcy. Rather than wait for the sometimes lengthy bankruptcy process, an investor -- say King Kong Kapital -- puts cash into the flailing business to stave off Chapter 11 and earns a super sweet deal to boot. Such deals include some or all of large percentage stock ownership, warrants at highly attractive exercise prices, and preferred stock or traditional debt paying high interest rates. If we buy after and with careful selection, we obtain the new, stronger situation with more upside and less risk.
"Careful selection" is required. Sirius XM Radio
Nevertheless, Sirius is way too risky. With an unproven business model and uncertain ability to generate enough dependable free cash flow, it remains a speculation for those are willing to lose everything in pursuit of uncertain gains.
Here are four recaps and one recapper that offer investors the first shot at a company's second chance.
The Treasury performed a garden-variety recapitalization when it used taxpayer money to recapitalize banks and megasized insurer American International Group
So? AIG is insanely complex. Insurance is opaque -- who knows how the company invests its float and whether its underwriting makes any sense? But the management is gone that allowed the horrendous CDO investment decisions that Michael Lewis chronicles in The Big Short. Asset sales have boosted capital. Today's investors obtain lower-priced shares with far lower risk.
Other recaps include Goldman Sachs
Private bank recaps
Gerald Ford is a Texas-based distressed bank investor with a successful track record. Most recently, he and his Ford Financial Fund LP team recapitalized Pacific Capital Bancorp
The financier's fund injected $500 million into Pacific Capital Bancorp on excellent terms -- buying common shares at a split-adjusted $20 (shares are currently trading north of $25), as well as preferred stock convertible into common at $20. It resulted in the fund taking a 91% equity stake and 98% of the voting control of the company. The move was part of a deal that wrote down non-performing loans, giving the bank today an almost free upside on its legacy loan book. Carried on the books at a 90% writedown, these loans appear tantalizing to the special situations investor. That's why the current valuation of 1.5 times market capitalization to tangible book value is overstated.
View from the Hilltop
Ford is chairman of another company, Hilltop Holdings
Why special situations?
Abhorred recapitalizations can be profitable special situations. As lead advisor for The Motley Fool's premium stock service, Motley Fool Special Ops, I work with my team Mike Olsen (TMFAgewone) and Jim Royal (TMFRoyal) every day to bring members stocks thrown away by market emotion. The best ones such as Pacific Capital Bancorp offer risk largely wrung out and tantalizing and largely free upside.
Not only that, but our time frame for catalysts is usually no longer than one to three years, and often shorter. So with our March 2010 launch, major catalysts are coming up. Add in the recent market drop, and this may be the best time ever to join Special Ops.
And Special Ops, which reopens rarely, just happens to have 1,667 spots available starting Monday. Get on the list to be the first to learn when to join and also to receive my free report and video explaining our strategy and offering an actual, live, current Special Ops recommendation you can buy today with excellent odds of a four-bagger in one-to-three years -- simply the most inefficiently priced stock we've ever seen. Just enter your email address in the box below to get started!